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S&P 500 Aug 11 to Aug 15 Outlook

By News Robot on 2014 Aug 9 Sat 7:05

Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation actions around previous week close. Equal distance from previous week close established. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
3 Pushes Down target Y-0. 3 Pushes Down is not a high probability bottom formation, it is mainly a pause before continuation happens. Fit for the option expiration this week that disrupt the down trend for now.

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Comments
  • smilingsynic  August 10, 2014 at 21:18:45

    Several observations:

    1. Despite much intraday volatility, 1923.50 has been tagged each of the last seven days.
    2. Weekly trendline on SPX (based on swing highs) points to mid 1890′s. 32 week sma (we just completed the 32nd week of the year) points to the same area. Indeed, the ma and the trendline have been following pretty much the exact same path all year.
    3. If SPX opens Monday > 1925.50, and then price breaks below it, then we may get some strong selling. Note IF. It is after all opex week.
    4. It is also back to school on Tuesday. Hopefully for only the next three years or so.

  • Lawrence Chan  August 11, 2014 at 12:49:37

    #1 is a sign of strong buying similar to the 1st break of NDX back in year 2000

    #3 depends on how option MMs hedge their positions for the week. I suppose it is an over their dead bodies kind of thing before they will allow SPX 1890 to be breached.

    Will take a strong panic to force ES lower this week. Next week is something completely different though.

    It is ok to keep your position there, after all you worked very hard to get to where you are.

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