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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Normal scenario unfolder. Y-0 acted as support with Y+1 not acting as resistance. Paved way to Y+2 and materialized later in the week. Closed the week above Y+2 and near week high.

Outlook
Up channel in place making it hard to go much higher until some form of pullback happens. FBO against B+1 will send this back down to below B-0 easily.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Rejected Y-1 early in the week provided fuel for Euro to challenge Y+1. Stopped at 100% absolute range expansion. Y-0 acted as support on pullback. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Y+1 / B+1 strong resistance zone. As explained last week, if Euro jumped above Y+1, a squeeze will take Euro back up to mid 1.27s. If Euro consolidates around Y+1 / B+1, another flush below B-1 is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ followed the seasonal selloff script to the T. Y-3 acted as support twice before being breached on the 3rd try. Closed the week below Y-3 and at week low.

Outlook
The backfill is necessary as NQ has been rallying for months with no support zone built anywhere below. This selloff helps NQ to correct some of its short term breadth overbought conditions. Seasonally the stock market will now enter holiday mode with minimal volume which favours the bulls.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected the exhaustion run led to a strong pullback. Y-0 did not act as support and led to all out sell off back down to Y-1. Y-1 was breached and support was discovered right below. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Outside week down close. Bearish but that Japan election over the weekend will shape ninja’s short term direction. We need to see what happens Sunday night to figure out if Abe’s majority is bullish or bearish for ninja.

Pure chart pattern suggests that B-0 / Y-0 is now strong resistance with retest of B-1 and below likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Aussie moved under Y-1 as expected and attempts to pop it higher was seen without touching Y-2. Yet there was no strength to push Assuie higher to clear the Y-0 resistance. Consolidation around week open in tight range. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Consolidation after strong selling points to continuation to the downside. Until B+1 is cleared we do not have a case for bottom. Next target B-2 to the downside is likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
FBO against Y-1 early in the week sent cable back up to 100% absolute range expansion. Stalled from there since. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Signs of a bottom in the making. However, cable may have to retest B-0 and near Y-1 first to form a proper bottom.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As stated in my newsletter to my premium members, an average of 2% drop is expected in December before year end rally can happen. And here we are, having the quick flush down to Y-4 right on schedule. Closed the week below Y-4 and at week low.

Outlook
Monday’s reaction to the Friday low will determine if the short term bottom is in place. B-1 holds B-0 will be in play this week. Premium members already know what the bias is.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Seasonal sell worked out beautifully cleaning out the late buyers over the past few weeks. Closed the week below Y-4 and at week low.

Outlook
Seasonal bias to the downside is used up. Option expiration this week will keep the volatility higher than usual.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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