Archive for Weekly Outlook
AUDUSD May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Did not push higher at all. First drop to Y-0 did not even hold above Y-0. That opens the door to Y-1. Closed the week well below Y-1 near Y-2.
Outlook
Total mess in terms of PA. Traders on both sides are trapped.
A flush to Y-2 likely results in a bounce to Y-1.
Dow 30 May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Ranged bounded play worked out well for the first 4 days last week. Then NFP report forced a breakout to the downside. Normal 2X target from the tight range tagged. Closed the week near its low.
Outlook
NFP report itself is not something predictable but its consequence in the following week is.
Clearing B-1 early in the week will open door to B-2 / Y-1 zone. It can be a very sudden wild ride going down there.
If B-1 acts as support, the gap above to B-0 will be tagged quickly. And it will be very difficult to tell what’s next at that price level.
EURUSD May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Strong breakout above 1.33 did not happen. Instead, a w. upthrust against Y+1 happened early in the week. That put Y-0 and Y-1 into play. Closed the week at Y-1.
Outlook
As mentioned last week, if euro can break Y-0 decisively, Y-2 is the target. That should be the target for early next week as euro ran out of time this week.
From Y-2 a bounce to Y-1 is likely if the selloff is not a strong one.
GBPUSD May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Slow pullback to the support zone as expected. Still my all time favorite!
Outlook
For normal market condition, you can expect B+1 to be retested this week.
The tricky issue is that French election in progress can, and do, swing euro around. Since euro likes to drag cable with it, monitor cable closely if euro jumps suddenly.
USDCAD May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Bounced to Y-0. Held above Y-1. And jumped back up to almost Y+1 by end of week as expected.
Outlook
A short term bottom is likely in place. It is important that B-1 stays as support and not breached from here.
Quick zoom to B+2 will help secure the bottom and lift the support zone to B-0.
Nasdaq 100 May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Just like Dow, consolidation was expected and we got exactly that until Friday. On Friday, NQ gapped thru Y-0 and trapped longs turning into roadkills. Closed the week near its low.
Outlook
NQ closed its huge gap from the week before last one so the primary excuse to drop is used up.
From here, weekly support right below B-1 is in play. Hence if NQ flush below B-1 and snap back up quickly then potential w. spring pattern will emerge. That points to at least a run to B-0.
If initial bounce from B-1 failed to go more than 1% and collapses below B-1, then we have full blown selloff in the making. B-2 to B-3 will be in play and it is not a good idea to pick bottom until after B-2 is tagged.
S&P 500 May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: | Comments
Lawrence’s Comment
Consolidation play worked out on first 4 days of last week. NFP Friday killed the pullback party and the aggressive swing long players are toasted. Tagged 2X tight range target. Closed the week near its low.
Outlook
Tight range breakout points to 2X to 3X target. 2X was tagged last week, so either 3X is going to happen very quickly early next week, or the downside objective is already completed.
If tagging Y-1 leads to a bounce above B-1 swiftly, 1-2-3 long setup from there points to B-0 and potential swing bottom in place.
USDJPY May 07 to May 11 Outlook
Posted by: News Robot | Comments (0)Lawrence’s Comment
Flushed and then bounced. But first reaction pullback failed to tag Y-0 and also failed to hold above Y-1. Closed the week near week low.
Outlook
Flushing process started. The inability to even tagging Y-0 points to short term weaknesses.
Dollar yen at last line of defense here for its long term bullish setup. If it fails to hold above 79 on weekly close, the bottom built last year will likely be revisited again.
A quick rally breaking above B+1 will confirm reversal in place, pointing to retest of Y+1.