S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Aug 22, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Aug 15, 2016
No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Slingshot move materialized. Longer term breadth sell setups happened but resulted in minimal downside actions only. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 22, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 19, 2016:
Breakout setup for 2% or more swing this week in either direction with bias for both directions and another week of potential slingshot play
1% move in one direction will likely give us 2% in same direction
Short term breadth in sell mode while longer term ones being consumed / neutralized
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Aug 22, 2016
Review of Forecast for Aug 15, 2016
No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Slingshot move materialized. Longer term breadth sell setups happened but resulted in minimal downside actions only. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 22, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 19, 2016:
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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