S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 29, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Feb 22, 2016
Monday gap up capped within 1.5% and led to an attempt for swing top but downside was also capped within 1.5%. Real-time breadth turned bullish since and cleared resistance above. Extreme volatility materialized. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Feb 29, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Feb 26, 2016:
Potential swing top in the making
Balanced odds in both directions 2 weeks in a row points to very violent breakout in the making
Extreme volatility warning
Exact turning point has to be identified with real-time breadth due to the high level of volatility
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
First tag of previous quarter 50% almost always result in retracement, that is normal.
How we got there - a strong move from previous quarter close in one move.
That implies a ...
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
Breakout play worked out. Clearing Y-1 gave us a straight melt down to Y-3 target. Then a technical bounce took ES higher back to Y-1. Closed the ...
Lawrence's Comment Recap Breakout play worked out. Clearing Y-1 gave us a straight melt down to Y-3 target. Then a technical bounce took ES higher back to Y-1. Closed the ...READ MOREFor more information about this report please refer to the Market Bias Informant pageREAD MORE
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 29, 2016
Review of Forecast for Feb 22, 2016
Monday gap up capped within 1.5% and led to an attempt for swing top but downside was also capped within 1.5%. Real-time breadth turned bullish since and cleared resistance above. Extreme volatility materialized. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Feb 29, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Feb 26, 2016:
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Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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