- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Whiplash action week. Ninja pushed lower to challenge the prior outside week low and failed to breach the support, that opened the door to a rally back to the top of the range above Y+1. At the end of the week, ninja did a blowoff move to Y+3 before it can finally stop. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.
I was wrong last week thinking that ninja would be trapped inside the range of the prior two weeks. Development in Ukraine nudged ninja higher. It is not really a surprising move though because it is similar to what happened back in August 2008 when the conflict between Russia and Georgia happened.
Still leaning towards range bounded actions until the situation in Ukraine is resolved.
Aussie was the easy play last week. As Y-0 was breached, the down channel was broken giving us upside target of Y+1 and above. Aussie zoomed back up to Y+2. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Gold pushed further up giving Aussie the push necessary to break its downtrend. From here though Aussie needs to absorb the run up. Consolidation around Y+1 with 50% range is expected.
Another easy play last week. Y-0 acted as resistance giving us the Y-2 target as expected. Buying showed up, surprised the sell side and squeezed higher. Closed the week below Y-0 and above midpoint.
As long as B-0 acting as support the potential to retest the spike high near B+2 is in play.
The 2nd reject of 1.10 points has longer term implications. This can be the start of long term weaknesses in Loonie.
Consolidation week. Edged higher above Y+1 but failed to hold above it. Closed the week above Y-0 and near midpoint.
There is no real direction developed from the week. Ukraine situation is now center stage and the development there will dictate the direction of the next move. Not the best envrionment to bet before the dust settled.
Expect cable to be trapped inside the range over the past 3 weeks.
My comments for euro last week did not show up properly. What I was looking for was normal breakout follow through since last week was outside week with close above the range of the week before.
Anyway, strong pullback to Y-0 first holding the zone. Then the usual stupidity from ECB and EU led to an all out squeeze up again to tag Y+1. Euro could not stop until hitting Y+2. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
This 2nd squeeze up created a void that has to be filled. As long as B+1 is acting as resistance, euro will have to backfill the zone down to B-0 and slightly below.
Completely nailed the swings on this one. First move down to Y-1 and below. FBO there gave us a run back up to Y+1. Consolidated since around Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Outside week with close above Y+1. B+1 retest likely. Should B+1 turns into resistance we get a drop back down to B-0 easily.
Non-diretional swings caught both bulls and bears by surprise. NQ started the week almost tagging Y-2 and then gapped higher to clean out the stops. Yet by end of week NQ collapsed back down to week mid. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Outside week with close near the midpoints is indecision. NQ is not as bullish as S&P or Dow. It is hitting a brick wall above yet the late bulls are piling on at every mild pullback. This implies a bigger shake out on weekly is in the making. As long as Y+1 is acting as resistance I see more wild actions to the downside but not necessary breaking Y-1 by much.
S&P followed the path of Dow instead of what its price pattern suggested. Clear signs that shorts are squeezed and forced to give up. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Outside week with strong close points to more upside.
B+1 acting as resistance will give us a quick flush back down to Y+1.
1900 above is easy target once B+1 is cleared.
Consolidation actions as expected. Rally towards end of week was mainly a stop hunt. Sold off by end of the week due to news shock regarding conflict in Ukraine. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
No strong bias for either direction. Closing near open of the week points to indecision. B-1 is now very important support. Once it is breached a flush back down to B-3 is likely.
As expected, ninja dropped back down to Y-0. After it breached Y-0, ninja weaken further. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Inside week after outside week with Y-0 and B-0 near each other. Indecision continues. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, it may lead to the spike up because of classic flight to safety reaction. But until the conflict in Ukraine is resolved, currencies will not be able to produce meaningful moves.
No drastic move last week. 2nd week of pullback from the multiple week rally. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Still moving within the context of consolidation / pullback mode. Until gold can make a move out of its current range, there is nothing much to lean on.
A down channel is now in place, as long as Aussie failed to clear B-0, there is probably one more down move to go.
As expected pullback to Y-0 and stuck in a tight range since. Consolidation around Monday range all week. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.
1-2-3 sell on 4 hours points to B-2 and lower. Not necessary a very bearish move just that real buyers have to step in from the support area below B-1 to enable another leg up.
The easy play of the week. Cable dropped below Y-1 and snap back up immediately gave us the long setup. Steady up drift. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Not the strongest rally one would like to see. Now that war is throw into the mix. It will be difficult to get a follow through from here.
Looking for sideway actions until the war in Ukraine is over.
Gap above Y+1 killed the pullback potential down to Y-2. That did not changed the consolidation actions that is expected for the week. Wild swings by the end of the week thanks to Mrs. Yellen testimony and crisis in Ukraine. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.
A quick drop below B-0 / Y+1 and that turning into resistance will give us a run to at least below B-1.
First move for the week however is more unpredictable at this point because of the escalation of conflict in Ukraine. For normal situation a retest of B+1 is likely.
Open the week with clean break above Y+1 opened the door to Y+2 and Y+3 since. Multiple attempts to go lower has failed leading to end of week rally to almost Y+3. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.
End of week flush lower was direct reaction to the conflict in Ukraine. Althought S&P has recovered it does not change the fact that people may not react well to the current development there.
Looking for range bounded actions below B+1 and B-1.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2014 Mar 10 – 2014 Mar 14
2014 Mar 3 – 2014 Mar 7
2014 Feb 24 – 2014 Feb 28
2014 Feb 17 – 2014 Feb 21
2014 Feb 10 – 2014 Feb 14
2014 Feb 3 – 2014 Feb 7
2014 Jan 27 – 2014 Jan 31
2014 Jan 20 – 2014 Jan 24
2014 Jan 13 – 2014 Jan 17
2013 Jan 7 – 2013 Jan 11
2013 Dec 30 – 2014 Jan 3
2013 Dec 23 – 2013 Dec 27
2013 Dec 16 – 2013 Dec 20
2013 Dec 9 – 2013 Dec 13
2013 Dec 2 – 2013 Dec 6
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.