Archive for S&P 500
Looking for weaknesses last week and we got that. ES tagged the minimal 5% pullback for the seasonal bias and took off since. ES did not stop until hitting 200% absolute range expansion. Closed the week above Y+1 and at week high.
ES back up to the area where initial debt ceiling selloff started. It is now back to the zone and it will be another round of news driven environment from here.
A consolidation around B+1 is expected between slightly above Y+2 and slightly below Y+1.
This is not a normal market environment.
As expected ES dropped down to the Y-2 and Y-3 area and fighted hard to hold up. Y-0 acting as resistance forced a retest of week low made on Monday. ES found support at Y-2 and bounced back up. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.
ES has been dragged on by 2 opposite forces hence the extreme swings from day to day. Since NQ still has not make up its mind if it is going higher or not, this fight will continue into this week.
Y-0 / B+1 very strong resistance zone. A test of the resistance or a FBO from there will send ES back down to week low quickly. Things can get very complicated by end of the week as the debt ceiling issue will become the focus once again.
ES spiked down to Y-1 and then tried to hold it since. Dow’s all out collapse dragged ES lower and forced ES to consolidate around Y-1. ES closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Chart pattern not as bearish as Dow. Better say it is in a mess due to the strength in NQ and weaknesses in Dow pulling it 2 ways.
ES can easily drop to B-2 and B-3 as there is really no support below B-1.
Once ES trades above B-0, the shorts from last week will be squeezed hard putting B+1 and above potential targets.
Swing plays will be difficuly while daytrade opportunities are better this week.
Y+1 did not act as resistance at all. ES simply open above it and stayed above til Fed announcement. ES zoomed to Y+3 and stalled. Closed the week below midpoint and Y+2.
Not bullish because new high for the year was rejected quickly. Not bearish either because ES has not quite breached the former year high yet.
Looking for consolidation around 1700 this week.
Bear flag breakout like Dow. ES rallied higher to fill the open gap above and then stalled. Closed the week at Y-2 and above midpoint.
As long as B+1 acting as resistance, B-1 in play.
I posted last time on what happened back in 2003 with the Iraq war.
Following is the same chart updated with swing size details.
Comparing that to what is happening now, it is similar in an eerie way.
1. First talk of military action back in mid-July 2013. Yep, you read this right, the timing is the same as the blue up arrow in the 2003 chart.
2. Same 50% pullback as highlighted by the red line in the middle of the chart.
Big Question – Rally to double top or similar target like 2003?
That we have to wait and see.
NFP week bias worked out again even though ES looked like it wanted to break down after Tuesday’s selloff. By Friday after NFP, ES flushed lower yet someone stepped in to support the market. Shorts are squeezed hard going into the end of the week. Closed the week above midpoint and Y-0.
Inside week. Y-0 and midpoint near each other. Bear flag visible on 30-minute. A break of B-0 and that turning into resistance points to retest of Y-1.
Since the trouble in Syria will take time to resolve. ES may simply drift around the first few days this week.
Nailed the whiplash behaviour again. ES has to drop to almost Y-2 before support was found. ES bounced back up to its current midpoint and failed to clear the resistance. Dropped back down to Y-2 by end of the week. Closed the week near week low and below Y-1.
Outside down week is bearish. The bear hook formation from the week before gave us a great trading week last week but this week will be very confusing.
Non-farm payroll week is bullish in general but ES chart is in breakdown mode.
To enable the NFP bias, aside from a week that drift up all week, it is also possible to gap down sharply on weekly basis and wasting all week to pop back up.
Definitely not a week to pick bottom until B-1 is acting as support.
ES flushed down to the downside target area and bounced quickly back up to above Y-1. That staged the rally back up to challenge the open gap above. Closed the week at week high and above Y-1.
Potential whiplash break down in play. As long as ES failed to go above Y-0 / B+2 early in the week, continuation sell off will take ES back down to B-1 and likely much lower.
Failed to clear Y-0 resistance. Gapped down to below Y-2 and flushed down to Y-3 before a bottom is found. Closed the week below Y-3 and near week low.
Spike and ledge top points to Y-5 target in play. If ES can tag Y-5 quickly in the beginning of coming week, a bounce back up to B-1 and even a run back up to B-0 is possible.
Spike and ledge tops are very strong topping pattern. It gives ES a strong potential to have a longer term top in place already. Until a long term bottom formation is formed, ES should be treated as inside a long term down trend.