S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 24, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Aug 17, 2015
Mild bullish expectation panned out for the first half of the week. Even right after the release of the Fed minutes led to another attempt to push the market higher. As the narrative suddenly changed together with the weaknesses in Asian markets, the bearish expectation for the 2nd and 3rd week was pushed forward in schedule. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 24, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 18, 2015:
1% to 1.5% bounce potential for the coming week
Interesting split in terms of historical outcomes for which the closing of the week, if quite strong, will lead to more sell off in coming weeks
Volatility pattern suggests more intraday extreme swings in the making
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 24, 2015
Review of Forecast for Aug 17, 2015
Mild bullish expectation panned out for the first half of the week. Even right after the release of the Fed minutes led to another attempt to push the market higher. As the narrative suddenly changed together with the weaknesses in Asian markets, the bearish expectation for the 2nd and 3rd week was pushed forward in schedule. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 24, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 18, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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