S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 17, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Aug 10, 2015


Sideway market expectation was correct but China’s sudden devaluation actions amplified the magnitude of the two-way market from the expected 1% to 1.5%. Swing low formed as expected. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.

Forecast Starting Aug 17, 2015


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 14, 2015:
  • Mild bullish bias for the coming week
  • Turning mildly bearish going into 2nd and 3rd week
  • Summer price actions likely as volume continues to drop

Report Snapshot


market_breadth_forecast_20150814

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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