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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Violent reactions to hold onto the uptrend after breach of Y-1 has failed as the resistance zone above was rejected decisively. That opened the door to Y-1 again and later printed the Y-2 target. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Decisively rejection of Y+1 and above is now confirmed. Daily up trend not broken yet making this a transitional week that can go both ways.

For now, as long as Y-0 / B-0 zone is acting as resistance, more downside is likely with Y-3 and B-2 targets.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Got Y+2 as expected. Immediate pullback since. Consolidated around Y+1. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Down trend on daily broken. Now US dollar has to prove its strength by holding up B-2 / Y-0 zone as support to form a better longer term swing bottom.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Retest of Y-1 and support below as expected. Struggled a bit down there but managed to print week high later in the week. Closed the week near Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Bottom formation is not confirmed yet as the week failed to close strongly above Y-0. Until B+1 turning into support we do not have a confirmed low and more likely to break B-1 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ was the strong one and its bullish bias to tag Y+1 was fulfilled in the beginning of the week. From there we got an unusual consolidation around the previous week close with very wild actions both ways. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Ignoring the intraday swings, it is a surprising orderly stair step up week. What it means is that the upside to 3970-80 is possible as long as Y+1 is acting as support.

If NQ fails to hold above B-0, a drop back down to B-1 and then B-2 is in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Instead of testing Y-1 first, ninja opted for test of Y-0 zone resistance first. That forced a drop in ninja back down to Y-1 later in the week. Closed the week above Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week with weak close points to proper retest of Y-1 / B-1 is necessary. Reaction there will tell us what’s next.

In rare scenarios, should ninja surges higher above B+1 without a retest of Y-1 / B-1 support, as long as B+1 acts as support, a run to B+3 is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Another not so surprising attack against the bears last week. As mentioned last week, the gaps above were inviting Dow to revisit them quickly. The surprise was that it was done with a huge gap up above them all to start the week. As Y+1 acted as support, Dow moved to Y+2 to complete the upside objective. A steep drop from Y+2 back down to fill the open gaps below since. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation around the open of the week above Y+1 is bullish. It shows that Y+2 / B+1 is likely to be retested early next week. Reaction there will tell us if last week was a blow-off top.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of the week. Broke Y-1 and then flush to Y-3 target as expected. Closed the week above Y-3 and below midpoint.

Outlook
1.35 has been long term support for a long time. If it is breached, a drop to 1.33 quickly is expected. The fight will be messy here (i.e. wild swings expected) as many short term traders already turned bullish after the minute drop so far.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Gapped higher near Y+1 to start the week. After failing to clear Y+1 gave us a drop back down to Y-0 and filled the open gap in 1 go. Then another squeeze higher back up to challenge Y+1. Yet failed again resulting in an even stronger selloff back down to the support mentioned last week. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Lots of fuel used up in defending the 1950 level. It is not a bullish sign. If ES fails to clear B+1 decisively, we get another wild ride back down to B-1.

Whiplash actions potential this week.

2 comments





Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Breached Y-1 in the beginning of the week but did not stay below. Bounced to Y-0 and stopped there as usual. Sold back down to Y-1. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Confirmed weaknesses in place but no confirmation of down trend on daily. Frustrating? Yes. But one has to understand that it is normal for summer with market movement like this.

More downside is expected. Breaking of B-1 forcefully will give us B-2 and B-3 eventually.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Affected by the other 2 indices, NQ was pulled down quickly towards Y-0 which induced a flush down to its open gap below from the prior week. Drifted higher since but another market shock forced a gap down to Y-1 which was bought magically. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Strongest among the 3 indices, inside week with strong close points to retest of Y+1 / B+1 likely.

The retest will likely be met with strong selling due to the number of trapped longs from the past 2 weeks above Y-0.

A weekly level pullback is in the making if NQ fails tag B+1 first before coming back down to B-0. This will open the door to B-1 and below over the coming few weeks.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Aussie carried higher as gold holding onto its gain last week. Spiked through Y-0 but failed to clear the resistance. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation after wide range week is normal. If not for the stop run mid week we would have a perfect 50% consolidation week.

Y-0 rejected points to retest of Y-1 in play. Even if long side can stage a comeback it will take a better bottom to happen.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 did not even hold up for half a day. Door opened to Y-1 and below. Retest of Y-0 from below failed and gave us Y-1 in 1 go. Closed the week above Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Potential reversal last week failed badly. Some support was found below Y-1. We need B-1 to act as support to confirm strength before looking for a bounce to B-0 and above.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
The bad news for bulls materialized last week. Dow tried hard to hold every intraday support zone yet breached them all when the news of another bank trouble had surfaced. Interestingly, Dow closed the open gap from the bad news and took off fiercely. Closed the week near Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week with close near both midpoints is indecision. Volatility picked up also implies more wild swings are in the card.

3 open gaps are now created above the current price level. It is difficult not to get one or two of them challenged next week. If these gaps show strength as resistance, B-1 and B-2 will be the target for the next leg down.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
First test of Y+1 stopped the run and gave us a slow drift back down to previous week close. Then an excuse was given and gave us the Y+1 breakout I was looking for. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Potential reversal in place. As long as B-0 / Y+1 zone acting as support B+2 and above is in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation as expected. 50% range. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week with a mildly weak close points to retest of B-1 likely. That can open the door to further pullback down to B-2. This is just normal pullback actions to find acceptance at the current price level.

Only if B-1 is breached forcefully with flush action down to B-3 that we can consider the past 2 weeks a weekly level FBO. If that is the case, cable has run its bullish course on weekly.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Suffered same problem like Dow. No holding strength at intraday support levels at all. Did not find real support until 100% range expansion. Closed the week below Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Similar to Dow but weaker in formation as Y-1 was cleared. Strong resistance zone created at Y-0 / B-0 zone. As long as ES fails to clear B+1, bias towards a retest of Y-1 is in the card.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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