S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jan 4, 2016
Review of Forecast for Dec 21, 2015
Note: No weekly forecast for the week of Dec 28, 2015 due to holiday schedule. Premium members got the update that last 2 days of the year was bearish in real-time commentaries before the selloff happened.
No 1.5% drop so the 2.5% selloff never triggered. Rallied into the long weekend from light trading and seasonal bias. The breadth analog model did nothing for the week.
Forecast Starting Jan 4, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Dec 31, 2015:
- Bottom out on Monday on breadth basis will kick start a rally of 2% or more
- Once 2% drop is in place continuation down to 3.5% to 5% is likely
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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