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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
No FBO so trend continue until 100% absolute range expansion tagged. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.

Outlook
A clear sign of stop run happen around 108 which was the recommended stop from many firms. This implies short term swing top is in the making with a pullback to Y+1 and below likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation around week open below Y-1. Jumpy was probably the best word for what happened last week. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Consolidation with weak close points to more downside. B-2 is in play with B-0 / Y-1 now strong resistance.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
1-2-3 sell off Y+1 on 4 hour points to Y-0 in play. Y-0 failed to act as support, giving us Y-1 target below. Flush later in the week tagged 1.09 near Y-1 and bounced. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Up trend broken on 4 hour. Back to no trend on daily. Sideway actions likely. Should gold fails to hold 1200 level, we can easily see a pop here back up to B+1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Wild ride as mentioned last week. Pretty much straight up from Y-1 to Y+2 with very strong reactions between Y-0 and Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Extreme reactions were the result of multiple factors. Post FOMC meeting usually results in a move back to the price level right before the announcement (i.e. crime scene). So until B-0 is tested the upside is likely to be capped slight above B+1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
A drop to Y-2 before NQ can stop, checked. A squeeze back up to Y-0, checked. NQ was the well behaving one last week. Post FOMC swing up to Y+1 completing the move and stalled since. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week. Completion of the pullback and reversal back to Y+1 all within a week. Consolidation after such big swings is expected. Wild swings between B+1 and B-0 likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bear flag broken, dropped to B-1 and below as expected. Bounced back up to Y-0 and led to another drop to week low. Closed the week below Y-1 and at week low.

Outlook
Euro is hanging on a thread here above 1.28. A spike low below B-2 can stop the current down move if a strong bounce is resulted from the flush. Until Euro can reclaim B-0, it will not be strong enough to move higher to the longer term resistance at B+2 / Y+3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
A short squeeze from the bear flag as expected. Cable rushed to Y+3 before it stopped. Such move has no staying power and led to quick drop back down to Y+1. Closed the week near Y+1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Short squeeze done. Weak shorts transferred their positions to the strong ones. Y+2 / B-0 resistance for a drop back down to Y-1 and below.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Hard squeeze back to Y-0 as expected. Then strong reactions around Y-0 led to another squeeze to Y+1, the other extreme. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Potential FBO against Y+1 in place as Friday failed to close above Y+1. As long as Y+1 acting as resistance ES likely move back down to B-0 and below.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Aussie breached Y-0 and gave us a nice drop to Y-1. Failed to hold Y-1 and broke down to Y-2 and then Y-3 before it could bounce. Y-2 resistance sent it down to Y-4 eventually. Closed the week below Y-4 and near week low.

Outlook
Gold’s weaknesses foretell this pullback in Aussie a week ago. The extension to Y-4 was a surprise. Weekly trend is now down. B-0 strong resistance with lower price level expected early next week. Even if Aussie goes into consolidation, it will be wild swings both ways.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Test of Y+1 failed on first try sent NQ back down to Y-0. Y-0 support sent NQ on 2nd try to Y+1. FBO Y+1 sent NQ down to almost Y-1 but stopped at 100% absolute expansion. Took Dow and ES going weak to drag NQ down to Y-1. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week. Closed within previous week range. Not as weak as it looks. A bounce back to B-0 is not a surprise. Should NQ gap below Y-1 / B-1 to start the week, a slide to B-2 is necessary before it can stop.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Cable gapped down and tagged Y-2 first. The stage was set for an up drift back to Y-1. Consolidation week around open instead of previous week close. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week high.

Outlook
All week bear flag. A short squeeze will take cable higher to B+2 but it will likely be capped there. A break of its bear flag support points to at least a retest of B-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
No consolidation whatsoever as Abe and BOJ worked together with one announcement after another to make sure ninja going higher. Break out play tagged normal Y+3 target. Closed the week at Y+3 and near week high.

Outlook
Ninja moving higher in a channel. Well structured channel do not last. FBO against B+1 will give us a pullback to B-0.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Exactly as expected, stopped right at resistance mentioned last week and sold off down to target Y-2 below. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Weekly up trend broken. Pullback in the making with quite a number of gaps above and below to fill. Wild ride for the coming weeks is expected. Longer term support is below B-2.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
USD advantage to tag Y+1 turns into all out rally tagging Y+2. Y+1 then turned into support giving us another leg higer to Y+3. Closed the week above Y+3 and near week high.

Outlook
Strength in USD partly comes from ECB news and partly due to its safe haven status in time of instability. Up trend established on 4 hours. As long as B-0 / Y+2 acting as support there is no reason to go bearish on the pair, yet.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation around Y-1. In waiting mode for ECB’s actions this coming week. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
All week bear flag near Y-1 is bearish. Consolidation can continue with up drift potential back up to B+2 but it will likely cap the upside. Bear flag support broken will lead to a drop to B-2 and below.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Did not even test Y+1 and dropped back down to Y-1 as expected. Wild 2-way swings as mentioned last week. ES could not find support since Y-1 was broken. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
More downside is expected but not necessary directional drop. Potential hard squeeze back up to Y-1 / B-0 that can be followed by immediate sell off back down to B-1 and below. Not easy time for swing traders but definitely great day trading opportunities ahead.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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