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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD and classic Chart Reading Techniques in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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End-of-day trader / swing trader looking for useful analysis beyond daytrading? Take a look at our proprietary Weekly Cycle Projection.






Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Currency war at its finest – ninja found resistance at previous week close and dropped itself down to Y-0. In turn words exchange at the central bank level broken Y-0 support and sent ninja back down below Y-1. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Another week of 500 pips week range registered. Daily level attempt to push higher failed with ninja falling back to longer term support again. If ninja can hold Y-2 and snap back above B-1 quickly, a run back up to B-0 will be in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Limited upside done on Monday. Held onto 50% pullback from the swing low 2 weeks prior. Test of Monday high failed and stalled back down to Y-0. Closed the week near Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Stronger than both ES and NQ, Dow defended Y-0 by close. As long as Y-0 holds, Dow can go higher to B+1 and B+2. Breaking below B-1 will confirm double top setup with B-3 target.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Surprise rally tagging Y+1 negated the bear flag break on 4 hours and in turn giving us STOPD shcok breakout target of Y+3. Y+3 almost tagged and cable stalled from there. Closed the week above Y+1 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Shock driven rally in a daily down trend does not change the trend on higher timeframe. This means cable has to fight the week and monthly resistance above now making it more difficult to engage this coming 2 weeks. 2 way swings expected with tight range around B-0.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ 4300 resistance led to FBO against Y+1 setup materialized giving us Y-1. Since then Y-0 resistance gave us break down play to Y-2. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.

Outlook
As mentioned last week the swing low on daily will be in play once we get the FBO setup. A flush to Y-3 can lead to a temporary pause this week. A bounce to Y-1 potential if NQ can find support right below B-1 and above Y-3 early in the week.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Found support at Y-0 / support zone mentioned last week and started a squeeze up to normal Y+2 target. Resistance at Y+2 dropped Aussie back down to previous week close. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Aussie at up trend line support. This holds, another push higher likely. Resistance at Y+1 / B-0 breaking the close will give us B-2.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Breakout play worked out, just to the surprise of many that it was to the upside. It is not a surprise to my premium members as they learned from my newsletter than short side has been too crowded as of end of January. Upside target of Y+3 tagged and the follow through went up to Y+4. Closed the week near Y+3 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Daily down trend broken. Weekly down trend broken. Euro is now in daily and weekly no trend condition which makes all the swings on daily level to have weak or no follow through. B-0 support with consolidation around close likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-1 FBO led to a bounce back up to resistance below Y-0. 2nd attempt at Y-1 gave us a clean drop to below Y-2 and 100% absolute range expansion and bounced from there. Closed the week below Y-1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Breaking down from daily support down to weekly support. Strong reaction at weekly support suggest that potential bottom building in progress on weekly level. Expect more sideway actions and resistance at Y-1 / B-0 zone. If Y-1 turning into support and B+1 is cleared, upside target B+2.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Monday FBO Y+1 gave us gap down to Y-0 which opened the door to Y-1. Y-1 tagged with strong reaction to push back up to challenge the open gap made on Tuesday. Failure to clear the open gap led to flush down back to the open gap boundary below. Closed the week near Y-1 and week low.

Outlook
Break down play potential towards Y-2 / B-2 area. That holds, a test of B-1 from below likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Cable found support at Y-0 for a test of Y+1. Y+1 resistance on first try and sent cable back down to Y-0. Second attempt at Y+1 led to FBO and sent cable back down to week low. Closed the week near Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Reversal attempt on daily level failed. 4 Hour up channel / bear flag last week points to retest of Y-1 in the making. As long as B-0 / Y-0 zone acting as resistance B-2 in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation actions with equal distance from Y-1. 1.40 longer term support tested from above. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Up channel breakdown target tagged. Consolidation around B-1 likely as weekly and monthly breakout points to consolidation at prior resistance.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation action at support as mentioned last week. FOMC announcement sent ES back down to retest the support zone and it was defended. Short squeeze on Friday finished the job by sending ES up to equal distance from previous week close. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Squeeze driven rally does not last. Y+2 / B+2 strong resistance zone with Y+1 / B-0 retest likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Euro formed an up channel and drifted higher all week to near Y+1. Channel breakdown led to flush back down to near Y-1. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week points to breakout mode. Clean break of Y+1 points to Y+2 and Y+3 while clean break of Y-1 points to Y-2 and Y-3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 support and then breakout to the upside. 100% absolute range expansion stopped the rally. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y+1 / B-0 support for the breakout play to continue with upside target Y+3. Failing to hold above Y+1 and that turning into resistance points to Y-1 and below in play.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 support and then breakout to upside target mentioned last week. Stalled when getting near Y+3. Closed the week above Y+2 and near week high.

Outlook
weekly consolidation / pullback is now over. Weekly uptrend continuation confirmed. Strong support at Y+1 / B-0 zone. More upside in coming weeks.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation actions within Y+1 and Y-0 as expected until FOMC announcement. Breakout to the upside and filled the open gap above. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Y+2 target not tagged yet and should be taken care of quickly next week. Limited upside potential with B+2 potential exhaustion run target.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ forced back down to Y-0 as expected. Strong buying defended Y-0 and sent NQ back up to retest Y+1. Closed the week near Y+1 and week high.

Outlook
Upside breakout will give us B+2. Very strong resistance on weekly basis above B+2. 4300 resistance dropping NQ back down below Y+1 / B+1 can lead to FBO setup for breakdown play down the Y-1 in coming weeks.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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