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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Gap down to start the week with a test of Y-1. Y-1 rejected decisively led to a run towards the resistance zone mentioned last week. Spent most of the week holding above Y-0 until the sudden collapse. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Potential weekly and monthly FBO in the making. More downside is expected as long as B-0 is not breached.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Very nice rally off the support zone mentioned last week. Rally until 100% absolute range expansion completed. Y+2 rejected leading to a drop back down to Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Completely different from Dow, NQ has been holding onto its bullish up trend on weekly. This gives bulls an advantage in containing the potential selloff / correction during the seasonally volatile period.

A decisive break of B-1 will lead to a strong pullback on weekly back down to B-3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of the week. Previous week close right below Y-0 acted as resistance sending cable down to Y-2 target. No surprises, no fake out. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Long term support zone 1.69-1.70 can trigger some wild swings.

As long as Y-1 / B-0 acting as resistance, more downside is expected.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bottoming formation gave us a run from Y-0 to Y+2, yet Y+1 failed to act as support. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y+1 failing to hold means the bottom from last week was not strong enough. A retest of B-1 is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Higher low was made with a drift up until 100% absolute range reached. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Instead of forming a good bottom, ninja was forced back up by external factors including intervention by BOJ. This makes the Y-1 bottom dirty and a retest of that is likely if ninja cannot clear B+1 decisively this week.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 support consolidation created a breakout play. Breaking above led to a surge to measured move target above Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
2nd push higher with strong resistance above at B+1 / Y+2. Clearing Y+2 quickly will lead to a quick run to B+3.

Consolidation below resistance more likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected, even after breaking Y-1 euro refused to go lower quickly. slow choppy action down to near Y-2. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.

Outlook
1.33 target still in play. Bottom picking actions so far can lead to a decisive flush towards 1.33 this week. In turn, a temporary bottom will be put in place.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Gap down with Dow but testing the Y-0 zone only. Rallied since upto 100% absolute range expansion. As mentioned last week, we need a decisive break above Y+1 for continuation to the upside. We did not get one so pullback to B-0 at the end of the week. Closed the week above Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
4th week with about the same weekly range. It is a signature of well structured environment. But such environment do not last. Expect a more volatile period starting now.

As long as Y+1 acting as resistance, B-2 is in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Violent reactions to hold onto the uptrend after breach of Y-1 has failed as the resistance zone above was rejected decisively. That opened the door to Y-1 again and later printed the Y-2 target. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Decisively rejection of Y+1 and above is now confirmed. Daily up trend not broken yet making this a transitional week that can go both ways.

For now, as long as Y-0 / B-0 zone is acting as resistance, more downside is likely with Y-3 and B-2 targets.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Got Y+2 as expected. Immediate pullback since. Consolidated around Y+1. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Down trend on daily broken. Now US dollar has to prove its strength by holding up B-2 / Y-0 zone as support to form a better longer term swing bottom.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Retest of Y-1 and support below as expected. Struggled a bit down there but managed to print week high later in the week. Closed the week near Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Bottom formation is not confirmed yet as the week failed to close strongly above Y-0. Until B+1 turning into support we do not have a confirmed low and more likely to break B-1 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ was the strong one and its bullish bias to tag Y+1 was fulfilled in the beginning of the week. From there we got an unusual consolidation around the previous week close with very wild actions both ways. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Ignoring the intraday swings, it is a surprising orderly stair step up week. What it means is that the upside to 3970-80 is possible as long as Y+1 is acting as support.

If NQ fails to hold above B-0, a drop back down to B-1 and then B-2 is in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Instead of testing Y-1 first, ninja opted for test of Y-0 zone resistance first. That forced a drop in ninja back down to Y-1 later in the week. Closed the week above Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week with weak close points to proper retest of Y-1 / B-1 is necessary. Reaction there will tell us what’s next.

In rare scenarios, should ninja surges higher above B+1 without a retest of Y-1 / B-1 support, as long as B+1 acts as support, a run to B+3 is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Another not so surprising attack against the bears last week. As mentioned last week, the gaps above were inviting Dow to revisit them quickly. The surprise was that it was done with a huge gap up above them all to start the week. As Y+1 acted as support, Dow moved to Y+2 to complete the upside objective. A steep drop from Y+2 back down to fill the open gaps below since. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation around the open of the week above Y+1 is bullish. It shows that Y+2 / B+1 is likely to be retested early next week. Reaction there will tell us if last week was a blow-off top.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of the week. Broke Y-1 and then flush to Y-3 target as expected. Closed the week above Y-3 and below midpoint.

Outlook
1.35 has been long term support for a long time. If it is breached, a drop to 1.33 quickly is expected. The fight will be messy here (i.e. wild swings expected) as many short term traders already turned bullish after the minute drop so far.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Gapped higher near Y+1 to start the week. After failing to clear Y+1 gave us a drop back down to Y-0 and filled the open gap in 1 go. Then another squeeze higher back up to challenge Y+1. Yet failed again resulting in an even stronger selloff back down to the support mentioned last week. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Lots of fuel used up in defending the 1950 level. It is not a bullish sign. If ES fails to clear B+1 decisively, we get another wild ride back down to B-1.

Whiplash actions potential this week.

2 comments




Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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