Archive for Weekly Outlook
Dow 30 Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Expected a pullback from the selloff but not a straight up like what we got last week. Closed the week near week high right underneath 13000 round number and above Y+1.
Outlook
Dow pullback to where the head and shoulder formation neckline is. Should Dow failed to go higher next week, it will confirm the resistance of the neckline and further decline will be likely.
If Dow can clear the neckline resistance, the gap above will be filled as B+2 is an easy target to spike to if they feed out more news to squeeze the shorts.
EURUSD Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Y-0 acted as support since the start of the week and a spike down from Y+1 failed to clear that resulting in a very powerful short squeeze. Y+3 cleared by Friday when trading was very thin due to Thanksgiving holiday. Closed the week near week high above Y+3.
Outlook
As suspected in past 2 weeks, 1.26 is so critical that it is defended with all out news on deals after deals to delay the inevitable. This week if euro fails to close above B-0, it will be a confirmed FBO and we will get a quick flush back down to B-2 in weeks to follow.
GBPUSD Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Got the breakout to the upside early in the week and the spike low in the middle of the week never breached Y-0. The nice surprise is that by end of week the upside breakout tagged Y+4 as oppose to stopping at Y+3. Closed the week near week high and above Y+3.
Outlook
The final breakout at the end of the week is pure stop run during the holiday period. It is not sustainable and B-0 is likely to be tested quickly.
Until B-0 is proven support, cable may have to retest B-1 or even Y-1 first before going higher.
USDCAD Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
FBO confirmed and sold off to B-2 as expected. By end of week a stop run carried the pair down to Y-3. Closed the week below Y-2 and near week low.
Outlook
Similar to other majors, the extra spike we got on Friday is definitely not normal. A retest of B-0 is in order.
Middle East tension could be the trigger for all out USD rally against the majors.
Nasdaq 100 Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
A bounce was expected but not a huge rally like what we got last week. Somehow “good news” after “good news” were fed out during the holiday week to pop the indices higher. Obviously an attempt to boost the Black Friday weekend shopping season. NQ closed the week near week high, right below the open gap made in early November.
Outlook
Looking for a top to form between B+1 to Y+2. If NQ is following its business cycle, it will start to top out from the end of this year to early next year. If the topping action is completed now, we will see an almost straight down decline in NQ until the end of this year.
NQ has always been bearish over last 2 months in Election year. I do not expect that will change.
AUDUSD Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Breached Y-0 from below early in the week. Simply consolidate around Y-0 since until Friday with a spike move ending the week. Closed the week near week high and tagged Y+1.
Outlook
Aussie moved back to the upper boundary of its consolidation since early November. If it can clear B+1 and stays above, a strong support is in place and B+2 will be tagged quickly.
Failing to hold above Y+1 points to retest of B-0 from above.
S&P 500 Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Similar to Dow and NQ, ES shot up whole week last week and recovered all the ground it lost over the past several weeks. Closed the week near week high and right below Y+2 / open gap from early November.
Outlook
Back to daily and weekly level resistance zone. Clearing this area will allow ES to challenge year high quickly as it enters the seasonal bullish period. The problem with the setup, however, is that it is driven up without any volume, hence can induce significant size selling right here as trapped long finally get a chance to bail out.
Expecting a sharp selloff back down to B-1 and probably lower. I am not looking for a long term selloff continuation. I am talking about a very steep shake out before ES drifting higher during the December holiday season.
EURUSD Mar 26 to Mar 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Upside target Y+2 tagged. 1.33 resistance area challenged as expected. Closed the week above Y+1.
Outlook
Critical moment for euro here.
If it can break above 1.33 area and stay above there, a short term uptrend is established.
If 1.33 / B+1 acts as resistance, will likely see a retest of B-1.
USDJPY Mar 26 to Mar 30 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Y+1 acted as resistance and sent the pair back down to Y-1 as expected. Closed the week near week low and Y-1.
Outlook
Short term top in place meaning that the pair will have to either consolidate on weekly level or potentially pullback significantly.
To play the pullback, daytrading is preferred. Long term bias is to look for a weekly support zone to go long or adding to the long.
Next week as long as B-0 acting as resistance, B-2 in play.
USDJPY Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
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Continued with the march to above 82. Y+2 tagged with mild pullback. Closed the week below Y+2 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Next upside target is 86. Ninja is at a critical juncture. US uses devaluation of US dollar to mask out its problems from showing in the stock markets. The rise of dollar from past 2 months really hurting the stock market significantly. There is very strong incentive for those who are in control to suppress US dollar from going higher. Any news shock that drives US dollar higher will allow this pair to tag 86 quickly.
Must hold B-1 for the swing long to continue.