S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 28, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Mar 21, 2016


Pullback until 1.5% drop defended and bounced back into a shortened week close. Extended swings with low volume both ways switching between bullish and bearish real-time breadth as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.

Forecast Starting Mar 28, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Mar 24, 2016:
  • Custom breadth rolling over pointing to daily level weaknesses
  • Once 1.5% drop is in place it is likely it will extend to 2.5% and then 5% from the swing top will also be in play
  • Once 1.5% rally is in place it is likely to extend to 2.5% run
  • Extreme intraday volatility in both direction expected
  • Multiple intraday turning points expected with wild swings that has to be identified with real-time breadth

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Report Snapshot


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Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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