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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD and classic Chart Reading Techniques in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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End-of-day trader / swing trader looking for useful analysis beyond daytrading? Take a look at our proprietary Weekly Cycle Projection.






Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
FBO last week gave us the drop down to near Y-2 until 100% absolute range expansion was tagged. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-2 / B-1 support will force a retest of the 0.77 breakdown crime scene. Until we have a clean break of Y-2, Aussie is simply moving back into the previous consolidation area for more sideway actions.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Weekly FBO confirmed with a drop back down to Y-2 normal target. Volatility however makes the move more difficult to deal with for many. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-1/ B-0 strong resistance. Down trend on 30-min established. More down side is expected.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Upside breakout of Y+1 confirmed the bullish scenario with Y+2 tagged. Consolidation since. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Rising wedge potential means a break of the support line will easily send cable back down to B-1. Cable is entering the highest risk time window now as Brexit vote is too close to ignore. Beware of news shock everyday.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y+1 resistance with BoJ announcement killed the upside immediately. News shock target of Y-1 cleared with Y-2 almost tagged. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.

Outlook
Reactionary bounce points to a test of at least Y-1 and potentially B-0. We cannot be sure if Ninja can hold B-1 though as momentum points to the historical lower support at 104 is now in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
FBO on weekly confirmed. Continuation sell off waited until the very last moment to tag Y-2 target. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-1 / B-0 strong resistance until proven otherwise. More downside is expected but do not assume the drop will be clean as daily level supports are now lining up in layers below B-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
FBO against Y-1 / weekly consolidation support sent Euro straight back up to Y+1 and above. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Y+1 / B-0 now support. Clearing 1.15 points to much higher prices as explained in last issue of MBO.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 retested as expected. Failing to hold the zone gave us 100% expansion of the consolidation range. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Falling wedge in the making. Until we see B-0 / Y-1 acting as support, down trend still in force.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ failing to clear the open gap above earlier in the week confirmed NQ being the weakest among the indices. Downside target of Y-2 and Y-3 tagged in stair step drop fashion. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
More downside likely with complex pullback in between. Y-2 / B-0 test is normal but not necessary.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Previous week close defended gave us a run for Y+2. Y+2 tagged and strong reaction there dropped Dow back down to Y+1. Closed the week near Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Potential FBO against Y+1 in place with targets Y-0 and Y-1 in play. As long as Y+1 /B+1 zone continues to serve as resistance, all attempts to go higher will fail.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Gap down to Y-1 giving us the perfect setup to produce the strong daily bottom mentioned last week. Clean reversal with breakout of Y+1 gave us Y+3 easily. Closed the week near Y+3 and week high.

Outlook
More upside expected. Consolidation / pullback to Y+2 is reasonable.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 support gave us the run to Y+2 as expected. 3 pushes up against Y+2 produced the drop back down to Y+1. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Potential FBO against Y+1 in place. As long as Y+1 /B-0 acting as resistance Aussie may have to drop back down to Y-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 holds gave us a push for Y+1 and above. Consolidation around Y+1 after 100% absolute range expansion. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
4 hour bear flag / up channel in the making. Channel resistance above points to potential pullback to B-0 / Y-0 zone. Clearing the channel resistance points to daily up trend for a run to B+2 and B+3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bear flag breakdown gave us Y-1 and below as expected. Y-2 tagged and consolidation between Y-1 and Y-2 since. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
B-1 retest likely. Double bottom against B-1 points to at least a test of Y-0. Closing above B-0 will signal short term bottom in place.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ Y+1 resistance gave us the drop to Y-0 as expected and that in turn unlocked the open gap and led to free fall back down to Y-1. NQ found support at 100% absolute range expansion and bouned. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-0 / B-0 very strong resistance until proven otherwise. A break of Y-1 / B-1 will give us B-2 easily.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Resistance zone worked out and forced a drop to Y-1 as expected. Closed the week below Y-1 and at week low.

Outlook
More downside expected. daily down trend established.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES followed Dow to tag Y+2 before a more serious pullback materialized. Premium members were informed about the reversal well ahead of time. Closed the week near Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
FBO against Y+1 potential but not confirmed yet. Usually the winning side can be determined from Monday closing. As long as Y+1 / B+1 zone acting as resistance, a drop to Y-0 and below is likely.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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