S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Oct 5, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Sep 28, 2015
All week up expectation played out from the flush low formed early in the week. 1.5% rally from the week low led to 2.5% and more up side also worked out. Extreme volatility expectation was correct. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Oct 5, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 2, 2015:
Sudden sharp pullback of 1% to 1.5% within the week potential
Relatively calm market condition expected, comparing to the weeks before
Weak closing for the week will open door to sell shock the week after
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Oct 5, 2015
Review of Forecast for Sep 28, 2015
All week up expectation played out from the flush low formed early in the week. 1.5% rally from the week low led to 2.5% and more up side also worked out. Extreme volatility expectation was correct. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Oct 5, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 2, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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