Archive for 3-da
Market Internals 2013-01-18
Posted by: | Comments
My monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Jan 18 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) touch down at neutral zone and bounced off
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) pulled back to neutral zone
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) diverging from new high printed by S&P itself
Inference
a. #1 still in trend buy mode. That means selloffs continue to be buying opportunities. It is diverging significantly relative to the rise in S&P implying a long term top in the making.
b. #2 points to a bottom in the making. Since price never pulled back, it can either be a parabolic breakout to the upside, or, if price suddenly breaking lower, look for oversold setup for the swing long entry.
c. #3 points to a pullback in the making
Last update predicted both the pullback and the swing low is a dip to buy correctly
Market Internals 2012-12-19
Posted by: | CommentsMy monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Dec 19 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) cleared neutral zone and zoomed to straight up to overbought area
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) divergence against price for about a month now
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) popped back up to overbought zone
Inference
a. #1 in trend buy mode. That means coming several selloffs can be bought on swing basis. A potential long term top in the making with time window of about 3 to 6 months.
b. #2 points to a top in the making but it will be used up when the red line drops back below neutral zone
c. #3 in the context of #1 points to a pullback in the making
Last update predicted the powerful upside push correctly
Market Internals 2012-11-19
Posted by: | CommentsThe current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Nov 19 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) rejected neutral zone and stuck in bearish zone
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) in compression for more than a month now
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) popped back up to overbought zone from divergence bottom
Inference
a. #1 still in trend sell mode
b. #2 points to breakout in the making
c. #3 in the context of #1 points to another push down in the making
d. if #2 resolves to the upside, #1 will follow and create a very powerful upside breakout
Market Internals 2012-10-18
Posted by: | CommentsThe current snapshot of 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Oct 18 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) in bearish zone
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) travels back to neutral zone
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) back to overbought zone
Inference
1. By #1 market still in trend sell mode
2. By #2 and #3 another swing top is likely in the making NOW
3. This top if produces a new low in price comparing to the mid October low while Short Term Tick16 and/or 3 Day Advance Issues producing a higher low, that could be a great swing low for a long play into year end.
Market Internals 2012-09-19
Posted by: | CommentsThe current snapshot of 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Sep 18 close.
Yes, am posting the chart 1 day late.
Reading
1. Long term Tick16 (yellow line) in bearish zone
2. Short term Tick16 (red line) recovered to above neutral zone with S&P printing year high
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) divergence top forming BUT refusing to go below neutral zone
Inference
2 opposite outcomes are expected from here -
1. Major top in the making with S&P dropping at least 10 to 15% quickly
2. The distribution witnessed by TICK16 represents significant money outflow from the stock market. If these money somehow due to external pressure being forced back into the stock market, we get a quick push to all time high before year end
The external pressure I am talking about is how people react to the Fed decision of QE infinity. This is a major wild card as no central bank has ever tried so hard to destroy wealth. Well, specifically destroy wealth of the middle class and lower class population around the whole world.
Market Internals 2012-08-17
Posted by: | CommentsThe current snapshot of 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Aug 17 Close.
Readings
1. 3-Day Advance Issues having divergence top against S&P
2. Tick16 ST is in overbought zone
3. Tick16 LT failed to push above neutral zone
Inference
#1 bearish – S&P ready for a significant pullback
#2 bearish – tell us that a selloff / consolidation is coming until Tick16 ST gets back to neutral zone
#3 bearish – tells us that down swings are expected to be stronger than up swings
Market Internals 2012-07-24
Posted by: | CommentsThe current snapshot of 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Jul 24 Close.
Readings
1. 3-Day Advance Issues printing new low with S&P at the same time
2. Tick16 ST is moving from overbought zone back down
3. Tick16 LT back to neutral zone flattening out
Inference
#1 confirms S&P in daily timeframe down trend
#2 tell us that the current sell off will be over soon once it gets back to neutral zone
#3 tells us that there is no strong direction for the market at the moment
#1 + #2 points to a pullback is due but it is likely that another down leg pushing S&P lower will follow
Market Internals 2012-06-17
Posted by: | CommentsThe market internal updates is turning into a monthly update …
First I was told that I need to post the chart here so that there is a reference to what I am talking about. So here it is the current snapshot of 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Jun 15 Close.
Readings
1. 3-Day Advance Issues is having a divergence sell setup as S&P is pushing a higher high while the indicator is not
2. Tick16 ST is very overbought
3. Tick16 LT back above neutral zone
Inference
#1 and #2 tell us that a pullback is due within a week for about a week to 2 weeks
#3 tells us that first pullback is a buy
So, once the 3-Day Advance or Tick16 ST going back down to their respective oversold levels, S&P should get another push higher
Let me know if you like this new format.
Market Internals 2012-05-14
Posted by: | CommentsDid not post an update on the breadth readings for quite some time. My bad.
The main theme so far over past 2 weeks is that since Tick16 long term has went into negative territory, first and 2nd overbought in 3-Day Advance Issues are good sell setups.
Now as the selling going fine, and that Tick16 LT has recovered, a flush low in price with oversold in 3-Day Advance Issues will give us a strong swing bottom.
It can happen within a few days due to the fact that ES is likely to trade below previous week close.
Market Internals 2013-02-17
Posted by: Lawrence Chan | Comments (0)My monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Feb 17 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) below neutral zone but not dropping
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) pulled back to neutral zone
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) diverging from new high printed by S&P itself
Inference
a. #1 in bearish consolidation mode. That means 30-min timeframe intraday has no continuation strength. Both overbought and oversold on 30-min and up would result in reversal easily.
b. #2 points to breakout mode as the index has compressed at neutral zone for days.
c. #3 points to a pullback in breadth (advance issues) back down to neutral zone is necessary. It can correct itself without dragging the price of S&P lower. If so it will be very bullish for S&P.
Last update predicted it was still in favour of the bulls and every push lowered were good long opportunities. That was indeed what happened. This may change if #1 starts to slide lower away from the neutral zone into more bearish level.