Archive for Weekly Outlook
USDJPY Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
78 tested and held very well the whole week. Closed the week bouncing off 78 and near week high.
Outlook
As long as B-0 acts as support, B+2 should be tested quickly.
Critical time window for a long term low to be formed.
USDCAD Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
First move in the week caught me by surprise – zoomed to Y+2 first before stalling back down to Y-1. Closed the week near week low.
Outlook
Last week I was looking for weaknesses in the pair and I got it 1/2 right. Seems like the sellers were not in controll at all when we got that stop run move to the upside. That signals the potential of a bottom in the making for the near term.
Swing trading will not be a good idea for this pair until after a clear direction is established.
Dow 30 Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Last week’s warning that once Y-0 failed to act as support, Dow has no support until 12500. There it was. Sold off to 12500 and took off. Rallied all the way back to Y+1. Closed the week near week high.
Outlook
As long as B-0 (preferrably higher) acting as support, more upside is expected.
GBPUSD Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Pulled back to Y-1 as expected and rallied off there back to Y+1. Still the most predictable pair among the majors. Closed the week near week high.
Outlook
Summer Games started. Expecting major slow down in trading on European currencies.
As long as ECB and its peers also focus on the games instead of producing news shocks, sideway consolidation week is expected.
EURUSD Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Tagged Y-2 as expected. Then came the empty promises from various officials in Europe. Short squeeze all the way. Closed the week near week high.
Outlook
Same old empty promises strike again. Popped euro higher and other risk assets as well. We all know it will not last.
For now, however, just play along. As long as B-0 acting as support, Euro can go higher.
Nasdaq 100 Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap down to Y-1 right off the start of the week. Failed to fill the gap above on first try and flushed to below Y-1. Then everything reversed as euro led the way. Closed the week near week high and filled the gap above completely.
Outlook
More upside is expected. Summer Games will reduce the liquidity and in a situation like this, it favours the bulls.
S&P 500 Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
As mentioned last week, any weaknesses would land ES back down to Y-1. We got that right at the beginning of the week. After pullback to mid gap, ES flushed down to near Y-2 before bottoming out. Europe news shock forced a low in place and short squeeze took ES back to resistance above. Some officials obviously are not happy with the outcome, so feeding out one more news shock. That forced ES to gap up and filled the gap above from last week completely. Closed the week near week high.
Outlook
Completely messed up trading environment for swing traders. Daytrading is perfectly fine though.
Looking for some more upside and then consolidation til Summer Games is over.
USDJPY Apr 30 to May 04 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
A pretty perfect week. Y-0 acted as support early in the week sending dollar yen to Y+1, which acted as resistance. Y-0 failed to act on 2nd time as support, we got Y-1 by end of week. Nice swings all the way.
Outlook
A flush is needed to give us a good bottom on weekly. B-1 downto B-2 is close to the long term support area as well. Will see if a flush to B-2 early in the coming week can produce a bottom.
Rally above B-0 will get us an excuse to rally to B+2.
AUDUSD Apr 30 to May 04 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
A flush to Y-2 resulted in a quick bounce back above Y-1. That puts Y+1 in play. As mentioned last week, we are looking for a run to Y+1, then Y+2. Got both by end of the week.
Outlook
Aussie can pullback from here but it is not necessary until Y+3 is tagged.
It should hold B-0 area as support if it is going higher.
AUDUSD Jul 30 to Aug 03 Outlook
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Pullback deeper than originally thought. Y-1 acted as support still and ralled all the way to Y+1 target. Closed the week near week high.
Outlook
Aussie did not close above Y+1, making it possible for a top to form early next week if Y+1 is not cleared. No strong bias in either direction.