What’s Next For Apple Inc.

By Lawrence

My last piece on Apple was posted several months ago here.

Several projections materialized after it was published:

1. For a potential false breakout, Apple will be capped by approx. 5% above the May high. Apple was capped there for a month before the news driven extra rush to $700.

2. Green support trend line break on the chart will indicate the bull party is over. Apple broken that trend line at $625 and dropped $100 since.

Here is the updated chart of Apple.

Apple Daily_20121205_220258

What should we expect next?

a. If Apple can move above the 570-580 area, it will move back up to 600-610 zone. i.e. the midpoint of the range marked by the purple horizontal lines.

b. On weekly and higher timeframes, Apple has a classic blow off top in place where it dropped 20% straight down. That implies the price of Apple will not be able to retest its all time high for a long time. How long? The pattern seldom results in any retest of the all time high within 5 years.

c. A long term decline is likely on its way. Best case scenario for bulls is a stair step drop with Apple bounces back up to $600 and above, then topping below $650, and continue to decline slowly and erratically.

d. Short term support for the price was the $525 to $530 area (lowest blue line). A retest of the zone from above that failed to hold the price on weekly closing basis will indicate further decline with target below $450.

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