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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of the week. The pair simply rejected resistance and dropped to target. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Pullback in progress. Strong support between B-1 down to B-2 on weekly and higher timeframes. 1.08 is the magic support / resistance for years in the past. Once B-0 is cleared retest of Y+1 likely.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Support at previous week close gave Dow a platform to go higher. Target Y+2 tagged and then a stop run overnight zoomed YM higher and then collapsed back down to Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
As mentioned last week the false bottom should give Dow boost back upto Y+2. The pullback is now over. Continuation sell on daily from here points to proper retest of Y-1 and below in coming 2 weeks.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Down channel resistance breached right from the beginning of the week. Gave us an up drift consolidation week. 50% range capped the upside. Closed the week above Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week closing between Y-0 and midpoint implies indecision. Breakout play down to B-2 or up to B+2 in the making.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bottom from last week acting as support as expected but situation in Ukraine and banking problems in Europe is turning the pair into a mess. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week closing above Y-0 and midpoint. Not as strong as one would like to see. Setting up FBO on the boundary (Y+1 and Y-1) that tagged first with the other end next.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
More weaknesses as expected with Y-0 resistance worked out perfectly. Flushed down to below Y-2 target. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Cable is simply playing catch up with Euro. Y-1 / B-0 strong resistance zone with Y-4 potential target for sharp bounce back to resistance.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Found support near Y-1 and started an up drift back to crime scene last week. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Another pair with inside week formation. Bear flag on 4-hour and higher timeframes. Breaking bear flag support points to continuation sell below Y-1.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bullish scenario unfolded as Y+1 tagged first with Y-0 support leading to a run to Y+2. Option expiration Friday even jumped NQ to Y+3 by open yet failed to hold onto the gain. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Potential FBO against previous month high / former year high. Breach of B-0 points to a flush to at least below B-1 / Y-0.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES found support at previous week close and zoomed to Y+2 right above 3 pushes down target. Strong reaction to Y+2 sent ES back down to Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Classic 3 pushes down target tagged, no more fuel to go higher from here. ES needs to find support at Y-0 / B-1 zone or B-2 / Y-1 will be tagged quickly this week.

No comment yet





Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected, Aussie stays weak and failed to clear Y-0. Dropped below Y-1 and stopped at equal distance off previous week close. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Decisive rejection of Y-0 gave us clean break of Y-1 thus Y-2 is still in play. It is also the original target stated last week. As long as B-0 is acting as resistance it is likely we get Y-2 and B-2 either this week or next.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation around previous week close at 50% range. End of week rally took Dow back up. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation week with up close not as bullish as it seems. Building on the false bottom with B-0 support Dow can rally back up to B+2.

One comment



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Weak pullback not even touching Y-0 ended with another drop to Y-1. Eventually Y-1 was cleared giving us equal distance from previous week close. Closed the week below Y-1 and at week low.

Outlook
Consolidation action with weak close is bearish. More down side is expected. A quick flush to B-2 early next week can produce a temporary support for a bounce back up to B+1 / Y-0.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
First attempt in the week to hold Y-0 and push higher failed resulting in a drop to Y-1 and Y-2. A strong bottom was then formed with euro pushed back up. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
The bottom forming was a complex one but it is still a temporary bottom. As long as Y-1 / B-0 acting as support euro has a chance to challenge B+2 / 1.35 swing resistance.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Strongest among the 3 indices, NQ consolidated between Y-0 and Y-1. NQ also formed a rare down side triangle with potential up side breakout by the end of the week. Closed the week above Y-1 and near midpoint.

Outlook
As mentioned before NQ is the strongest one on weekly thus it is likely to hold back the selloff in the other 2 indices. Since Y-1 was rejected, Y-0 is the likely retest and a push to B+2 will not be a surprise.

By end of the week if NQ fails to clear Y-0 / B-0 it will be quite bearish for NQ going into end of August.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation expectation was correct with ninja dropped back down near Y-1 at the support area mentioned last week. Bounce from support failed to clear Y-0 led to another drop to below Y-1. Closed the week above Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
B-0 / Y-0 resistance can lead to potential down channel over coming few weeks. Better bottom on 4 hours will give us a test of Y-0.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y+1 cleared as expected. Consolidation action around Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Condolidation with strong close implies above B+1 likely. Strong reversal from above B+1 and below B+2 quickly down to B-0 points to swing top in the making with B-2 and below target.

No comment yet



Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation actions around previous week close. Equal distance from previous week close established. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
3 Pushes Down target Y-0. 3 Pushes Down is not a high probability bottom formation, it is mainly a pause before continuation happens. Fit for the option expiration this week that disrupt the down trend for now.

2 comments




Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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