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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD and classic Chart Reading Techniques in actively traded markets
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End-of-day trader / swing trader looking for useful analysis beyond daytrading? Take a look at our proprietary Weekly Cycle Projection.






Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dow gapped down to longer term critical support level and rallied from there since. Although Dow has tried hard to push higher it did not get Y-0 at the end. Closed the week below Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
B-0 / Y-1 potential support but not necessary a strong one especially if B+1 / Y-0 is tested first and rejected.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Up trend line on 4 hour breached early in the week. This led to Y-1 and a test of the wide range bar below where the breakout started 2 weeks ago. Shorts scrambled to cover on this first opportunity to scratch their trades. Closed the week back up near Y+1 and week high.

Outlook
Weekly up trend intact with more upside expected. I will not be surprised if BOC will intervene (like jawboning) if 1.32 is breached.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Pullback to Y-2 support zone as expected. Ninja rallied since to tag Y+1. Strong reaction at Y+1 zone bought ninja back down. Closed the week below Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Intervention dynamics making it more difficult to clear the weekly resistance above. BOJ official position is that ninja going higher is not “sustainable”. On weekly basis, ninja is in a strong up trend. Consolidation in the current range is bullish.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ gapped down to start the week, giving it a reason to rally higher once Y-1 was cleared. NQ pushed hard all week trying to get Y-0. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-1 / B-0 now support for a test of B+1 / Y-0. As long as that is not cleared, NQ is facing a potential of forming a longer term top here.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Euro consolidated between Y+2 (the crime scene before the last flush) and Y-0 (wedge breakout support). Y+1 / 1.10 did not act as support hence no short term trend change yet. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Summer trading was suppose to be slow and tight range. But here we go again Greece is having another referendum over this weekend. This time the ruling party itself is at the crossroad. Cannot tell what the impact is so Euro is a wait and see for me this week.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 breached early in the week put Y+1 in play. Y+1 tagged but cable failed to hold above it. Stuggled between Y+1 and Y-0 since. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
3rd week trapped in the same range is very strong compression. Breakout mode in place. First move out of the range has to be strong enough to carry cable outside of the range by 25% or the mode can be a fake out.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Aussie found support at Y-1 and bounced towards Y-0. Y-0 very strong resistance as explained last week which forced Aussie to retest Y-1. Y-1 spike reversal against Y-1 and popped back up to challenge Y-0 yet failed again. Closed the week below Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Stair step down trend points to more downside. Until Y-0 / B+1 turning into support down trend in strong.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES gap lower to start the week from long term support zone where the major open gaps are. ES found support there and launched a rally straight back up to previous week midpoint to welcome the FOMC announcement. ES struggled since in consolidation around Y-0. Closed the week near Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Indecision after FOMC meeting means there is a fight to be carried out this week. Until we see a clear trend develops on 30-min, this week may ended up being a normal summer tight range week.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y+1 resistance sent Cable back down to Y-1 as expected. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week weak close is bearish. Breakout mode with B-0 cleared from below will lead to at least a test of B+1. B-0 strong resistance until proven otherwise with downside breakout more likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected Ninja popped slightly higher and stalled. Consolidation with 50% range. Closed the week above Y-0 and belo w midpoint.

Outlook
It takes time to absorb the rally. Pullback on daily in progress and a drop to Y-0 / B-2 is not a surprise. As long as the pullback can hold within the top part of the rally it points to more upside on weekly.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Deep pullback to Y-0 as expected. Closed the week near Y-0 and week low.

Outlook
Potential significant top in place as NQ new high was not comfirmed by Dow or ES. Can lead to quick drop back down to Y-1 if NQ cannot close above B-0 by end of this week.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bearish bias worked out. Y-0 resistance sent Aussie down to Y-2 normal target. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.

Outlook
Y-3 target is still in play. Y-1 / B-0 strong resistance until proven otherwise.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Weakest of the 3 major indices. The dirty bottom mentioned last week was being retested by the end of the week. Closed the week below Y-3 and near week low.

Outlook
Directional momentum moves cannot be stopped easily. More downside is expected. Until B-1 turning into support after flushed through, we do not have a strong case for counter-trend bounce play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Euro bounced off Y-1 back to Y-0 / 1.10 long term support which is now strong resistance. Closed the week below Y-0 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Euro daily level bear flag. Not the time to be bullish until Y-0 / 1.10 turning into support again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation around previous week close / Y+1 as expected. 50% range. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation around Y+1 is bullish. Up channel like behaviour at multiple year high implies bulls are in control. Until the up trend line support from the past several weeks is broken, the up drift can continue until more stops above are discovered.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES followed the other 2 indices making a major reversal. Custom breadth models correctly identified the expected weaknesses. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Y-1 now strong resistance, the open gaps below are in play in coming weeks.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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