S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Apr 20, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Apr 13, 2015

All attempts to go higher last week are capped below the 1% boundary as forecasted last week. Forecast of strong downside risk was also materialized. Forecast from last week nailed the scenario completely. The breadth analog model did an excellent job again.

Forecast Starting Apr 20, 2015

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 17, 2015:

Upside capped at 1% with strong downside risk.
Significant sell shock risk of moving down beyond 2.5%.
Trend sell in place for more weaknesses in coming 2 weeks.

Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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