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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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End-of-day trader / swing trader looking for useful analysis beyond daytrading? Take a look at our proprietary Weekly Cycle Projection.






Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As explained last week, Dow was locked in range and it happened again. Y+1 resistance sent Dow straight back down to Y-0 and stuck there. Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Y-0 / B-0 now strong resistance until proven otherwise. A break of B-1 will lead to quick flush down to B-2 and below to continue the range expansion to the down side.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As explained last week, short term low should be in place and it worked out nicely. Y-0 support sent this up to Y+1 and pushed up again but failed to hold above Y+1. Closed the week above Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
3 pushes up pattern suggests consolidation with a retest of B-1 in play. As long as B-1 holds, the short term bottom is intact.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Pullback consolidation play worked out. Y-0 target tagged. 50% range. Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
A retest of Y+1 is possible but only if cable can clear B-0 decisively. Potential spike and ledge in the making with target below Y-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Was looking for signs of weekly up trend to be defended and we got it last week. Y-1 / previous week close acted as support and sent ninja back to near Y+1. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week with both midpoints at about same level. Upside breakout points to a run to at least B+2 and potentially B+3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Wait and see mode last week on euro. Strong breakdown move happened after a deal with Greece failed. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
As the decision on Greece is not over, euro can easily bounce back up to B-0 / Y-0 to wait for the outcome. A decisive break below B-1 will drop it down to B-2 and B-3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ struggled in the beginning of the week to stay above Y+1 yet failed to hold above it suggesting Y-0 was in play. By the end of the week, the selloff materialized with Y-0 tagged perfectly. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Potential short term top in place. As long as B-0 acting as resistance daily down trend in the making.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
The FBO short play worked out perfectly with Y-1 tagged by the end of the week. Y-0 acted as resistance all week. Closed the week near Y-1 and week low.

Outlook
B-0 resistance until proven otherwise, potential daily down trend in the making.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
FBO Monday against Y+1 set the stage for a drop back down to Y-0. The rest of the week just played out the script. Y-0 tagged eventually and ES simply stuck there since. Closed the week near Y-0 and near week low.

Outlook
3 pushes down on 30-min points to a potential bounce back up to B-0. That can happen easily given the situation with Greece still suppressing the liquidity. In addition, it is holiday week for Canada and United States that further reduce trading volume. So price movement can be more volatile but without follow thru.

If ES fails to clear B-0 and stay above by end of the week it will be very bearish on daily basis.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bullish expectation worked out with gaps above all taken care of. Op ex pinned Dow below 18000 round number at Y-0 maximizing the damage to both calls and puts buyers. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y-0 / B-0 strong support until proven otherwise. 3 weeks in a row with expanded range, yet all locked back in the same zone. Major indecision phase with more volatility both ways.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Trapped inside previous week range until news shock. FBO on 4 hour against breakout upside boundary. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
FBO setup points to potential move down to Y-1 as long as Y+1 acting as resistance. Break of Y-1 points to Y-3 in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
No test of Y-0 with straight up breakout. That gave us Y+2 target. Y+2 tagged easily with 100% absolute range expansion stopped the run. Closed the week above Y+2 and near week high.

Outlook
Stop run move points to consolidation and a test of B-0 is in order. Resistance at B+1 / Y+3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected, Y-0 resistance with a test of Y-1 after flat line action in the beginning of the week. Closed the week near Y-1 and week low.

Outlook
Weekly support below 122. If ninja is in its weekly consolidation, 122 will be tested and reactions there will tell us if the weekly up trend can resume.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 support sent NQ back up to take care of the gaps above. Stop run sent NQ above Y+1. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week with close below Y+1 is a strong attempt to break the weekly correction / consolidation without confirming the strength. A quick drop back down to B-0 / Y-0 is possible but not necessary. A breakout move above B+1 will send NQ up to 4600 / B+2.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Compression as expected. FBO against Y+1 later in the week did not lead to a breakdown as situation with Greece has no decision yet. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Don’t read too much into the price actions. Evertyhing depends on the outcome with Greece and the breakout move will tell us what to do. Be patient and wait for it.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 resistance with a drop to Y-1 worked out perfectly. The spike low below Y-1 forced a run back up to the crime scene where the drop started. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Short term low in place as long as Y-1 is acting as support with B+1 and above in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES FBO against Y-1 forced a run back up to Y-0. Y-0 resistance dropped ES back down to neckline of 1-2-3 buy on 30-min. ES rallied from that support and took out Y+1. 1-2-3 sell from Y+1 dropped ES back down. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week closing back down near mid zone means indecision. The expanded range simply implies there are more players getting involved and trapped in both directions. Y-0 / B-0 strong support for a test of Y+1 / B+1 zone. Breakout above will send ES up to Y+2 / B+2 quickly.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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