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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation week. Centered around open in 50% previous week range. Found support at previous week close. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Overbought by time. A pullback is due. Not necessary something major, just a quick drop back to Y-0 and then wait and see.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of the week. Held support, run to target mentioned last week and stalled. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
B-0 acting as support we get retest of B+1. Y+1 resistance breaking B-0 will give a retest of B-1. Still waiting for gold for direction.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Gapped below 1.32 and never made it back above. End of week dumping led to normal target Y-2. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.

Outlook
More down side expected. Consolidation week after range expansion week ended up closing at the low is bearish.

Potential short term bottom between Y-3 to B-2 could be formed if euro flushes down there quickly and snap back up. A bottom in that zone points to B+1 and above likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation around the closing price as expected. It is within the 100% range of the week before last too. Closed the week below Y-1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
The range matching that of the one before the breakout points to strong continuation potential. Should euro bounces, ninja is the exit point of the international money flow which points to much higher price level quickly. 1.06 is next stop on weekly.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Rallied 1st to Y+1 without testing Y-0 set the stage for FBO back down to Y-1. Y-1 cleared with no resistance at all. Landed at Y-2 normal downside target. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
First crack of the bull move on daily. Weekly up trend is not damaged yet. Wide range week points to consolidation with B-0 to Y-0 strong resistance zone.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Cable tried to bottom yet not producing a strong reaction at Y-1 to go higher. Instead, it is trapped below the 1.66 key price level mentioned last week. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
A ledge after strong selloff is bearish. A retest of B-1 and below is likely. Until B+1 is cleared we cannot be sure the daily down leg is over.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation as expected. Centered around Y+1 instead of previous week close as Dow gapped up to Y+1 at the start of the week. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Pure price pattern is bullish as consolidation week with a close above wide range week is bullish. That being said, B+1 is strong resistance, as long as it is acting as resistance we cannot rule out a drop back down to Y-0.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Similar to Dow, ES was having its consolidation week. Traded equal distance from its open. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
B+1 resistance points to at least retest of B-1 and likely below B-2. It is not necessary an important top, just that the price distribution needs some re-balance before ES can decide which way to go.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Upside breakout. Clean sail to Y+3 normal breakout target. Did not stop there at all. Finished the run after tagged Y+5. Closed the week above Y+4 and midpoint.

Outlook
As usual retail traders are wrong. All kinds of opinions saying how bad the US economy is yet failed to recognize that the chart says breakout mode.

Normal breakout run gives us on average 200% previous week range. We got 300% this time. Consolidation likely around the closing price.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Easy play of the week. Y-0 cleared, back to target swing high. Pull back to midpoint since. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
No strong directional bias at this point. B-0 holds we get a run to B+1 and likely B+2. B-0 fails to hold this up we get Y-1 again.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Clean break of Y-1 instead of FBO. That set the stage to a run down to Y-3. Y-3 tagged and gave us a bounce. Y-2 acted as resistance and sent euro down to almost Y-4. Closed the week below Y-3 and near week low.

Outlook
Warned for weeks that euro wants 1.32 and it is finally there. 1.32 is important in multiple higher timeframes. A definitive bottom on daily at this level will send euro back up to 1.35 or higher.

As long as that has not happened yet, all bounces are just pullbacks will the potential of euro breaking down to 1.30 and below.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Instead of sharp bounce to Y-0 resistance, we got a gap open in the beginning of the week. No strength to challenge Y-0 at all. Continuation selloff sent cable down to target / Y-2. Stuck there since. Closed the week near Y-2 and week low.

Outlook
Important higher timeframe support can produce a bounce back up to B+1. FBO against B-1 that quickly jump back above 1.66 will be the sign.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
The other easy play of the week. Bear flag broken, sending Aussie straight down to target and bounced. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Support tested and rejected decisively. The other end, above B+1 to Y+2 is in play. Until Y+2 is cleared and that B+1 is acting as support, Aussie is simply buying time and waiting for gold to give it a direction.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
No test of Y-0 was possible as NQ gap above Y+1 to start the week. Gap and go sent NQ above Y+2. Closed the week near Y+2 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Unusual circumstances led to the continuous up drift which will not last. The question is how much time is needed to absorb this run higher. Any weaknesses will give NQ an excuse to pullback to below Y+1 / B-1, where the open gap is.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Continuous sell pattern broken when Dow gapped at Y+1 and zoomed higher. Unlikely breakout gave us Y+3 target. Dow got the target and went sideway since. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.

Outlook
The breakout was the result of false rumours on the current situation at Ukraine. An interesting imbalance is now created at Y+1 / B-1 that has to be resolved in coming 2 weeks.

B+1 / Y+3 acting as resistance will send Dow back down to B-0. Normal scenario we get a consolidation week trapped between B-0 to B+1.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
No selloff materialized as the gap and go play took over. Unlike Dow still trading below its all time high, ES has been pushing a new one this week hence the resistance it was facing below Y+3. Closed the week above Y+2 and midpoint.

Outlook
Another ATH play. If ES fails to close above the original high printed last month, we have a FBO in place for a serious pullback.

Normal expectation is that ES will trade in 50% range around the previous week close.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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