Archive for Weekly Outlook
USDJPY Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Failed to break above previous week close right from the start led to a flush to Y-2 before a bounce can happen. The bounce failed to go above Y-1. Selloff til 100% absolute range expansion is completed and stuck at the bottom part of the range. Closed the week near week low.
Outlook
Every news that came out just sent ninja lower and lower. It is now very close to the all critical 78 long term support zone.
Ninja has to hold that on weekly closing basis or the long term bullish view will be invalidated.
EURUSD Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
I was talking about sudden wild swings last week and we got that everyday last week. Every day during european session euro drifted lower yet by US session euro popped higher quickly. By Friday however the magic was gone when banks from Spain started feeding out bad news. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.
Outlook
No one, including ECB, EU and Fed, has provided a reason for anyone to buy euro. As no one sees any signs of stregnth in euro, the selloff on Friday is expected. Big question is how far will euro drop before finding a floor.
As long as B-0 acts as resistance, B-2 to B-3 is likely early next week.
USDCAD Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
A forced flush down to Y-2. Closed the week at Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Definitely trying hard to form a bottom here. The process, however, can take some time to develop.
Breakout above B+1 will lead to a short squeeze with Y+1 to B+3 as target zone.
The more likely scenario is that Loonie stays in a tight range below B+1.
Dow 30 Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Pullback to Y-0 and took off immediately. Got the upside target 12900 as mentioned last week. Closed the week at Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
So far Dow has failed to move out of the gap range as it gapped down from 12900 and did not fill the gap above before the close of the week. That implies very strong resistance at the 12900 boundary.
As long as B-0 holds, expect the gap above to be filled but no conviction that B+1 will be cleared by next week.
If B-0 fails to act as support, there is nothing underneath to support Dow until 12500-12600 zone. So long side players have to be very careful with swing longs.
GBPUSD Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Took no time to tag Y+2. Pullback right after bounced off Y+1. That points to more upside potential. Eventually breakout above Y+2 and completed 100% absolute range expansion. Closed the week below midpoint and above Y+1.
Outlook
Strength is confirmed by this week’s price action. As long as B-1 acts as support, more upside is expected.
Nasdaq 100 Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Unlike Dow or S&P, NQ was forced to breakout upside when both Dow and S&P both moving up strongly. It has been a long while since last time that NQ was not a leader. This behaviour caught many traders by surprise obviously and started a very volatile short squeeze. NQ finally gave up when it tagged the month high made early in July. Closed the week above midpoint and below Y+1.
Outlook
2 opposite scenarios emerged. Both patterns are valid and almost equally likely.
First is a massive double top in the making that is visible all the way upto daily timeframe. Early confirmation that this pattern is in control when NQ drops down to close on daily basis below Y-0.
Equally powerful is a weekly level continuation pattern. It will be confirmed if NQ can close above B+1 on daily timeframe. That points to a significant rally with minimal target above B+3.
Usually a situation like this only emerges when major (weekly and above) timeframes is having a showdown among the bulls and the bears. It is a good time to sit on the sideline and let them fight. We can always join the winning side later.
S&P 500 Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Y-0 acted as support as expected and ES took off to tag Y+2 upside target. So precise that it feels like it is executed from a script. Once completed pullback to Y+1. Closed the week at Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Holding B-0 early in the week points to at least an attempt to close the gap above.
Any lower high (above B-0, below B+1) formed from this push up, however, can induce a fast selloff back down to below B-0 with likely target of B-1.
USDJPY Apr 23 to Apr 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Does not even need to drop to long term support, dollar yen already popped higher. Breaking above 2-week resistance line and zoomed back up near Y+1. Completed 100% absolute range expansion. Closed near high of week.
Outlook
As long as B-0 down to B-1 act as support, expecting the pair going much higher.
If B-0 acts as support next week , B+1 retest is the first target with B+2 as the 2nd target.
If B-1 acts as support instead, will look for breakout above B+1 with an explosive target above B+3.
USDCAD Apr 23 to Apr 27 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Sold off as expected to our downside target from resistance zone. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Y-0 down to B-0 is now resistance zone.
Failure to take out B-0 is likely and a retest of B-1 will tell us if support is found or a flush to B-2 is needed.
AUDUSD Jul 23 to Jul 27 Outlook
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Upside target tagged. Breakout right after and zoomed to almost Y+3. Closed the week at Y+2 and above midpoint.
Outlook
As mentioned last week, uptrend is intact thus aussie should go higher. More upside is expected even with the not likely scenario of a slow pullback to B-1.
B-0 down to Y+1 should be strong support and act as platform for a retest of B+1.