Archive for Weekly Outlook
AUDUSD Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Y-0 failed to turn into support even though price moved above Y-0 early in the week. Closed the week near Y-1.
Outlook
Similar to last week, until B-0 is turning into support, the down trend would stay intact and difficult for the pair to go higher.
EURUSD Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Euro broken out to the upside after news shock. Stayed in a tight range above Y+1 since. Closed the week above Y+1.
Outlook
Critical week.
If euro can stay above Y+1 by end of week, the weekly breakout will be confirmed and that opens the door to higher price levels.
If euro failed to stay above Y+1 by end of week, it will turn into a false breakout on weekly level implying quick drop back down to B-3.
USDCAD Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
As expected stuck within the tight week established over the past several weeks. Closed the week near midpoint.
Outlook
If B-0 acts as support and push for a breakout of B+1, we have a short term uptrend in place.
Otherwise not expecting any significant move from the pair.
GBPUSD Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Got our target Y+2 early in the week. Pullback holding Y-0 giving us a 2nd chance for test and break above Y+2. Closed the week at Y+2.
Outlook
If the uptrend is going to continue, a fast run to B+2 is needed early in the week as the push up is significantly weaker so far.
If B-0 failed to act as support, expecting a quick drop back down to B-2.
Nasdaq 100 Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
I was expecting a retest of Y+1 and possibly a run to Y+2. Well, it turned out to be full blown melt up to Y+3. Then, without warning, collapsed back down to below Y+1. Closed the week below midpoint and near Y+1.
Outlook
The strong reversal to the down side with a weak close points to further weaknesses into early next week.
Gap fill below is likely.
After gap fill if support is found quickly, then a bottom can be built over a week or 2 and then retest of year high is likely.
S&P 500 Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Tagged Y+1 target early in the week from a gap and failed to hold above Y+1. That gave us a shot to drop ES down to Y-0 quickly. Selloff ended after a 100% absolute range expansion is completed and bounced back above week mid to close.
Outlook
As long as Y+1 acts as resistance, the FBO is intact pointing to eventual selloff to Y-1.
Breaking below Y-1 would be quite bearish as this will be the 2nd crack on the weekly uptrend.
Overall, entering seasonal weaknesses during these 2 weeks thus ES can go sideway or drift down slowly if no other catalyst is affecting the market.
Dow 30 Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Was looking for 2nd consolidation week and got exactly that. Inside week with close below midpoint near Y-0.
Outlook
Coiling up with 2 weeks in a row closing at around same price level again. Indecision.
Breakout mode in place. A break out of this range will be a very powerful move no matter it is going to the upside or the downside.
May take a few more weeks to consolidate if there is no event driving the market in a particular direction.
USDJPY Apr 02 to Apr 06 Outlook
Posted by: News Robot | Comments (0)Lawrence’s Comment
Y-0 not acting as resistance, giving the pair a chance to bottom out at Y-1. Closed the week above midpoint and below Y-0.
Outlook
Clear rejection of Y-1 area a 2nd time, opening the door to retest B+1 and likely to challenge Y+1 / B+2 again.