- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD and classic Chart Reading Techniques in actively traded markets
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As expected no strong directional move with Y-1 and Y-0 boundaries pretty much trapped the price actions all week. NFP led to the sudden swing breaking below Y-1 but it is not confirmed on daily as price snapped back up immediately. Closed the week below Y-0 and above midpoint.
Still within the previous consolidation range means we have to wait for the daily level breakout again. Strong reaction below Y-1 and 119 means an attempt at the other end B+1 and above is likely.
Retest of Y-1 happened as expected. FBO against Y-1 gave us a pop back up to Y-0. NFP Friday gapped Dow lower to Y-1 which is strong support due to FBO setup. Clean run up to crime scene from the week before. Closed the week above Y-0 and near week high.
Do not confuse volatility with directional change. The whiplash action is just a result of short term participants being swiped by the market making process. Until we see clear swing trend in place, Dow is still in daily level down trend or no trend. A retest of B-0 is in play with strong resistance right above Y+1 where the open gap is.
Y-1 retest as expected. Y-1 support gave us a run for Y-0. Y-0 tagged and Aussie went sideway since. Closed the week below Y-0 and above midpoint.
Double bottom setup on 4 hours points to a slow drift up to above B+1 / 0.71 crime scene as long as B-0 acting as support. Breakingn below B-0 points to a retest of Y-1 / B-1 but it is not necessary to go much lower because Aussie is sitting on top of longer term support zone here.
Couldn’t form a low early in the week above 4100 led to the expected stop hunt mentioned last week. Since then NQ gapped back up above 4100 and fought its way back up to challenge Y-1. NFP gave NQ the fuel needed to clear Y-1 and rushed back up to the crime scene. Closed the week below Y-0 and at week high.
Very strong reversal formation in place on intraday basis but not on daily level. This means the run will be carried higher this week but may not be able to last. Above 4320 open gap zone if distribution is seen, we will get a drop back down to B-0 easily in coming weeks.
Euro attempted to go lower yet not able to break Y-1. Cleared Y-0 right after yet not able to push higher. Consolidation actions until NFP Friday that led to wild swings both ways. Closed the week near Y-0 and midpoint.
Inside week closing near both midpoints points to breakout play. Since 1.13 was rejected decisively twice the odds favour a down side breakout with B-2 and B-3 targets.
Cable consolidated around previous week close in extreme tight range. Not even 50% previous week range was made. Closed the week near Y-1 and midpoint.
Consolidation in tight range after wide range week often points to continuation. Y-1 / B-0 support can send cable higher to B+2 / Y-0 but that will not change the bearish formation on daily. Long term support at 1.5 will be the more important decision zone.
Y-0 support as expected gave us the continuation move to take out Y+1. Since then FBO against Y+1 gave us a clean drop to Y-0 and breaking below quickly points to Y-1 target. Y-1 tagged by Friday. Closed the week below Y-1 and at week low.
Outside down week is bearish. New low against B-1 is likely with the crime scene 1.31 of great interest. If flush low below B-1 does not tag B-2 and snap back up above B-1 quickly, an attempt for B-0 and the crime scene above at 1.335 will be in play.
Flushed down to Y-2 and found support. Gapped higher to test Y-1 and stalled. Swinged around Y-1 while waiting for NFP. NFP Friday open held the open gap below and forced a run back up to Y-0 and above. Closed the week above Y-0 and near week high.
Reversal setup in place on intraday timeframes. Daily down trend broken. Until a new trend is formed it will be difficult to trade in coming weeks. Strong resistance at 1960s with support down at Y-1 / B-0. External factors will play an important role here in deciding the next swing level direction.
Euro moved back down to target mentioned last week. Bounced from there but failed to clear 1.13 / Y-0. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.
Y-1 / B-0 confirmed resistance with B-2 in play. Euro zone news is affecting euro hence not a good time to trade Euro.
Bottom of the boundary on weekly tested and rejected. Door opened to challenge Y+1 since and was tested near end of the week. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Still trapped within the same range, no directional play until we get clear signs which way this pair wants to go. Hands off until we get a strong move on daily out of this pair.
Y-0 resistance sent NQ down to Y-2 normal target. Strong reaction from Y-2 sent NQ back up to Y-1. Y-1 resistance confirmed with end of week drop back down to Y-2. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.
A flush low early in the week will allow NQ to drift back up to B-0 and above. Failing to form a low early in the week will lead to very extreme selling exploring the stops down at 4100 and then 4000.
Forced test of Y+1 and above worked out as expected. Y-0 support for Y+2 target also worked out. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
As long as Y+1 / B-0 acting as support more upside is expected.
News shock sent cable back down to Y-1 and 100% range expansion. Stops were triggered and led to further downside to Y-2 before support is found. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.
Wide range week reversal is bearish but we cannot rule out the potential of a strong bounce before further downside is developed. Y-1 / B-0 strong resistance. New low against B-1 likely.
Dow tried to fill the open gap above early in the week and failed. Y-1 turned into resistance and sent Dow down to Y-2. Y-2 acted as support and produced a squeeze back up to above Y-1. Closed the week near Y-1 and midpoint.
More bullish than NQ but not quite a confirmed reversal against the forming of potential daily down trend. Y-0 / B+1 strong resistance until proven otherwise. A retest of B-1 likely.
Y-0 failed to act as support and turned into resistance. Channel break down led to test of the start of the channel which is Y-2. Found support at Y-2 and bounced. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Y-1 / B-0 strong resistance until proven otherwise. Retest of B-1 likely.
Bearish expectation played out. Downside target Y-2 tagged. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Similar to NQ, ES is potentially forming a daily down trend. Bulls will do all they can do stop that from happening. A flush low early in the week can lead to a strong bounce breaking above Y-1 / B-0 to terminate the potential but it will just be no trend for the coming months. Test of B-1 likely.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2015 Oct 5 – 2015 Oct 9
2015 Sep 28 – 2015 Oct 2
2015 Sep 21 – 2015 Sep 25
2015 Sep 14 – 2015 Sep 18
2015 Sep 7 – 2015 Sep 11
2015 Aug 31 – 2015 Sep 4
2015 Aug 24 – 2015 Aug 28
2015 Aug 17 – 2015 Aug 21
2015 Aug 10 – 2015 Aug 14
2015 Aug 3 – 2015 Aug 7
2015 Jul 27 – 2015 Jul 31
2015 Jul 20 – 2015 Jul 24
2015 Jul 13 – 2015 Jul 17
2015 Jul 6 – 2015 Jul 10
2015 Jun 29 – 2015 Jul 3
2015 Jun 22 – 2015 Jun 26
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.