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Review of Forecast for Aug 15, 2016


No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Slingshot move materialized. Longer term breadth sell setups happened but resulted in minimal downside actions only. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.

Forecast Starting Aug 22, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 19, 2016:
  • Breakout setup for 2% or more swing this week in either direction with bias for both directions and another week of potential slingshot play
  • 1% move in one direction will likely give us 2% in same direction
  • Short term breadth in sell mode while longer term ones being consumed / neutralized

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Report Snapshot


custom_market_breadth_20160819

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 19, 2016

2016 Aug 19 Fri 9:13:18 | by Lawrence

Overview

Emini overnight range 2175.25 to 2184.50 (at 9:00 am)

Overnight Midpoint 2180.00

Previous Week Close 2180.00

 

Battleplan for the Day

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Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 18, 2016

2016 Aug 18 Thu 9:07:08 | by Lawrence

Overview

Emini overnight range 2176.25 to 2182.75 (at 9:00 am)

Overnight Midpoint 2179.50

Previous Week Close 2180.00

 

Battleplan for the Day

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2016 Aug 17
Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 17, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2173.50 to 2181.00 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2177.25 Previous Week Close 2180.00   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Aug 16
Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 16, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2180.25 to 2187.00 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2183.50 Previous Week Close 2180.00   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Aug 15
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Aug 15, 2016

Review of Forecast for Aug 8, 2016 No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Longer term breadth sell setups developing but not confirmed yet. Upside bias worked out. The breadth analog model d ...

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2016 Aug 15
Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 15, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2180.00 to 2185.75 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2183.00 Previous Week Close 2180.00   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Aug 11
Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 11, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2170.00 to 2179.00 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2174.00 Previous Week Close 2177.75   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Aug 10
Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 10, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2174.50 to 2181.50 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2178.00 Previous Week Close 2177.75   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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2016 Aug 9
Emini S&P Battleplan Aug 9, 2016  premium content

Overview Emini overnight range 2174.50 to 2179.00 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2176.75 Previous Week Close 2177.75   Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below) See the chart below for key price zon ...

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