S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 1, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Jan 25, 2016


Continuation to the upside as expected. Pushed higher to the end of the week as projected. Upside limited to 1.5% to 2% as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a perfect job for the week.

Forecast Starting Feb 1, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jan 29, 2016:
  • Potential swing top in the making
  • Both upside and downside potential limited around 1.5% for the week until NFP Friday
  • NFP report on Friday may jump start a surge higher projected for the week after
  • Volatility expansion again

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Report Snapshot


breadth_forecast_20160129

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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