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We Have Seen This Stock Market Environment Before

2017 Feb 24 Fri 12:00:26 | by Lawrence

The following chart shows the weekly bars of Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since the beginning of 2016. Many people questioned how come we have never seen this before. In fact, there is no match from historical data to the way how these markets performing lately.

image

But, there is indeed a near perfect match. Here is the weekly chart to prove it.

image

Everything, including the way weekly volatility behaved, is matching.

People cannot find this because they have not looked hard enough.

This chart is the weekly chart for year 2008-2009, upside down. Let’s look at it again, normally.

image

The red line marks where we are right now in terms of trading weeks into the year.

Even if the timing is off by a few months, meaning that 2017 February so far should be matched with the swing low in November 2008, an important top is still very much going to happen no later than this July.

Time to be ready.

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Bitcoin: The Best Performing Investment of the Year

2016 Dec 29 Thu 2:37:47 | by Lawrence

Here is the weekly Bitcoin chart in US dollars.

image

This virtual currency, or whatever asset class you want to name it, it is definitely one of the best investment ideas for year 2016.

It follows STOPD and chart patterns all its way and here we are, the projected upside target is in sight based on the range of year 2015.

How funny people are saying that it would simply crash and disappear?

As I explained before, the value of a “currency” depends on its acceptance. Since bitcoin is accepted worldwide, it has already gained a position that the currencies of small countries can be compared to.

Is this pure speculation? Maybe. If you look at the hidden premium like the value of US dollar or Euro, there is no difference there either.

Since Bitcoin has finally reached its primary target of 900, it will be a difficult path ahead for it to make further gain going into year 2017.

One thing I am sure about though, is that Bitcoin will continue to behave in a way we can understand through the lens of STOPD and classic chart reading techniques.

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Review of Forecast for Nov 21, 2016


Thanksgiving week led to updrift all week. Volatility spike did not materialized. Slingshot move not enough time to unfold due to shorten trading hours. The breadth analog model did nothing last week.

Forecast Starting Nov 28, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Nov 23, 2016:
  • Volatility spike expected this week
  • Breadth based slingshot move in the making
  • 1.5% drop points to 2.5% drop in play with 5% steep correction potential within 2 weeks

For timely update including real-time trading signals and analysis join us today.

Report Snapshot


custom_market_breadth_20161123

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now

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2016 Nov 19
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Nov 21, 2016

Review of Forecast for Nov 14, 2016 Monday held up at previous week close as support and slow drift higher since. More upside expectation worked out with previous week higher challenged. No 1.5% drop so a slide to 2.5% did not materialize. The bre ...

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2016 Nov 18
Emini S&P Battleplan Nov 18, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2176.50 to 2186.75 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2181.50 Previous Month High 2163.50   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Nov 17
Emini S&P Battleplan Nov 17, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2171.75 to 2178.00 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2175.00 Previous Month High 2163.50   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Nov 16
Emini S&P Battleplan Nov 16, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2169.00 to 2185.00 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2177.00 Previous Month High 2163.50   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Nov 15
Emini S&P Battleplan Nov 15, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2158.50 to 2169.75 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2164.00 Previous Month High 2163.50   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Nov 14
Emini S&P Battleplan Nov 14, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2158.00 to 2174.50 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2166.25 Previous Month High 2163.50   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Nov 13
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Nov 14, 2016

Review of Forecast for Nov 7, 2016 Monday gap up and go as forecasted that a bounce is due on Monday. By Tuesday the up push was more than 1.5% and terminated the down trend. Overnight election results dropped 5% across the major indices and led t ...

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