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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation as expected. Developed the top 1/2 first then dropped down to near Y-1 for a test. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-1 / B-1 support until proven otherwise. Cannot rule out a sudden surge to Y-0 as it can be staging a very slow bear flag on weekly.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y+1 resistance sent Euro lower but it found support at Y-0. After 2nf try failed to clear Y-0, Euro was forced to test Y+1 after. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Euro effective moved back up to the crime scene where the break down started. At this point it is not clear what ECB, EU, IMF and Greece are going to do next so things can change suddenly.

On chart pattern basis euro going into weekly bear flag mode.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As explained last week, weekly up trend intact and that is good enough reason to send Dow back up to fill the open gap above. Gap fill led to selling back down to near the open gap below. Dow found support and shoot back up to produce a new high for the week before stalling. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week up close is bullish for a test of Y+1. Y+1 resistance will easily send Dow back down to Y-0 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Was expecting consolidation actions and cable did in the first half of the week. Then everything changed as the test of Y+1 did not produce a quick drop and instead turning 4 hours into a bull flag and led to a breakout to the upside. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
The outside reversal from the week before last continue to trap more shorts along the way. This probably gives cable enough fuel for Y+2 / B+2 zone. The big question is whether that’s all cable gets on its weekly level pullback against the dominating down trend.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 tested and held up. Ninja was then sent back up to Y-0 and round number at 120. 120 sellers show up and pressed ninja back down. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Overall still a consolidation week, just a bit more than 50% week range due to the 120 magnet. No declared winner on either side as bears could not break Y-1 while bulls cannot keep ninja above midpoint.

Retest of Y-1 / B-1 likely. That holds we get a serious rally back to at least Y-0 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ gap and go right from the start of the week to clear the strong resistance of Y-0 and filled the open gap above. This led to retest of Y+1 and eventual breakout to Y+2 and above. Closed the week above Y+2 and near week high.

Outlook
Blow off run in the making, can mean slow drift up further until Y+3 normal surprise breakout target. B+1 turning into resistance will give us a pullback to at least filling the open gap below.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Best behaving pair last week. Consolidation around previous week close at 50% week range. Closed the week near Y+1 and week high.

Outlook
Breakout above Y+1 / B+1 points to quick test of B+2. FBO against B+1 below B+2 will drop Aussie back down to B-1 and likely lower.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES opened the week by gapping up above Y-0 and filled the open gap above quickly. Retest of Y-0 confirm support and sent ES to test and clear Y+1 in 1 go. ES found resistance at longer term trend lines. Closed the week above Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
ES is developing a rising wedge visible on 30-min and hourly. This means ES can drift up to as high as Y+2 / B+2 area but it is not sustainable. When the steep support trend line from past 2 weeks is broken, ES will easily fall back down to B-0.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 breached early in the week but did not act as resistance. W. spring formed with Y-1 acting as support sending euro back up to Y-0. Closed the week near Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation up drift back to Y-0 resistance zone is not a surprise. Back to weekly down trend resistance means a decision has to be made early next week if Y-0 / B+1 will force a turn back down. If so, we get Y-1 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Everything changed over the weekend in Europe. Cable found support at Y-1 and forced a test of Y-0. That in turn provided fuel for cable to clear Y-0 gunning for Y+1. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week reversal against the just established down trend indicates many people are caught on the wrong side of the market. Now Y-0 / B-0 strong support with this week consolidation at 50% week range likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Ninja rejected Y+1 decisively giving us Y-0 quickly. Since then previous week close also turned into resistance giving us a go for Y-1. Y-1 tagged later in the week. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week down close has not broken the base built around 118 yet. This means this bottom boundary will be challenged soon. Obvious pocket at Y-0 / B-0 will be tested if ninja can hold Y-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As explained last week that option expiration weeks operate with a different set of rules. Dow could not clear the upper boundary as expected and suddenly dropped back down to Y-0 and below to end the week as expected. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Dow has not broken the weekly up trend, yet. That means if Dow can hold B-1, it will get a chance to move back up to B-0 to challenge the open gap above.
Until daily level down trend is established, it is difficult to tell how much more downside can happen.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Loonie finally breakout of the 3 week boundary. Y+1 was not even touched when the pullback started. Y-0 was cleared quickly opening the way to Y-1. Strong 4 hour 1-2-3 sell cleared Y-1 with breakout target Y-3 activated. Y-3 was tagged later in the week. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
As mentioned last week, the tight range on weekly will breakout one way or the other. Now that we have the break out in place, the former support at Y-1 / B-0 is now strong resistance. Consolidation this week is likely at 50% week range.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ attempted to move higher from Y+1 but failed. That opened the door to Y-0. First leg down stopped at 50% week range and tried to drift back up like a normal consolidation week. Y+1 acted as resistance since and by op-ex Friday, the breakdown took NQ down to its below Y-0 target Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
NQ has now established its daily down trend. Until weekly support levels below are tested, NQ will have difficulties to go higher. B-0 now strong resistance zone.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Beautiful all week bear flag from the week before led to a gap down open near Y-1. Test of support below Y-1 produced a strong double bottom on 4 hours leading to a move from Y-1 to Y+1 quickly. Y+1 cleared and my Y+2 target was tagged later. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside up close is bullish. Y+1 / B-0 support for at least a retest of B+1. Consolidation is expected near previous week close at 50% week range.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Option expiration week played out perfectly to mess with everyone who forgets about it since last month. Initial attempt to blast higher from Y+1 failed leading to first flush to near Y-0 and prior resistance zone ES broke out from. Bounced off hard leading to 2nd attempt to hold Y+1 as support for upside range expansion. Yer failed again and by Friday the powerful gap down forced ES to tag the Y-0 target finally. Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Daily up trend is now broken but down trend is not established yet. This means we are going to have wild rides intraday as bulls and bears scramble to defend their turfs. Strong resistance at the open gap above. If daily level down trend is about to emerge, this gap will not be filled for a long time.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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