Weekly Outlook
- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Lawrence’s Comment
The weakest among the 3 indices. Took NQ 3 tries to go lower before it finally rejected the gap below and started its zoom up. Even the zoom up was weak as it kept having trouble to push higher. Before 50% range of the week prior to the last one was reached, NQ already stalled. Closed the week near week high and above Y+1.
Outlook
Although NQ was weak, it was its consolidation week so it is expected. The key is that it held its Y+1 level and closed near the high of the week. If NQ can clear B+2 quickly early this week it can zoom to B+1 / Y+2 easily which is conveniently sitting around the round number 3000.
If B-1 is breached, however, a quick drop to B-3 will be very likely.
Lawrence’s Comment
Cleared my resistance zone. Landed at target Y+3. Good enough for me. Closed the week at Y+3 and near week high.
Outlook
Two possible scenarios. First, consolidation around or above B+1 is likely as ninja cleared the major resistance in 1 go and in need to absorb the imbalance first. Second, if Y+3 serves as support, the melt up will have a good chance to continue and force a print at B+2 first.
Lawrence’s Comment
This pair caught me by surprise with a breakout to the downside. When Y-1 rejected the bounce we got a go for Y-3. Flushed all the way down to Y-4 before Aussie found support. Closed the week above Y-4 and below midpoint.
Outlook
Australia is now infected by the currency war hence it will move like them from now on. Without support from gold, Aussie will probably stuck at the bottom of the range around Y-4 this week. If Gold can rally back up early this week, looking for Aussie to bounce back up to B-0.
Lawrence’s Comment
Went lower as expected. It was interesting that it dropped in a slow 3 pushes down pattern. Before Y-2 was tagged, the pattern zoomed the pair back up to where it started at Y-0. Closed the week above midpoint and below Y-0.
Outlook
Part of the overall US dollar strengthening as the effect of BOJ’s action has now leaked into the other pairs. As long as B-0 acting as support, retest of B+1 is likely. Looking for B+2 to be challenged as long as Y-1 can hold this pair up should it choose to push below B-0.
Lawrence’s Comment
Got the bearish action I was looking for right from the start of the week. Took 2 tries though before cable breaks its support. Dropped to Y-3 by end of the week. Closed the week above Y-3 and below midpoint.
Outlook
Rejected B+1 / Y+1 with a slightly lower high. Will be difficult for cable to go back above B-0 for some time. Consolidation around or below B-1 with downside bias towards tagging at least Y-4.
Lawrence’s Comment
Tried to move higher but the price action was just too weak. Bear flag top gave us a flush back down to my downside target Y-2. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
More downside expected with B-0 as solid resistance.
Lawrence’s Comment
No retest of the support trendline. Instead, follow thru with another straight up rally for 4 days in a row. Found resistance near Y+2. Closed the week above midpoint and Y+1.
Outlook
Retest of B+1 or going higher to tag Y+2 is normal. The problem is that Dow has pretty much exhausted all its buying power with almost no support within nearest 200 points. It has setup itself for a nasty drop to at least B-2.
Of course, as everyone already know, any significant drop will have to be subjected to the mercy of Fed. But what if someone bad happens that Bennie and friends have not anticipated?
Lawrence’s Comment
Similar to Dow, ES ripped thru resistance zone and went straight up for days. Classic blowoff top type action. Almost tagged Y+2 and stalled. Closed the week near week high and above Y+1.
Outlook
Limited upside to below B+2 with possible whiplash action to drop back down to B-2.
It is clear that ES is in a topping process here. Structural boundaries will likely be breached at various timeframes without providing us actual direction of the market. Staying on the sideline is a good choice if this kind of volatility is not your cup of tea.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2013 May 20 – 2013 May 24
2013 May 13 – 2013 May 17
2013 May 6 – 2013 May 10
2013 Apr 29 – 2013 May 3
2013 Apr 22 – 2013 Apr 26
2013 Apr 15 – 2013 Apr 19
2013 Apr 8 – 2013 Apr 12
2013 Apr 1 – 2013 Apr 5
2013 Mar 25 – 2013 Mar 29
2013 Mar 18 – 2013 Mar 22
2013 Mar 11 – 2013 Mar 15
2013 Mar 4 – 2013 Mar 8
2013 Feb 25 – 2013 Mar 1
2013 Feb 18 – 2013 Feb 22
2013 Feb 11 – 2013 Feb 15
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.
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