- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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ECB surprised the world with its QE last week. Euro consolidated until the leak of the announcement and dropped straight down. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.
1.12 was an old support zone from many years ago. If Euro can hold Y-3 area, a bounce back up to B-0 is likely.
Y-0 failed to hold NQ down, gave it the perfect excuse to squeeze back up to Y+1. NQ was able to hold above Y+1 and consolidated there. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.
A retest of Y+1 is in order. Breaking below on daily closing basis points to at least moving back down to B-0 if not lower. As oppose to what many people may think, NQ is not making a bullish pattern here. It is developing a complex top that is often seen in Nasdaq stocks.
Inside week with minimal actions. Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.
A retest of Y-1 is likely as long as ninja cannot clear B+1. Weekly level consolidation takes time.
Aussie followed its peers and collapsed down to 100% range expansion. Closed the week below Y-2 and near week low.
Consolidation likely as long as Y-3 acts as support.
Was consolidating until BOC surprised the world with a rate cut. Surprise breakout target of 200% range expansion tagged by the end of the week. Closed the week above Y+4 and near week high.
Canada is an exporter of natural resources and rate cut does not improve its competitiveness in those markets even though Loonie took a direct hit. Long term negative impact on economic growth will be felt in 6 months.
More upside likely this week as many shorts are trapped. 1.26 is next mild resistance zone that may put a pause to the run.
Cable followed its peers and dropped. Found support at Y-2 and paused. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
1.50 key psychological level breached. Cable must snap back above B-0 and stay above by close of next week or another wave of liquidation is coming to send cable much lower.
Consolidation with a twist – huge intraday volatility. Other than that, equal distance from Y-0 and open points to a normal week of consolidation after the wild week prior. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Inside week with Y-0 and B-0 near each other. For a bear flag on daily the run from last week was too steep. For a reversal, it is too choppy and slow. We are looking at further consolidation this week until one side gives up.
ES behaves more like NQ like week than Dow. Early in the week ES found support at 2000 round number zone and cleared Y-0 on 2nd try. Y-0 support sent ES to Y+1. ES failed to hold Y-1 and dropped back down. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Potential FBO against Y+1 with B-0 down to Y-0 in play. The up move was too choppy to carry ES much higher. It is more likely we will get a deep pullback first before ES can decide what to happen next.
Target of 1.20 tagged early in the week. Then SNB mess sent this back down to Y-0 support. A squeeze was launched with parabolic target at Y+3 tagged by the end of the week. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.
1.20 is long term parking zone. It will be difficult to see much more up side from here until we see some consolidation / pullback on weekly. This week consolidation at 50% range around close is likely.
Y-0 support sent Dow back up to Y+1 for a test. We know it is strong resistance and Dow reacted to it and dropped straight down to Y-1. The mess from SNB made Dow not able to move on its own by the end of the week so it drifted back up. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Resistance Y-0 / B-0 area points to limited up side with potential to consolidate around close at 50% range. The risk of selling back down for a retest of B-1 and expanding lower to B-2 is high but not necessary happening this week.
Retest of Y-1 is expected and tagged early in the week. Euro could not hold Y-1 and started a slide lower. Then SNB uncap Swiss Franc on Thursday sent euro straight down to normal breakout target of Y-3 and below. Closed the week near Y-3 and below midpoint.
It will take time for Euro to settle down as many financial institutions and major companies around the world are badly affected by the SNB decision. Expect surge in volatility in coming weeks.
Strong resistance at B-0 with consolidation around B-1 likely.
Aussie spiked above Y+1 yet not able to hold above. Consolidated above Y-0. Swinged below with immediate snap back points to retest of Y+1 and above. Got Y+2 and stalled. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Support held up well. Following the chopping up drift in gold closely. Retest of B+1 is likely.
Easy one for the week. Y-0 resistance dropped directionally down to Y-2 and below. Closed the week below Y-1 and near midpoint.
The weekly level pullback in progress. Volatility is picking up. Until ninja can sit above Y-1 as support the pullback / consolidation will continue.
Y-0 support sent NQ higher to test Y+1. Failed to clear it and dropped back down to normal target of Y-1. Got Y-1 and consolidated since. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Retest of Y-0 / B-0 likely as the drop to Y-1 was meant with great resistance. If B-0 / Y-0 area proven strong enough to hold NQ down then NQ has more down side in coming 2 weeks.
Inside week consolidation around Y-0. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
The downside retest of Y-1 has not happened yet so it is still in the card this week. If cable can hold Y-1 / B-2 zone and snap back up quickly above Y-0, we have a short term low in place.
Without that, down trend intact.
ES dropped ti Y-0, found support, zoomed back up to test the pre-break down level and failed to clear Y+1. This gave us a go for Y-1. Got Y-1 quickly and trying to hold the zone since. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Strong resistance at Y-0 / B-0 zone. Failing to clear B-0 and sitting above it as support will lead to retest of B-1 and further pullback to B-2.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2015 Jan 26 – 2015 Jan 30
2015 Jan 19 – 2015 Jan 23
2015 Jan 12 – 2015 Jan 16
2014 Jan 6 – 2014 Jan 10
2014 Dec 29 – 2015 Jan 2
2014 Dec 22 – 2014 Dec 26
2014 Dec 15 – 2014 Dec 19
2014 Dec 8 – 2014 Dec 12
2014 Dec 1 – 2014 Dec 5
2014 Nov 24 – 2014 Nov 28
2014 Nov 17 – 2014 Nov 21
2014 Nov 10 – 2014 Nov 14
2014 Nov 3 – 2014 Nov 7
2014 Oct 27 – 2014 Oct 31
2014 Oct 20 – 2014 Oct 24
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.