- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Consolidation actions as expected. Rally towards end of week was mainly a stop hunt. Sold off by end of the week due to news shock regarding conflict in Ukraine. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
No strong bias for either direction. Closing near open of the week points to indecision. B-1 is now very important support. Once it is breached a flush back down to B-3 is likely.
As expected, ninja dropped back down to Y-0. After it breached Y-0, ninja weaken further. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Inside week after outside week with Y-0 and B-0 near each other. Indecision continues. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, it may lead to the spike up because of classic flight to safety reaction. But until the conflict in Ukraine is resolved, currencies will not be able to produce meaningful moves.
No drastic move last week. 2nd week of pullback from the multiple week rally. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Still moving within the context of consolidation / pullback mode. Until gold can make a move out of its current range, there is nothing much to lean on.
A down channel is now in place, as long as Aussie failed to clear B-0, there is probably one more down move to go.
As expected pullback to Y-0 and stuck in a tight range since. Consolidation around Monday range all week. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.
1-2-3 sell on 4 hours points to B-2 and lower. Not necessary a very bearish move just that real buyers have to step in from the support area below B-1 to enable another leg up.
The easy play of the week. Cable dropped below Y-1 and snap back up immediately gave us the long setup. Steady up drift. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Not the strongest rally one would like to see. Now that war is throw into the mix. It will be difficult to get a follow through from here.
Looking for sideway actions until the war in Ukraine is over.
Gap above Y+1 killed the pullback potential down to Y-2. That did not changed the consolidation actions that is expected for the week. Wild swings by the end of the week thanks to Mrs. Yellen testimony and crisis in Ukraine. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.
A quick drop below B-0 / Y+1 and that turning into resistance will give us a run to at least below B-1.
First move for the week however is more unpredictable at this point because of the escalation of conflict in Ukraine. For normal situation a retest of B+1 is likely.
Open the week with clean break above Y+1 opened the door to Y+2 and Y+3 since. Multiple attempts to go lower has failed leading to end of week rally to almost Y+3. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.
End of week flush lower was direct reaction to the conflict in Ukraine. Althought S&P has recovered it does not change the fact that people may not react well to the current development there.
Looking for range bounded actions below B+1 and B-1.
Consolidation around previous week close. Pretty standard reaction to a huge run. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.
A huge void zone was created below where there was not enough time and volume spent down there. A larger version of consolidation in the making.
NQ could be bounded within a 100-150 point range for the coming few weeks.
Until the excessive buying is absorbed, it is difficult to find directional long term play worths trying. Focus on short term swing and day trading opportunities will be a better plan.
Weekly buying showed up at Y-1. Y+1 tagged but the buying was not strong enough to keep ninja above that. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outside week. Y-0 and midpoint near each other. Failed to close above Y+1 indicates there is not enough fuel to go either way. Retest of B-0 likely.
One more move breaking B-0 will easily lead to a test of B-1.
Y+1 rejected which gave us Y-0 and below. Gold not going up quickly contributed to the move. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
A pullback from multiple weeks up leg is normal. The slow drift downward is sign of strength. A break of previous week resistance line will give us a go for Y+1 / B+1.
The wildcard is that if gold collapses from the current level, we can lean on a break of Y-1 down to B-3.
Down channel turned into a wedge. Then breakout happened conveniently at the right time sending this back up to my target above. 200% absolute range expansion stopped the run. Closed above Y+1 and midpoint.
Strong reaction because all committed shorts had stops piled up between Y-0 and Y+1. That’s why the move is so clean. The stop run only move will need real buying to give us a retest of B+1. B-0 likely this week as players have to reshuffle their positions to get in line with their new expections.
Spike high followed by strong reaction back down below Y+1. Consolidation play with 50% range as expected. Closed the week above Y-0 and near week low.
Y-0 is still in play and can happen early next week.
Reaction from below Y-0, specifically quick snap back up above B-1 will setup cable to run higher to retest Y+1 / B+1.
Previous week close acted as support all week making the consolidation higher than usual. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
An up channel has developed. A break above B+1 will give us channel top which is quite far above near B+3.
As long as that has not happened yet, there is a good chance for Y-0 to be tagged again.
Consolidation around B+1 at 50% range as expected. A necessary pause for the wild moves over the past few weeks. Closed the week below Y+1 and near midpoint.
Difficult week ahead for stock markets worldwide again. On one hand G20 agreed to print $2 trillion dollar worldwide over the weekend. On the other hand the situation at Ukraine can lead to another round of sovereign debt crisis.
One week of consolidation may not be enough to absorb the excessive run up. I suspect we have to deal with another week of consolidation again. Controlled drop points to B-2 in play.
Consolidation around previous week close at 50% range. A rare normal breather since the beginning of this year. Closed the week below Y+1 and near midpoint.
A marginal double top in place with neckline at B-1 and target at B-3. B-3 is in the zone where the backfill actions should drop to.
Not bullish until a breakout above B+1 that will confirm the strength of this bull run with 1900 potential.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2014 Mar 3 – 2014 Mar 7
2014 Feb 24 – 2014 Feb 28
2014 Feb 17 – 2014 Feb 21
2014 Feb 10 – 2014 Feb 14
2014 Feb 3 – 2014 Feb 7
2014 Jan 27 – 2014 Jan 31
2014 Jan 20 – 2014 Jan 24
2014 Jan 13 – 2014 Jan 17
2013 Jan 7 – 2013 Jan 11
2013 Dec 30 – 2014 Jan 3
2013 Dec 23 – 2013 Dec 27
2013 Dec 16 – 2013 Dec 20
2013 Dec 9 – 2013 Dec 13
2013 Dec 2 – 2013 Dec 6
2013 Nov 25 – 2013 Nov 29
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.