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What Really Happens During Election Years

By Lawrence Chan  

Following is the daily composite average of Dow during election years since 1932.

MBO Recurrence_20121021_020957

The chart shows the average values from the first trading day up to the last trading day.

The green line is the composite high. The blue line is the composite close. And the red line is the composite low.

As of Oct 19, Dow is heading towards the lowest point on close basis (the blue line) historically. The lowest point is Oct 21.

 

Next chart is the daily composite average of S&P during election years since 1962.

MBO Recurrence_20121021_024118

 

Last chart is the daily composite average of NDX during election years since 1988.

MBO Recurrence_20121021_033440

 

Should be interesting to see where the indices are heading in these few months.

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