Archive for Weekly Outlook
USDJPY Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Inside week. Absolutely going nowhere. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook
A week of bear flag points to retest of Y-1 sometime next week.
If a base is formed within B-1 to B-2, a retest of Y+1 is likely within a few weeks.
USDCAD Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Drifted lowered as expected. Slow holiday activity gave us 50% previous week range. Closed the week above Y-1 and near week high.
Outlook
A test of Y-0 / B+2 is expected.
What will happen after that heavily depends on the reaction at the target price level.
GBPUSD Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
B-0 failed to act as support on pullback leading to a flush back down to Y-1. News shock played a big role on the flush though. Closed the week at the low and below Y-1.
Outlook
Outside down week is a very strong bearish setup. That capped the upside for next week to B-0. A drop down to Y-2 / B-2 is expected.
EURUSD Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
As expected, the weekly downtrend continues. Non-stop selling trapped bottom pickers and flushed to Y-2 downside target. Closed the week near week low.
Outlook
As long as Y-1 acts as resistance, Y-3 down to B-2 in play.
If early next week euro flushes below B-1 but snaps back up quickly above that, a drift towards B-0 is expected.
Dow 30 Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
3 pushes up and a slide back down to 3 pushes up downside target. Holiday trading with very light volume throughout the week. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Multiple gaps created both to the upside and downside. These gaps are likely to be resolved in very volatile fashion. No real direction for swing trade until Dow move out of this gapped zone between 12400 to 12900.
Nasdaq 100 Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Got 1st upside target and almost 2nd one (Y+2) before news shock took it back down quickly. Closed the week near Y+1 and below midpoint.
Outlook
If a 2nd down leg fails to take NQ below B-2, the daily uptrend is still intact and another violent rally can zoom this higher still.
This month is the time window where a potential major top is going to establish as projected in MBO several months ago. Upside potential is limited at this point on swing basis.
Better stick with daytrading until a trend is established on daily.
S&P 500 Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Pushed higher early in the week but capped by holiday trading and news shock. Consolidation around Y+1 with 50% previous week range. Closed the week below Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Multiple gaps above and below defined a 50 point range from 1320 upto 1370. As long as ES not trading below B-1, B+1 should be retested based on longer term price pattern.
Failure to break out above B+1, however, points to the potential of a long term top.
AUDUSD Apr 09 to Apr 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Y-0 acted as resistance and down trend continue as expected. Closed the week at Y-1.
Outlook
Interesting turning point in the making if the pair can jump up to B-0 and above right off the start of next week. The reason is that the spike low at B-1 resulted in a potential w. spring off Y-1. As long as Y-1 acts as support, Y+1 is in play.
As the reversal potential is there, will no longer look for continuation short again this week.
USDJPY Apr 09 to Apr 13 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Tested Y+1 alright. Failed at once forcing the pair back down to Y-1. Y-1 failed to act as support opening the door to selling off down to Y-2. Closed the week below Y-1 but did not tag Y-2.
Outlook
Weaknesses in the pair was partly news shock (i.e. Japanese government b.s.) and partly the slow pullback I have been talking about since its top.
There is no reason for the pair to go higher until the shake out is completed and that most of the weak hands on the long side are removed.
The first sign this consolidation / pullback process will be completed is that we get a 4 hour or higher timeframe double bottom or 1-2-3 buy off the weekly support levels.
AUDUSD Jul 09 to Jul 13 Outlook
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Keep drifting higher most of the week. Due to holiday week, 50% previous week range around Y+1 bounded the price actions. Closed the week near week low and below Y+1.
Outlook
Failure to take out Y+1 / B-0 early next week means a push towards Y-0 is in play. As long as Y-0 can hold this up, looking for this rally to continue.