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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation week before Memorial holiday is the norm and we got exactly that last week. Tight range consolidation around Y+1. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Mild bearish reading in custom market breadth points to pullback on daily in the making. Once B-1 is breached, we can expect 100% expansion to the downside for which last week was extreme tight range.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation week with very thin volume. 50% previous week range bounded the activities. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Tight range week points to breakout mode in play. B+3 and B-3 are the targets. B-3 aligned with the open gap below is a strong magnet. See comments on Dow regarding the market breadth readings.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
4 Hour down channel break. Weekly bull flag breakout. Tagged and cleared weekly resistance. Closed the week above Y+2 and near week high.

Outlook
The breakout momentum points to more upside. Consolidation around B+1 potential if ninja fails to clear Y+3 early in the week.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Pullback to support zone mentioned last week as expected. Attempt to bounce back up failed to clear 1.57 weekly resistance. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside down week with midpoints near each other is mildly bearish. It points to test of Y-1 likely. A break of Y-1 points to gap fill of the open gap below which also ends the cable weekly up trend.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of last week. 3 pushes up pattern mentioned last week sent Euro straight back down to my target. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Euro weekly pullback over, back to trend sell on daily. Y-0 / B-0 now strong resistance.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
FBO scenario played out. Easy drop to target by the end of the week. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
Daily up trend ended with FBO on weekly high is very bearish. This also signal a problem with gold. Consolidation after a move like this is likely with more downside expected.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bullish expectations played out and upside breakout normal target of Y+2 was tagged. Momentum strong enough sending price higher with former resistance acting as support. Closed the week above Y+2 and near week high.

Outlook
More upside is expected. Consolidation will keep price holding around B+1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Tight range consolidation all week even though US dollar has strengthen across the board last week. Good example of low participation translate into meaningless price movements on higher timeframes. Closed the week above Y+1 and near midpoint.

Outlook
See Dow comments for overall expectations. Premium members please read the newsletter special update.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Down channel resistance early in the week pressed price down to Y-0 and opened the door to Y-1. Y-1 tested mid week and held. Closed the week below Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
FBO against Y-1 on daily. Potential run to B+1 and Y+1 as long as Y-1 acting as support.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Monday weak close and then gapped down to open gap below. Bounced off at once. Y-0 support led to a squeeze back up to Y+1. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Weakest of the 3 major indices. Rising wedge like formation. B+1 resistance can send this back down to B-0 / Y-0 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dropped to Y-1 as expected. Bounced back immediately. Y-0 resistance stopped the bounce. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
4 Hour down channel established. Until break out of the structure, ninja will follow the channel play script.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y+1 acted as resistance sending Dow back down to the open gap below. Once tagged, Dow bounced back quickly and held the 18000 round number. News shock sent Dow higher clearing Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Dow in a complex rising wedge structure that can easily snap back down to B-0 and below if Y+1 fails to act as support.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
B-0 quickly turned into support and sent euro up above Y+1. 100% absolute range expansion stopped the move. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Euro 4 hour and daily is in a form of 3 pushes up. Once Y+1 turning into resistance euro will likely correct back down to below Y-1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Cable holding previous week close early in the week started a breakout until 100% absolute range expansion is reached. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.

Outlook
This last push higher clearing 1.56 was a major stop run. This makes the rally unstable and a pullback to B-0 / Y+1 is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
2 weekly down trend resistance breakout gave us a run to 2 week high and in turn stops are found and sent Aussie to Y+2. Strong reaction at Y+2 sent Aussie back down to Y+1.

Outlook
Potential FBO in place if Aussie cannot hold above Y+1, with Y-1 target. As long as Y+1 holds, one more attempt to push higher likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES failed to clear Friday high and was forced back down to fill the open gap below. Gap filled and ES immediately push back up. Y-0 support gave ES fuel to charge higher and tagged Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Complex legs leading to just touch of year high is bearish. Can lead to significant selloff.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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