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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Trend line break play worked out with ninja dropped to almost Y-3. Strong reaction right after taking ninja back up to exactly where the breakdown started. Closed the week near Y-2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Wide range week and daily up trend broken points to consolidation play this week. 50% of previous week range is expected.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Reversal expectation played out. Euro rejected Y-1 and zoomed above Y+1 right after FOMC announcement. Strong reaction above Y+1. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Although euro snapped out of its down trend, it still has to deal with trapped long from above 1.09. This means even though a short term bottom is in place, there is still likely shake out move pressing euro back down to below Y-0 or even retesting Y-1 before Euro can go higher.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As I pointed out last week, even though Dow is clearly in a pullback correction phase, it will not be an orderly environment. Well, it materialized last week. FOMC announcement produced a squeeze so strong that all losses from the week prior were wiped out in 30 minutes. Yet, Dow failed to push much higher and stalled once 100% range expansion is reached. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Dow price pattern suggested that it has more wild swings to deal with this coming week. Consolidation between B+1 and B-0 likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Cable reversed its down trend from exactly the level I mentioned last week and zoomed to Y+1. Very strong reaction to Y+1 bringing cable back down to Y-1. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Short term low in place but not in daily up trend yet. This implies consolidation with messy swings inside this week’s range.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ zoomed higher to Y-0 and held there for the FOMC announcement. That alone opened the door to Y+1. Post announcement, NQ immediately tagged the target and by op-ex Friday it zoomed to 100% range expansion target. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation likely as the market shock has left too many pockets below. An orderly pullback will give us a drop back down to B-0, say, over the course of a week. If the wide moves continue, we may see price jumps back down to Y-0 through gaps again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Aussie followed its peers broken the daily down trend against USD. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
To start a new up trend on daily against US dollar, Aussie needs Y-0 to act as support and take out B+1 in coming 2 weeks.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Loonie reacted the same way like the other majors to the FOMC announcement last week. Break down from the daily up trend tagged normal sell off target of Y-2. Strong reaction to Y-2. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week and closing below Y-1 is bearish. Short term top in place with sideway actions expected as weekly up trend is still intact.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
My short term low in place expectation proven to be correct. ES rushed back up above Y-0 since the beginning of the week and consolidated around it. FOMC announcement took ES straight up above Y+1 and eventually Y+2. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Wide range week with gaps everywhere again. Consolidation may take ES back down to B-0 first. If this coming week is proven a weak consolidation, we cannot rule out ES dropping all the way back down to B-1 eventually.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dow moved back to 18000 before its wild swings lower. All week gaps not filled and price actions going wild. Closed the week above Y-2 and below midpoint.

Outlook
As explained in my newsletter for premium members, a correction is expected to start from the beginning of March and can last 1 to 2 months. The correction is now underway and it will not be an orderly environment.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES flushed down to Y-2 instead of holding above, that set the stage for strong resistance at Y-1 and more downside. 100% absolute range expansion stopped the drop. Closed the week above Y-2 and below midpoint.

Outlook
A temporary low could be in place for a consolidation week. Gaps everywhere means wild price swings is expected to continue.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Cable failed to hold Y-1 as expected and dropped to the target zone mentioned last week. It failed to bounce above Y-1, hence the down trend continued until 100% absolute range expansion was reached. Closed the week below Y-2 and near week low.

Outlook
Similar to last week, cable will have a chance to stop its fall if it can make a snap back from the next target zone. This time it will be Y-3 and above Y-4. A spike low from there will allow cable to consolidate around B-1 and the potential to drift back up to B-0.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
The march towards 1.28 was realized last week. Very strong reactions there with rumours that central banks intervened. But Y+1 acted as support leading to another rush to 1.28. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Monthly level multiple year high are not easily cleared or rejected in a week or two. It is a process of struggle among all participants. If Loonie continues to hang in this zone in coming few weeks, it is a sign that the zone is accepted with more upside coming.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Euro did not even reaction to the old time 1.08 level as the selling entered panic mode. 100% absolute range expansion was the only thing that provided the first bounce in the week. Euro failed to clear Y-2 and dropped again. Closed the week below Y-2 and near week low.

Outlook
The waterfall effect is in full force – notice the speed of drop has doubled every week. Last week it took 1/2 the time to travel the same distance as in the week before. This points to “singularity event” coming week where there could be a final showdown before Wednesday. V-shape reversal of this move will give us the short term bottom for Euro in coming 1 to 2 months.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Ninja was so strong, it pushed to 122 first in the beginning of the week setting up Y+1 as the consolidation midpoint. Closed the week near Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
A strong up trend is established with clear support line in place. Breaking below 121 decisively points to Y-0 and B-2 in play. This is normal reaction to the push higher on weekly and monthly, not the marking of a top.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Beautiful drop from the head and shoulder neckline to the target in 1 go. Eventually stopped at 100% range expansion and bounced. Closed the week near Y-2 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Down trend established on daily. Until Aussie can reverse the trend Y-1 / B+1 strong resistance with more down side.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Started the week with bear flag and broken down to Y-2 quickly. That triggered waterfall effect to drop lower as there was no support nearby as explained last week. Y-3 / 4300 round number produced the first bounce but too weak to hold up. Closed the week near Y-3 and below midpoint.

Outlook
B-1 acting as support or FBO against it early in the week will give NQ an excuse to zoom higher to B-0.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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