- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
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Pullback / consolidation all week. Not dropping quite down to support as 50% previous week range capped the move. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.
As long as Y+1 / B-0 zone acting as resistance, the pullback has at least a bit more to go down to Y-0 / B-2.
Strong upside breakout above B-0 points to continuation rally upto B+2.
Rallied continued to tag Y+2. Turned into spike high and breached Y+1 giving us more downside. Dropped down to below Y-0 and found support. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
The pullback I was looking for happened right on schedule. Relatively the week range is already greater than the one before so it is a significant pullback. On weekly basis, there is no damage to the up trend itself.
As long as Y-0 / B-0 can act as support zone, retest of B+1 and higher is likely. The swings can get very wild from this point because intervention by Japanese government can happen anytime but their effort to slow down the weakening of yen will likely fail.
No strength to push above Y+1, lower prints happened. Pretty much as expected. The more interesting part is that gold has broken its daily down trend by the end of last week giving Aussie some holding strength. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
As long as Aussie can hold Y-1 , a rally back up to Y+1 and then B+2 is due.
If Aussie fails to hold above B-1, another strong slide down to B-3 will be triggered.
Went higher and tagged 1.07 round number and stalled. Consolidation since. Closed the week near Y+1 and below midpoint.
Similar to Aussie, affected by gold’s multiple attempts to find a bottom, Loonie not stable at the current level.
B-1 must hold for the pair to go higher.
Once B-1 is breached, B-2 and below will be in play. That is likely to be triggered by a rally in gold.
I am correct that NQ has a consolidation week – choppy move back down to Y-0 pretty much sums up the story. NFP report caused an upside breakout of the consolidation range. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
As mentioned last week, on swing basis NQ has not shown weaknesses yet. And here we are, another new year high printed.
The void zone created between Y-1 upto B-1 will be revisited when longer term pullback / correction is due.
For now, as long as NQ can hold above B-0, more upside in store.
If B-0 is breached decisively, B-2 in play.
Mentioned last week euro support is Y-0 and there we got the heated fights 3 times within the week. At the end the bears are toasted with Y+2 upside target tagged by end of the week. Closed the week near Y+2 and week high.
This is the potential swing top zone for euro. Last few times we got weekly spike highs like this coincided with major European government bonds offering. No difference this time. Once the dust settle and that euro close below Y+1 / B-0 on weekly close basis, we have a weekly spike top.
Y-0 acted as resistance at the start of the week, gave us the decisive break of Y-1 and dropped down to target Y-3. This is the easiest play for the week. From there Dow found support at Y-4 and consolidated around it until the end of the week where the NFP report changed everything. Dow gapped back up to week mid and run higher since. Closed the week below Y-1 and above midpoint.
Very unusual NFP week points to unusual follow up.
As long as Y-1/B+1 acting as resistence looking for a move back down to B-0 / Y-3.
Sold off as expected with Dow. Got my target of Y-3. Almost down to 2% pullback / Y-4 too. Consolidated around Y-3 until NFP changed the game. Gap and go destroyed the shorts not happy with just 2% drop. Closed the week near Y-0 and above midpoint.
Multiple large gaps that are not clearing important support/resistance zone are likely to be retested and filled. This points to a week of back fill the complete range of B+1 down to Y-3.
Such move is not normal but so is the current trading environment.
Backfill actions are not directional and can be very choppy.
What resistance? NQ simply popped higher right from the start of the week and stayed above previous week close. Once Dow and S&P are ready, all 3 indices jumped higher. NQ was the star of them all. It pushed straight up to Y+3. Closed the week near Y+3 and week high.
NQ upside breakout was the result of just a handful of stocks only. Last time we see such narrow breadth rally back in year 2000 it did not end well. Notice that without longer term chart supporting the bears, there is no reason to fade this market yet.
Expecting a consolidation week with reduced range.
Popped higher right from the start of the week. Pullback found support at Y+1 / previous week close pointing to Y+2 target in play. Got Y+2 and consolidated around it since. Closed the week near Y+2 and week high.
Ninja unstable after tagging 102. On weekly basis ninja has completed its primary upside objective for now. Unless some fundamental event happens, ninja will have a difficult time going higher from here.
A pullback is due but not necessary until ninja is stretched a bit further. A spike high reversal against B+1 points to a more significant pullback to B-1 is likely.
As expected, Aussie dropped below B-1. Since then it has consolidated around 50% previous week range. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Until Aussie can stage a strong reversal rally back above B+1, it is likely to continue its down trend.
Mentioned in MBO newsletter the condition for gold to go higher. Once gold has its down trend broken, Aussie can rally back up higher.
As mentioned last week, strong support at Y-0 with more upside expected. Unfolded without surprise. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Aussie and Lonnie are both under the influence of gold heavily these 2 months, so pay attention to what happen in gold will give you clues what will happen next with these 2 pairs.
Above B+1, the long time favourite 1.08 will be in play again. Will not counter this up trend until 4 hours giving me a sell setup.
My favourite pair giving us the easiest play for the week again. Pullback back to Y-0 and found support. Took off higher all the way to Y+3. Closed the week near week high and above Y+2.
Weekly upside target tagged. Challenging monthly resistance here. First test probably will result in at least a pullback down to Y+1. Difficult to tell now if it is all cable has in store to the upside.
I need to see how cable react to a move above B+1 to determine if sellers are waiting up there.
Mentioned hands off this pair last week. It was a good decision. Euro managed to hold Y-0 and pushed higher since. Not only did it managed to clear Y+1, it also bounced off Y+1 as support to push higher again until end of week sellers stopped the move. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Euro has met its sellers at B+1. As long as euro cannot push above B+2 this week, a swing top will likely form. Once euro trading below B-0 and stays below, it will be forced to go back down to at least B-2.
Consolidation above Y+1 for several days opened the door to Y+2. Then Dow found an excuse and zoomed up there in 1 go. Tagging Y+2 led to a strong selloff back down. Closed the week above Y+1 and below midpoint.
Spike reversal late in the week was not confirmed with a close below Y+1 thus it is not bearish enough to signal the start of a significant pullback.
If B-0 acts as resistance and that B-1 is breached decisively, we should see a move back down to B-3.
Without a dramatic move like that, holiday mode continues and the light volume up drift bias will dominate the tape.
A weak version of what happened to Dow. 50% previous week range. Closed the week at Y+1 / previous week close and below midpoint.
If we are getting a spike reversal here for real, we need ES to close on daily basis below B-1 quickly. That will open the door to a flush back down to below B-3.
Without a strong down move to trigger more selling, I do not expect significant swings to happen this coming week as volume dry up during the holiday season.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2013 Dec 9 – 2013 Dec 13
2013 Dec 2 – 2013 Dec 6
2013 Nov 25 – 2013 Nov 29
2013 Nov 18 – 2013 Nov 22
2013 Nov 11 – 2013 Nov 15
2013 Nov 4 – 2013 Nov 8
2013 Oct 28 – 2013 Nov 1
2013 Oct 21 – 2013 Oct 25
2013 Oct 14 – 2013 Oct 18
2013 Oct 7 – 2013 Oct 11
2013 Sep 30 – 2013 Oct 4
2013 Sep 23 – 2013 Sep 27
2013 Sep 16 – 2013 Sep 20
2013 Sep 9 – 2013 Sep 13
2013 Sep 2 – 2013 Sep 6
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.