Archive for Weekly Outlook
USDJPY Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Tried very hard to form a low above the support zone mentioned last week yet failed to do so. Landing at the target zone finally resulted in extreme upside reaction, yet sold off back down to the support zone again. Closed below Y-1 and near week low.
Outlook
Partly news driven, partly stop run on a very thin market. Resistance is now clearly defined at 80. Long term up trend can resume once 80 is taken out and turning into support.
A game of patience here. Ample time to wait for the confirmation before jumping in.
USDCAD Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
A push towards Y+2 as expected. Failed on 3rd try resulting in a quick slide back down to Y-0. Closed the week near week low.
Outlook
As long as B-0 acting as resistance, there should be more downside. B-2 is likely early next week. The goal could be simply forcing a flush towards par.
GBPUSD Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Y-0 capped the drift up attempt. The selloff, however, is not as strong as expected. That can be partially contributed to the news shock from Europe zone that reversed the course of many markets. The sudden reversal resulted in a push to new high for the week. Closed the week near week high.
Outlook
The end of week move is very suspicious and it may not last. We need B-0 or B+1 to act as support so that we can be sure the reversal is for real.
I need to see the first 2 swings next week to determine a push to B+2 is possible.
EURUSD Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
No quick snap back up early in the week. Just drift down. End of week sudden pop back up to Y-1. Closed the week at midpoint and below Y-1.
Outlook
No clue from the price actions last week.
Normally, such weak consolidation points to much lower prices the week right after. But rumors are flying all over the place since Friday. I expect sudden surprises and wild swings this coming week.
Dow 30 Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Bottom side of the gap range (12400-12900) mentioned last week was tested and decidely rejected. Closed the week above previous week close.
Outlook
As long as B-0 acts as support, a quick push towards the upside of the top side of the gap range is expected.
Nasdaq 100 Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Failed to push thru Y-0 early in the week and a landslide started. Y-2 failed to act as support and forced a flush below Y-3. Rally from the bottom was magnified by news shock forcing NQ to push back up to Y-0 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Unlike Dow, NQ is not as strong in both swing pattern and STOPD level. It is painting a more bearish picture.
If NQ cannot push above Y-1, or that NQ drops below B-0 and that turning into resistance, a retest of B-1 is likely.
Difficult week to trade even for daytrading.
S&P 500 Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
A dramatic week. Failed to push above Y-0 and flushed through Y-1 quickly. Y-2 acted as support temporarily and then flushed down to new low above Y-3. Multiple news shock induced massive short squeeze. Closed the week above Y-1 and previous week close.
Outlook
Upside 1360 gap fill still in play. A push towards B+2 is possible if B-0 can act as support.
So far this rally is again pure short squeeze. It is very similar to the rally from late June. The moment new bad news unfolds from Europe again, everything will turn south quickly.
USDJPY Apr 16 to Apr 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Whatever excuses the analysts pointing out that you can go long ninja last week are just excuses. They do not have a clue that the consolidation phase is not completed yet. As expected weaknesses continue and ninja closed below Y-1 in a tight range week.
Outlook
Almost there at the long term (monthly and higher timeframes) support of slightly below 80 area.
Will watch closely for a bottom to form in this 79.5 to 80.5 zone.
AUDUSD Apr 16 to Apr 20 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
As mentioned last week, the reversal potential is there and no longer looking for short. Nailed it. 100% absolute range expansion stopped the run up slighly below Y+1. Closed the week near midpoint and Y-0.
Outlook
Feels like king when a market behaves almost exactly as expected. =)
The bottoming process in Aussie is closely related to how gold will play out at the current juncture. So keep an eye on gold price movement will help here.
For this week, as long as B-0 acting as support, looking for a run to retest B+1 and potential to tag B+2.
AUDUSD Jul 16 to Jul 20 Outlook
Posted by: News Robot | Comments (0)Lawrence’s Comment
As projected last week, a test of resistance first and then a drop to target below. Very orderly. Closed the week above midpoint and Y-1.
Outlook
Support zone acted as support implies uptrend not broken yet. As long as B-1 stays as support a retest of B+1 and Y+1 is in order.