S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 15, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Jun 8, 2015


The expectation of volatile price actions was correct with 1% swing down and then 2% straight up. The risk of 5% downside move did not materialize as a hoax about a deal with Greece changed everything. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.

Forecast Starting Jun 15, 2015


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 12, 2015:
  • Volatile price actions of 2% or more both ways
  • If a swing top is formed in coming 2 weeks, risk of 8% or more decline increases

Report Snapshot


breadth_forecast_20150612

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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