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Weekly Outlook

  • Charts on selected symbols with STOPD Levels are posted
  • Recap and outlook commentaries are added to some posts as demonstration of applying STOPD in actively traded markets
  • Share charts and screenshots in discussion
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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As mentioned last week cable was not strong enough to produce a bullish close hence it has to deal with a pullback first. We got the pullback after the rising wedge was broken to the down side. Y-0 tagged and acted as support. Closed the week above Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Another week attempting to pusher higher yet failed to produce a strong close. This is a clear sign of weakness. Until Y+1 / B-0 turning into support, cable will likely be forced into dumping below B-1.

Should the weekly down trend resumes, B-3 is the next down side target.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
NQ was the bullish one with hint for a run to Y+1 off its Monday action holding Y-0. Then PPT came overnight giving the indices a helping hand to clear Y+1 which led to a squeeze to Y+2. From there all out panic buying was induced. Closed the week above Y+2 and at week high.

Outlook
See comments on Dow why it is important to force the indices higher as much as possible last week.

Rising wedge setup with downside target B-0 / Y+1. Open gaps left behind is a sign of exhaustion implies short term top and often very long term top is in the making.

If NQ starts to pullback, it has to hold the Y+1 / B-0 zone to fend off another round the selling or it can drop all the way back down to Y-1 which effectively will kill the chance for a year-end rally.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Aussie tried to push higher can failed due to the obvious weaknesses mentioned last week. Ended up another consolidation week with tight range. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
2nd inside week. Compression points to significant breakout in play. Notice strong compression leads to potential whiplash action implying both Y+1 and Y-1 will be tagged.

Upside breakout target is B+3. Downside breakout target is B-3.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Bear flag on 4 hours broken to the down side gave us a nice drop to Y-0. Y-0 support led to a run for week high and then breakout clearing Y+1. Original bear flag turns into measured move. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Measured move so far is just a bigger bear flag on daily. Until ninja properly form a bottom it is not as bullish as many suggested. A drop back down to B-0 is likely. A break down to B-1 is also likely.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Hands off recommendation was spot on. Consolidation in tight range between Y-0 and Y-1. Closed the week below Y-0 and near midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week tight range and close near midpoint is indecision. Breakout mode in effect. Levelling off Y-1, however, gives the long side a slight edge over the short side in case of breakout.

Upside breakout of B+1 points to Y+1 and above. Downside breakout below Y-1 points to B-2 and below.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As expected euro is too weak to hold onto its gains. Flushed back down to Y-1 and stuck there. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
4 Hour bear flag in place. Y-0 / B-0 strong resistance above. A drop to B-2 is likely if euro breaks B-1 without tagging B-0 first.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
The magic of intervention took Dow back up to where the waterfall selloff started. Leaving behind 3 huge open gaps with the strongest single leg bounce on daily in the history of the US stock market after a 10% correction.

Outlook
Why Fed panic is the question we have to ask ourselves. The answer is that weaknesses often lead to more weaknesses. Normal selling can lead to panic selling. Monday is last day of Fed’s POMO and last 2 QE did not end well at all for the stock market. Hence the US stock market is not allowed to trade even near the bottom area of the correction.

The rising wedge on Dow points to a break down to the start of the wedge which can be either 16300 or 16000. Given the way PPT working so hard, I’ll say 16300 will have strong support.

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
ES simply gapped through the Y+1 resistance mentioned last week. Signature PPT activities detected overnight there. The gap thru led to a strong squeeze up to the crime scene before the waterfall drop into Y-1. Pullback found support at 1920 led to another squeeze to Y+2. Closed the week above Y+2 and at week high.

Outlook
Rising wedge is bearish with downside target B-0 and below. Upside is limited due to longer term holders of equity are unloading heavily. Until ES can prove that it can hold B-0 this week and absorb all the short term sellers, weekly bearish trend is intact and this should be treated as counter-trend up move only.

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Each symbol has its weekly STOPD levels drawn on the chart,

  • Thick blue lines show the range of the week they are drawn on
  • Thin blue lines are the midpoint of the weeks
  • Thick orange lines are 100% expansion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin orange lines are the midpoints between thick orange lines and the thick blue lines
  • Thick red lines are 200% exapnsion levels away from the range of the week
  • Thin red lines are midpoints between the thick red lines and the thick orange lines

The last 2 weeks on each chart has the weekly STOPD levels labelled,

  • The week just finished has its labels in blue. B-0 is the midpoint of the week. B+1 is the high of the week. B-1 is the low of the week. B-2 is the 50% downside expansion of the week.
  • The prior week has its labels in yellow. Y-0 is the midpoint of that week. Y+1 is the high of the week and so forth.



Following is an example chart showing the forex pair USDJPY in 4-hour resolution.




Related research and articles on using STOPD weekly price levels.


Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


British Pound Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes


More research articles available in our Latest Articles section.



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