S&P 500 Jun 27 to Jul 01 OutlookBy on 2011 Jun 25 Sat 7:05
Rallied to Y+1 but failed to hold above it. That points to a pullback to Y-0. Instead, ES gapped thru Y-0 and dropped to 100% absolute range expansion to the downside that is slightly higher than Y-1. The bounce to 50% of the week’s range led to further selloff.
The pattern on S&P is more bearish comparing to the other 2 indices. It suggests that B-2 is in play early next week as the past 2 weeks have combined into a huge bear flag pointing towards a lot more down side risk.
If a short term bottom is found right at the current close and a rally begins from there, the bear flag formation can still continue while ES run up to 1300.