Archive for Weekly Outlook
Nasdaq 100 May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Failed to bounce back up in the beginning of the week opened the door to tag Y-2. Interestingly, however, Y-2 was not tagged even after 2 attempts to flush lower. Closed the week below midpoint and Y-1.
Outlook
Out of the 3 indices, NQ is the strongest. Yet it failed to push above Y-1 by week close. The pattern in place is an incomplete upside triangle. Upside triangle is a continuation pattern. In this situation, that means more downside potential.
To invalidate the pattern or to break out of this down trend, NQ has to produce a double bottom against B-1, or, a flush low that snap back up quickly above B-1.
Will be a difficult week ahead.
Dow 30 May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Comparing to S&P, Dow dropped more significantly and displayed weaker price action all week. Of course, we now know JPM was the reason.
Outlook
Similar to S&P, Dow has to find a bottom quickly next week.
Either rally right off the beginning of the week with B-0 turning into support, or finding a bottom quickly above B-2 is needed for any hope that Dow can rally back to B+1.
EURUSD May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Tagging Y-2 in the beginning of the week confirmed our bearish view. Pullback failed to go above Y-1 leading to a push down to Y-3. Closed the week near its low and Y-3.
Outlook
Euro finally forced to tag this zone that was protected for several months. Acceptance at this zone points to further weaknesses down the road.
Next week, however, can drift higher if short term sellers are exhausted. A quick run up breaking above B-0 points to a short squeeze play with B+2 target.
USDCAD May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Quick zoom to B+2 as expected. Closed the week near midpoint.
Outlook
Short term bottom likely in place.
If B-1 failed to act as support, a flush back down to Y-0 / B-2 is possible.
Focus on long side potential from here til 1.08 is tagged.
GBPUSD May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
News from Europe created a new wave of sell pressure across European currencies against US dollar. Cable was forced to break Y-1 leading to a flush to Y-2. Closed the week at its low and Y-2.
Outlook
Tricky juncture. Potential long term top in the making if Y+1 ended up being retested and rejected in a few weeks.
Next week, as long as B-1 can act as support, a run back up to B+1 is likely.
If cable flush below B-2 early in the week, B-0 will turn into strong resistance zone.
AUDUSD May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Tagged target right at the start of the week and bounced. That opened the door to Y-2 as it failed to pop above the resistance area stated last week. Y-2 tagged and closed the week near its low and Y-2.
Outlook
Closed right at critical price level. This coming week will determine if Aussie can snap out of this down trend.
A flush to B-2 and quickly snap back above B-1 will set the stage for rally back up to B+1 and B+2.
S&P 500 May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Failure to bounce in the beginning of the week got us the 3X target mentioned last week. After target B-2 tagged, ES turned range bound and on Friday its failure to breakout upside led to close below midpoint.
Outlook
Higher timeframe support affecting the intraday behaviour.
To be able to resume the daily uptrend, ES has to overcome the B+1 target next week.
Should more bad news hit the market by Monday and that B-1 is breached, trapped longs from last week may cause a flush to B-2 before a bottom can be formed.
USDJPY May 14 to May 18 Outlook
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Flushed to new low but bounced at once back above Y-1. Closed the week above midpoint and Y-1.
Outlook
Another longer term potential bottom in the making. Confirmation would be a breakout above B+1 and that B+1 downto B-0 acting as support.