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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bearish tone in beginning of the week forced a break down below Y-1. Then the spike reversal mentioned last week happened, gave us a go for Y-0 and above. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Down trend on daily is intact. Without 30-min or higher timeframe swing level support, NQ can easily flush back down to at least B-0 and Y-1 is also likely.

NQ needs to hold B-0 down to Y-1 zone to create the necessary condition to break this down trend.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Reduced range drifting. Closed above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
As mentioned last week, a potential long term bottom in the making. The up drift last week is giving this pair more room and a strong support down at Y-0 / B-1.

A slow drift back down to B-1 will be very strong setup to swing higher in coming weeks.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Was looking for resistance at Y+1 going back down to Y-0. We got that and euro was stuck since. Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Breaking below B-1 decisively implies a drop to B-3 likely.

Euro must hold B-1 and clear B-0 quickly to maintain its bullish uptrend.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation at 50% previous week range as expected. Drifted back up to resistance Y-0. Closed the week at Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
A complete week of bear flag is not bullish. A strong setup for B+1 test failure which points to a drop to B-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Mon/Tue produced a swing high allowing us to join the continuation sell later in the week. Closed the week below Y-0 and near week low.

Outlook
The selling is not completed. A drop to B-2 is still likely. Clearing B-0 implies a retest of Y+1 in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Held Y-0 support, gave us a run to Y+1 as expected. Can’t ask for more. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Still indecisive whether to push higher or collapse back down. Failing to clear B+1 will give us a drop to B-1 and likely lower. As long as B-0 acting as support there should be one more push towards B+1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 acted as resistance and gave us a drop back down to previous week close which turned into very strong support on 3 separate attempts to break it from above. 2nd push at Y-0 cleared the resistance and gave us a run to Y+1. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Odd thin up channel developed last week cannot last.

2 completely opposite outcomes are expected. A breakout of B+1 will lead to a run to at least B+2. This is the case where Dow follows the parabolic run pattern.

A break of 16300 will lead to an all out drop back down to 16100 and below due to break down from thin up channel.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bearish weaknesses persisted in the beginning of the week yet Y-1 was never challenged even though ES sold off from Y-0 quickly. 2nd challenge at Y-0 from below cleared the resistance and gave us a breakout of 100% the double bottom range. Closed the week above Y-0 and near week high.

Outlook
Inside week. Wide range week. Very unusual combination. As long as B+1 not cleared OR failed to hold as support after a breakout to the upside, a drop back down to B-0 is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Last week’s warning materialized. Dow collapsed as there is no buyers left at the current level. The buyers showed up below Y-2 could not offset the weekly STOPD resistance. 200% range expansion to the downside. Closed the week near Y-4 and week low.

Outlook
Critical weekly support below. Monday / Tusday spike reversal above B-1 will produce another temporary bottom with above Y-3 target.

Any attempt to rally, as long as B-0 is not cleared, are considered counter-trend and not likely to last.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bullish scenario unfolded. Held Y-0, gave us Y+2 and no pullback since as gold strengthen at the same time. Aussie could not stop going higher until 200% range expansion. Stalled immediately back to midpoint. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.

Outlook
The tension build up in Ukraine is a surprise to many hence the rush to gold and the metal currencies. Luckily they still followed the breakout rules closely.

Monday/Tuesday is critical whether Aussie will establish a swing top or bottom for the week. Swing bottom will allow Aussie to clear B+1 and run for B+2. Swing top means a drop back down to Y+1 likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Support at Y-1 worked out, gave us Y+1 and more. 200% range expansion like Aussie. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Although the rally was a product of stop run, the 2nd pop last week gave the bulls a strong support zone at Y+1 / B-0. As long as that holds, cable will challenge Y+3 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
First half of the week showing signs of reduced range and consolidation behaviour. Then the spike up to challenge Y-0 failed, led to all out melt down. NQ could not find support until Y-2 was reached due to the dip buyers being trapped. Closed the week below Y-2 and near week low.

Outlook
NQ has no real support below the current price level until another 100 points below. If bulls want to see current year high later this year, they need to support the current level and force a bottom here.

A flush low in the beginning of the week followed by spike reversal back above Y-2 points to a run back up to B-0.

It is possible to get a melt down to B-2 quickly Monday should massive stop run is induced.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Ninja moved lower as expected. What I did not expect, however, was the all out melt down. Got Y-3 before ninja can even bounce. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Partially event driven, but this pullback is mostly expected due to the daily level overbought condition.

Ninja needs to absorb the drop hence consolidation likely with reduced range.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected, more downside. Y-0 resistance sent this down to almost Y-3. Resistance trend line break gave us a bear flag / up channel back up above Y-1. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Potential long term bottom in the making. First, we need to see B-1 acting as support from retest though.

Short term resistance B+1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 cleared from below, gave us reason to go long and Y+1 was cleared with minimal effort. Y+2 normal target reached. Closed the week below Y+2 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Strange rally as usual caused by actions from ECB and EU. The 3 pushes down pattern on daily already gave us a hint that this can happen.

Euro back to long term resistance 1.390 to 1.400. Will be difficult to tell if it is going to hold euro down this time.

Short term resistance at B+1 will give us a pullback to Y+1 / B-0 area.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
First thing first, ES slided down to my target Y-2. Support was found and ES started to drift higher. At 100% range expansion, ES could no longer sustain itself and collapsed back down and printed Y-3 downside target. Closed the week below Y-3 and near week low.

Outlook
ES got its measured move target last week. This does not imply it can start to bounce now. The bearish closing points to more downside is expected. Only until ES can form a bottom on daily and clear B-0 decisively that the daily downtrend is challenged.

Bearish bias with expectation of increase in volatility later in the week.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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