Archive for Weekly Outlook
USDJPY Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Instead of a quite week, we got Japanese officials who refused to shutup. That guaranteed the flush to new low for us when ninja failed to clear the pre-breakdown level. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.
Outlook
Long term support around 92.
Intervention at B-1 will send it back up to B-0 easily. As long as B-0 upto Y-0 acting as resistance, I think ninja has to move down to 92 first before bottoming out on weekly basis.
Nasdaq 100 Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
NQ did not zoom higher and failed to clear Y+1. That opened the door to retest of Y-0 and we got that from a fierce gap down. NQ bounced off Y-0 and filled the gap above, yet failed to go higher right after. NQ breaking Y-0 led to full scale selloff down to almost Y-1 yet not touching it and bounced. Y-0 rejected NQ’s rally attempt. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook
Inside week breakout mode in place. NQ failed to hold Y-0 points to its strength from the week before last was fake. That also means the real direction for now is still down until invalidated by a rally above B-0 and that turning into support.
Would not consider going long until B-0 acting as support for a run to B+1.
Bias towards a flush down to B-2.
USDCAD Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
As expected, Canadian dollar consolidated around Y-1 with downside bias. Closed the week around Y-1 and below midpoint.
Outlook
No strong directional bias because loonie is so close to par level its attraction cannot be ignored. A flush to 1.00 vs downside wedge breakout to the upside with target Y-0 to B+2 are equally likely.
Breakout play on both ends are just 100 pips. There are better opportunities out there.
GBPUSD Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Cable held the breakout level nicely and rallied to retest Y+1 as expected. Once Y+1 was tagged cable went into consolidation. Closed the week at Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Potential rounding top in the making. Spike new high that stalls below B+2 back down to below Y+1 will signal a pullback to at least below B-1.
EURUSD Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Euro drifted higher around Y+1. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Completely artificial rally since 3 weeks ago by empty promises from ECB. A tight up channel is visible on 4 hours and 8 hours.
Rallied like cable and keep extending to the upside in a well defined structure cannot continue for a long time. Expects quick snapback down to B-2 once the up channel support line is broken.
Dow 30 Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Original accessment that Dow would consolidate between Y-0 and Y+1 was correct for the first part of the week. Then the b.s. gap up in mid-week failed to pop the market higher. Dow flushed back down to fill the gap below. Closed the week below Y-0 and near week low.
Outlook
Looking for further downside to create a swing bottom at Y-1 down to B-2. Dow can go lower than that but not necessary.
The rare case scenario is that Dow popping higher above B-0 quickly and B-0 acting as support. That can launch Dow up to B+2 in a few weeks.
S&P 500 Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
ES failed to clear 1650 and dropped down to the gap below as expected. Multiple 75% swings producing a triangle pattern on 30-min. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook
Triangle breakout mode.
A surprise to some, but chart pattern points to slight favour for breakout to the downside with target B-2 down to Y-2.
Upside breakout needs to clear B+1 first.
Dow 30 Jun 10 to Jun 14 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
First time since beginning of the year where Y-0 acted as resistance and gave us a selloff down to my target area 14800-14900. As I warned last week, beware of government intervention and got just that to zoom everything higher at the expense of trashing US dollar. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
The first big challenge of the managed market environment coming this week.
Although the coordinated effort to pop the stock markets worldwide worked like a charm last week, it cannot stop the market from going down again unless more intervention is coming. The way the unloading of stocks over the past month implies major players are no longer interested in the stock market.
As long as these money are not coming back into the stock market, it will not be able to produce a stable environment for stocks to go higher for prolonged period of time.
This week Dow should consolidate within B+1 and B-0. Once the short term overbought condition is neutralize, as long as Dow is still holding above B-0, it can go higher.
Nasdaq 100 Jun 10 to Jun 14 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
NQ flushed to Y-2 in the beginning of the week and bounced off. Similar to Dow, its test of Y-0 failed to push higher and opened the door to retest Y-2. NQ flushed through Y-2 and tagged Y-3 before it could find a bottom. Intervention produced a very strong squeeze landing NQ above its multiple weeks resistance line. Closed the week above Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
NQ is strongest in its overall reversal as it also cleared its multiple week resistance. As long as NQ can zoom higher quickly early this week, next upside targets are B+1 and Y+1.
AUDUSD Jun 17 to Jun 21 Outlook
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Aussie bounced back to resistance as expected early in the week. But instead of crashing downward, it held Y-1 and then zoomed back up to Y-0. Closed the week below Y-0 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Gold dictated Aussie’s every move last week. Not the best environment to trade this pair unless you monitor gold closely.
4 Hour bear flag clearly in place so a retest of B-0 downto Y-1 likely. If Aussie holds there, a run to B+1 and breakout to B+2 will be in play.
The more likely outcome is bear flag breakdown with a retest of B-1.