- Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
- Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
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Last week’s warning materialized. Dow collapsed as there is no buyers left at the current level. The buyers showed up below Y-2 could not offset the weekly STOPD resistance. 200% range expansion to the downside. Closed the week near Y-4 and week low.
Critical weekly support below. Monday / Tusday spike reversal above B-1 will produce another temporary bottom with above Y-3 target.
Any attempt to rally, as long as B-0 is not cleared, are considered counter-trend and not likely to last.
Bullish scenario unfolded. Held Y-0, gave us Y+2 and no pullback since as gold strengthen at the same time. Aussie could not stop going higher until 200% range expansion. Stalled immediately back to midpoint. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.
The tension build up in Ukraine is a surprise to many hence the rush to gold and the metal currencies. Luckily they still followed the breakout rules closely.
Monday/Tuesday is critical whether Aussie will establish a swing top or bottom for the week. Swing bottom will allow Aussie to clear B+1 and run for B+2. Swing top means a drop back down to Y+1 likely.
Support at Y-1 worked out, gave us Y+1 and more. 200% range expansion like Aussie. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Although the rally was a product of stop run, the 2nd pop last week gave the bulls a strong support zone at Y+1 / B-0. As long as that holds, cable will challenge Y+3 again.
First half of the week showing signs of reduced range and consolidation behaviour. Then the spike up to challenge Y-0 failed, led to all out melt down. NQ could not find support until Y-2 was reached due to the dip buyers being trapped. Closed the week below Y-2 and near week low.
NQ has no real support below the current price level until another 100 points below. If bulls want to see current year high later this year, they need to support the current level and force a bottom here.
A flush low in the beginning of the week followed by spike reversal back above Y-2 points to a run back up to B-0.
It is possible to get a melt down to B-2 quickly Monday should massive stop run is induced.
Ninja moved lower as expected. What I did not expect, however, was the all out melt down. Got Y-3 before ninja can even bounce. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.
Partially event driven, but this pullback is mostly expected due to the daily level overbought condition.
Ninja needs to absorb the drop hence consolidation likely with reduced range.
As expected, more downside. Y-0 resistance sent this down to almost Y-3. Resistance trend line break gave us a bear flag / up channel back up above Y-1. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.
Potential long term bottom in the making. First, we need to see B-1 acting as support from retest though.
Short term resistance B+1.
Y-0 cleared from below, gave us reason to go long and Y+1 was cleared with minimal effort. Y+2 normal target reached. Closed the week below Y+2 and above midpoint.
Strange rally as usual caused by actions from ECB and EU. The 3 pushes down pattern on daily already gave us a hint that this can happen.
Euro back to long term resistance 1.390 to 1.400. Will be difficult to tell if it is going to hold euro down this time.
Short term resistance at B+1 will give us a pullback to Y+1 / B-0 area.
First thing first, ES slided down to my target Y-2. Support was found and ES started to drift higher. At 100% range expansion, ES could no longer sustain itself and collapsed back down and printed Y-3 downside target. Closed the week below Y-3 and near week low.
ES got its measured move target last week. This does not imply it can start to bounce now. The bearish closing points to more downside is expected. Only until ES can form a bottom on daily and clear B-0 decisively that the daily downtrend is challenged.
Bearish bias with expectation of increase in volatility later in the week.
Consolidation with pullback to target mentioned last week. No real action until end of week tension increased between US and Russia. Closed the week near Y+1 and B+1.
Above B+1 we get B+2, that requires gold to strengthen though.
The more interesting setup is that Aussie breaking B-1 decisively, a drop to B-3 likely.
Consolidation at 50% previous week range as expected. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
The end of week breakdown is normal for consolidation at Y-1. It is not a good predictor of direction. A quick reversal from a mild breach of B-1 back up to above B-0 will trigger a run to Y-0 / B+2.
As long as that has not happened yet, more down side to B-2 is likely.
Euro went lower as expected. Strong reaction several times to stop the drop yet not able to change the course. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Critical week with euro sitting right above longer term support. Longer term resistance Y-0 to Y+1 will be difficult to break. That staged a potential fight back up to Y+1 / B+2.
As long as euro stays below B-0 / Y-0, more downside is expected. Once this zone is cleared, euro has a good chance to rally to Y+1.
Bear flag on daily successfully sent Dow up to year high and tagged the channel top. Since then Dow collapsed quickly with no pullback at all. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.
Potential weekly FBO year high, FBO previous month high and FBO previous week high. Big warning sign that Dow needs to find suckers to buy at the current price level.
Channel support right below B-1 / open gap zone. If Dow can hold the support, moving back up to Y+1 / B-0 likely.
NQ never traded lower to test B-1, forming a dirty bottom and squeeze higher. This led to weaknesses at Y+1 and double top. Once the selloff started it can no longer contain the weaknesses and flushed back down to Y-1 to take care of the unfinished business. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.
Outside week with same midpoint and closed below previous week range. Potential strong bearish setup if the week starts with much lower prices which will then turning Y-1 / B-1 into resistance zone for more downside actions.
A recovering back above Y-1 early in the week will lead to consolidation actions at reduced range.
Moved higher as expected. Target of above Y+2 reached and a rounding top was formed. End of week selloff brought ninja back down. Closed the week above Y+1 and below midpoint.
104 resistance held ninja down right on schedule. As long as 104 is not challenged again, we should see Y+1 and B-1 first.
Got the pullback as expected. Not much else to play with since. Closed the week near Y-0 and B-1.
2 weeks in a row with midpoint around same price level and then a close back to the same level last week tells us how important this price level is.
I need this zone (B-1 / Y-0) to act as support before I commit to the long side for a run to B+1 again which has a better odds in happening.
ES opened above Y-0 gave us the necessary excuse to challenge Y+2 as mentioned last week. Y+2 tagged leading to a pullback to previous resistance. A blowoff top late in the week gave us an all out selloff back down to a new low for the week. Closed the week below Y+1 and near week low.
FBO year high, FBO previous month high and weekly reversal. As long as B-0 acting as resistance, ES has several downside targets to take care of. Closest one is B-2.
Quick Access to Weekly Outlook Over Last 3 Months
2014 Apr 14 – 2014 Apr 18
2014 Apr 7 – 2014 Apr 11
2014 Mar 31 – 2014 Apr 4
2014 Mar 24 – 2014 Mar 28
2014 Mar 17 – 2014 Mar 21
2014 Mar 10 – 2014 Mar 14
2014 Mar 3 – 2014 Mar 7
2014 Feb 24 – 2014 Feb 28
2014 Feb 17 – 2014 Feb 21
2014 Feb 10 – 2014 Feb 14
2014 Feb 3 – 2014 Feb 7
2014 Jan 27 – 2014 Jan 31
2014 Jan 20 – 2014 Jan 24
2014 Jan 13 – 2014 Jan 17
2013 Jan 7 – 2013 Jan 11
Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,
- Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
- Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
- Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
- Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
- Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines
The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,
- The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
- The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.
Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.
Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.