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Archive for DJ30

Feb
08

Dow 30 Feb 10 to Feb 14 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dow could not hold above Y-1 leading to continuation sell down to below Y-2. Formed double bottom and zoomed higher back up to above Y-1 and initiated a squeeze to Y-0. Closed the week at Y-0 and near week high.

Outlook
NFP week ended like a normal NFP week. So it is likely to play out like a normal post NFP Monday and Tuesday.

Very violent price swings are expected with limited upside potential.

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Feb
01

Dow 30 Feb 03 to Feb 07 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dow completely dominated by bottom pickers in the beginning of the week. Hence failed to clear the previous week close from below. As new low printed mid week, the bounce that followed could not even clear Y-1. Flushed to 2X weekly opening range and bounced. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Potential 3 pushes down in place. Dow has to move above B-0 swiftly and find support at the 2nd swing low from last week to trigger a counter-trend rally with target above B+1.

Until Dow can prove itself, more downside is expected as the down side targets are not tagged yet.

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Jan
25

Dow 30 Jan 27 to Jan 31 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
As mentioned last time, the market is unstable. Violent breakout happened to the downside. Sold off all the way to below Y-3. Closed the week below Y-3 and at week low.

Outlook
Some more downside is expected early next week. Authorities will likely come out to b.s. the market back up. That points to a bounce back up to Y-2 potential.

This drop is completely expected – both by market breadth signals and analog to Y2K.

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Jan
18

Dow 30 Jan 20 to Jan 24 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dropped to down channel target of below Y-2. Channel overshoot gave us a run back up to channel top above Y-1 and started a short squeeze. Yet, Dow failed to push higher and dropped quickly back down to Y-1. Closed the week below Y-0 and above mipoint.

Outlook
Messy swings imply instability. Last time we have something like this was back in year 2000 where the normal boundaries are violated easily. Expecting the same to happen now.

As long as B-0 not acting as resistance we do not have a swing level sell setup in place.

Upside breakout points to B+2 quickly.

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Jan
11

Dow 30 Jan 13 to Jan 17 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Spike and ledge from the week before failed to produce a sell off last week. Y-1 acted as support most of the week producing strong bounces back up. Closed the week near Y-1 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Spike and ledge invalidated. Dow turned into a bull flag. This is a bullish setup. If Dow can clear B-0 decisively, a run to at least B+2 is in play.

The bull flag pattern, of course, can continue and Dow will likely drift down to B-2 within a channel formation.

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Jan
04

Dow 30 Jan 06 to Jan 10 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Consolidation around previous week close. Found resistance from Y+1 / week mid later in the week. Closed the week above Y-0 and below midpoint.

Outlook
Potential spike and ledge in place. Break of B-1 points to B-3 first target. As long as B-1 holds, Dow still in good position to challenge B+1 again.

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Dec
28

Dow 30 Dec 30 to Jan 03 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Dow updrift / seasonal took it to upside target of Y+2. Stalled since. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Seasonal strength ended last week. Low volume environment can work both ways. If there is not much news shock to bear, consolidation in tight range is expected. If there is news shock, Dow can swing wildly without long term implications.

Best to stay away until after new year.

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Dec
21

Dow 30 Dec 23 to Dec 27 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Long bias from last week was simple but proven not easy for many. Dow just popped back up to Y-0 and went sideway. Then it took off without filling the gap below. Made new year high as expected. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.

Outlook
Will be difficult two weeks to trade if you want to force a play during this time. 2 reasons why it will be difficult.

First, post FOMC week almost always reverse everything happened after the announcement thus Y-0 is in play in coming 2 weeks.

But we are entering the low volume updrift time window to new year which is usually bullish (mildly).

I do not usually trade in the last 2 weeks of the year anyway. Given the conflicting setups, if we get a move, it will be very violent. Hands off is probably the best option.

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Dec
14

Dow 30 Dec 16 to Dec 20 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Was looking for a down move and we got it. Seasonal bias gave us the strong swing down til Thursday. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.

Outlook
The seasonal bearish bias was used up last week. If Dow can find a swing bottom early next week Christmas rally will send Dow back up to year high before Christmas.

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Dec
07

Dow 30 Dec 09 to Dec 13 Outlook

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Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Y-0 acted as resistance at the start of the week, gave us the decisive break of Y-1 and dropped down to target Y-3. This is the easiest play for the week. From there Dow found support at Y-4 and consolidated around it until the end of the week where the NFP report changed everything. Dow gapped back up to week mid and run higher since. Closed the week below Y-1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Very unusual NFP week points to unusual follow up.

As long as Y-1/B+1 acting as resistence looking for a move back down to B-0 / Y-3.

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