- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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What resistance? NQ simply popped higher right from the start of the week and stayed above previous week close. Once Dow and S&P are ready, all 3 indices jumped higher. NQ was the star of them all. It pushed straight up to Y+3. Closed the week near Y+3 and week high.
NQ upside breakout was the result of just a handful of stocks only. Last time we see such narrow breadth rally back in year 2000 it did not end well. Notice that without longer term chart supporting the bears, there is no reason to fade this market yet.
Expecting a consolidation week with reduced range.
Popped higher right from the start of the week. Pullback found support at Y+1 / previous week close pointing to Y+2 target in play. Got Y+2 and consolidated around it since. Closed the week near Y+2 and week high.
Ninja unstable after tagging 102. On weekly basis ninja has completed its primary upside objective for now. Unless some fundamental event happens, ninja will have a difficult time going higher from here.
A pullback is due but not necessary until ninja is stretched a bit further. A spike high reversal against B+1 points to a more significant pullback to B-1 is likely.
As expected, Aussie dropped below B-1. Since then it has consolidated around 50% previous week range. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Until Aussie can stage a strong reversal rally back above B+1, it is likely to continue its down trend.
Mentioned in MBO newsletter the condition for gold to go higher. Once gold has its down trend broken, Aussie can rally back up higher.
As mentioned last week, strong support at Y-0 with more upside expected. Unfolded without surprise. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Aussie and Lonnie are both under the influence of gold heavily these 2 months, so pay attention to what happen in gold will give you clues what will happen next with these 2 pairs.
Above B+1, the long time favourite 1.08 will be in play again. Will not counter this up trend until 4 hours giving me a sell setup.
My favourite pair giving us the easiest play for the week again. Pullback back to Y-0 and found support. Took off higher all the way to Y+3. Closed the week near week high and above Y+2.
Weekly upside target tagged. Challenging monthly resistance here. First test probably will result in at least a pullback down to Y+1. Difficult to tell now if it is all cable has in store to the upside.
I need to see how cable react to a move above B+1 to determine if sellers are waiting up there.
Mentioned hands off this pair last week. It was a good decision. Euro managed to hold Y-0 and pushed higher since. Not only did it managed to clear Y+1, it also bounced off Y+1 as support to push higher again until end of week sellers stopped the move. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Euro has met its sellers at B+1. As long as euro cannot push above B+2 this week, a swing top will likely form. Once euro trading below B-0 and stays below, it will be forced to go back down to at least B-2.
Consolidation above Y+1 for several days opened the door to Y+2. Then Dow found an excuse and zoomed up there in 1 go. Tagging Y+2 led to a strong selloff back down. Closed the week above Y+1 and below midpoint.
Spike reversal late in the week was not confirmed with a close below Y+1 thus it is not bearish enough to signal the start of a significant pullback.
If B-0 acts as resistance and that B-1 is breached decisively, we should see a move back down to B-3.
Without a dramatic move like that, holiday mode continues and the light volume up drift bias will dominate the tape.
A weak version of what happened to Dow. 50% previous week range. Closed the week at Y+1 / previous week close and below midpoint.
If we are getting a spike reversal here for real, we need ES to close on daily basis below B-1 quickly. That will open the door to a flush back down to below B-3.
Without a strong down move to trigger more selling, I do not expect significant swings to happen this coming week as volume dry up during the holiday season.
NQ sold off in the beginning of the week as expected. It sold off back down to the crime scene where the short squeeze originally started. Since then NQ followed S&P to zoom back up higher. Closed the week at Y+1 and near week high.
As mentioned last week NQ is weaker structurally comparing to Dow and S&P. Since it is the momentum leader of the 3 indices. My conjecture of a longer term top building is partially confirmed.
As long as B+1 acting as resistance NQ will have a very hard time to go higher. Dropping back down to B-0 and below likely.
Beware that seasonal strength can limit the downside moves and exaggerate the upside ones.
Easiest play last week – just load it up at support mentioned last week and ninja smooth sailed to target Y+2. Closed the week at Y+2 and near week high.
Picture perfect continuation week came and now gone. A bit more tricky from here for ninja to go higher because Japanese government sort of promised the range of 98 to 102 being the preferred zone. If ninja tagging 102 quickly early this week I suspect BOJ will slow it down.
Chart pattern only as long as B-0 acting as support, more upside coming.
A forced rally early in the week due to the bull trap from gold tagged Y+2 but it did not last. The dirty bottom at Y-1 was retested as expected and blasted through. Aussie flushed down to Y-3. Closed the week near Y-3 and week low.
Just like gold itself, Aussie just cannot build a bottom in the middle of nowehre. More downside is expected.
Until Aussie can stage a bottom setup at B-1, not looking for long.
As mentioned last week, loonie depends on gold to hold it up. The moment gold breached its support, loonie collapsed spiking the pair up to Y+2. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.
B-0 / Y-0 very strong support zone. Until it is cleared, retest of B+1 likely and more upside is expected.
Consolidated below Y+1. Sellers failed to push cable lower. Breakout to the upside at the end. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.
Upside breakout confirmed. As long as Y+1 / B-0 acting as support, cable can go higher with B+2 target.
Euro did the whiplash move after FBO against the resistance zone mentioned last time. Euro dropped quickly but 1.34 round number somehow provided support. Euro drifted back up since. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Euro closed within the breakout range points to indecision. The resistance was rejected decisively. Euro should not be able to climb back up to the same zone so easily.
Hands off on this pair until I get a better picture this week.
Consolidation around Y+1 as expected until Fed minute released mid week. The quick sell off was met with aggressive buying. Closed the week above Y+1 and at week high.
The whole week was just an expanded consolidation. It used to take 3 weeks to clear a round number (e.g. 15000, 14000) level in Dow. Now, it took just 1 week + 1 day. This may catch many people by surprise leading to very explosive up moves.
I will turn swing level bearish only after B-0 / Y+1 is breached. That should be good for a move down to B-2.
S&P pullback was expected and pretty much landed and ended at the Y-0 support precisely. Since then S&P drifted back up to new high again. Closed the week above Y+1 and at week high.
The short play in the beginning of the week was easy but the bounce was more difficult to deal with. It is as if someone is in a rush to keep buying everything.
Chart pattern suggests a short term top in the making below B+2. Once the selloff starts, it is important to stay below B+1 to keep the short side in control.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2013 Dec 2 – 2013 Dec 6
2013 Nov 25 – 2013 Nov 29
2013 Nov 18 – 2013 Nov 22
2013 Nov 11 – 2013 Nov 15
2013 Nov 4 – 2013 Nov 8
2013 Oct 28 – 2013 Nov 1
2013 Oct 21 – 2013 Oct 25
2013 Oct 14 – 2013 Oct 18
2013 Oct 7 – 2013 Oct 11
2013 Sep 30 – 2013 Oct 4
2013 Sep 23 – 2013 Sep 27
2013 Sep 16 – 2013 Sep 20
2013 Sep 9 – 2013 Sep 13
2013 Sep 2 – 2013 Sep 6
2013 Aug 26 – 2013 Aug 30
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.