The Lawrence Chan Blog

I have diverse interest in many things from science and technology to martial arts and ancient health practices. Obviously, discussion of these topics should be done within my own blog as oppose to keeping them here. Hence my blog is created so that I can have a venue to express my creativity and thoughts on my other interests. For those of you who share similar interests, you can check out my site TheLawrenceChan.com

Due to the sheer volume of articles I have written about trading, many of which are trading related yet not technically in line with what DaytradingBias.com is offering, they have to be split from my blog into yet another site. Hence for my non-technical writings about trading, videos I have curated from various sources that I think are useful for traders and my reviews of trading related products, you can find them at the site Essence of Trading

The reason why I picked the Tai Chi picture above for this page is best explained by my article Tai Chi Traders in a World of Chaos at Essence of Trading.

Below are the old blog posts that were originally posted here. To avoid broken links from other sites, I have decided to keep them here.



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Linda Raschke: How a Pro Starts the Trading Day

2013 Nov 4 Mon 20:50:16 | by Lawrence

An old video produced by the MoneyShow.com. Simple yet very good advices for trading newcomers.

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Historical Data Bank Ready

2013 Nov 3 Sun 9:45:40 | by Lawrence

We’ve made some changes to the beta and the Historical Data Bank is now ready officially.

High resolution index data are added in this update.

Next step for the project is to upload the market breadth data files (both broad based ones and customized ones).

We are learning how to upload and deliver large data files efficiently so if you encounter any problem let us know.

Updated with link to Press Release on Dec 18, 2013: http://www.prlog.org/12258186-daytradingbiascom-launches-historical-data-bank-service.html

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One Chart That Gold Bugs Do Not Want You To See

2013 Nov 2 Sat 13:40:34 | by Lawrence

GLD’s net asset value in ounces has been dropping non-stop. As of October 30th 2013, it just made another new low print for the year. Notice that the surge in NAV in ounces has happened before every major rally in GLD and gold. Until we see evidence that GLD has its NAV settle down, it will be very difficult for gold to run much higher. The last leg up in gold price from $1600 to $1900 did not happen with increase in NAV in ounce. We all know what happened since – it turned out to be the finally top for the mega gold rally.

image

Classic market crashes take down all those who bought their papers with the others at speculative price levels. From the chart, we can see that the NAV in ounces surged the most after crossing the 25 million ounces level back in end of 2008 / the beginning of 2009. I think we have to wait until the NAV in ounces dropping down to the 25 million level again before gold price will find a decent bottom.

Remember that gold price itself may not need to drop as much as the NAV. It is all about cleaning out the ones who speculate beyond their means.

2 comments


Sunspot, Earthquake and Your Communication Equipment

2013 Nov 1 Fri 18:48:33 | by Lawrence

Magnificent_CME_Erupts_on_the_Sun_-_August_31_NASAEarlier this year NASA warned that solar flares and CME (coronal mass ejection) could be a problem starting summer. It turned out to be a quiet non-event summer with not much activities recorded. Well, our Sun obvious is a trickster and has just gear up to blast Earth with its solar flares this week.

The main sunspot causing all the latest very strong solar flares is going to turn away from Earth in about a week or two. If some of our satellite equipment on the sky are hit by strong solar flares they may be disabled for good. It has happened before so it can happen again.

Main issue with very strong solar flares (X class) is that they can also affect our communication on the ground indirectly due to its disruptive nature on magnetic fields. Most noticeable some internet connections depending on wireless cellphone network will be troubled. If you trade with wireless networks, be ready to switch to direct connections should this happens to your area.

Earthquakes and sunspots relationship has been a controversy subject for a long time. I am not saying there is a causation relationship between the two here (as I am no expert in those fields). I am just saying that there could be a coincidental relationship due to similar cycle length in solar activities (well known 11-year sunspot activity cycle) and Earth’s own seismic movement / pressure cycle (there may not be one). So far there are 10 earthquakes at 6.0 and above in Richter scale happening during this spike up in solar activity. That is way beyond normal, seasonally speaking.

Hopeful the earthquakes will stop soon.

Stay safe and good luck.

Notes: Feature image comes from Wikipedia. You can find it in the page on solar flare. It is a beautiful picture capturing a CME happened in August 2012 by NASA.

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Here is an update to my post on GE back in Jun 2013.

image

GE is now challenging its long term channel top.

Unlike the major indices keep pushing higher, GE is still struggling at the bottom of its range.

GE is telling us that the US stock market is facing its biggest fight for survival right now.

We will find out which side is going to win very soon.

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2013 Oct 28
WTF Chart of the Day: What The Beep Is Going On With S&P 500

Following is the chart of S&P 500 Emini future 15-minute chart, regular trading session only since Oct 23, 2013. Many traders are scratching their heads wondering what is going on. An 8 points only channel for 4 days?! Well, it is not someth …

3 comments


2013 Oct 27
Historical Data Bank Updated

Free index and index future data for all members are now ready. https://www.daytradingbias.com/?page_id=105159   We are correcting some upload issues with the forex data. Higher resolution index and index future data will be made available …

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2013 Oct 26
Real-Time Chat Transcript Issues

Users reported that the real-time chat transcript not working for several days. We finally figured out the problem and it is now fixed. It turns out the chatroom software does not really like us tinkling its code – the patch we did on the timestamp …

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2013 Oct 23
Success With New Prototype And Future Plans

Testing on our real-time delivery system was a success. The main purpose for this prototype is the introduction of real-time bias reporting and system signals. Since this obstacle is now taken care of, I will put together a beta release in the coming …

One comment


2013 Oct 22
Market Internals 2013-10-22

Monthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 October 22 close. Reading 1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) bearish 2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) in breako …

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