Archive for Weekly Outlook
AUDUSD Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap up early in the week failed to push above Y+1. Formed a double top and sold off from there. Flushed to Y-2 as expected. Bounced quickly back to Y-1. Closed the week at Y-1.
Outlook
Got the flush to Y-2 and the snap back up to Y-1. But it happened late in the week making it not possible to develop the bounce further.
Early next week as long as Y-1 acts as support, a run to B+1 is likely.
Potential long term bottom in the making. Need coming week to confirm.
EURUSD Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap up in the beginning of the week. Then consistent selling all the way down to Y-2 as expected. Cannot get any better than that. Once 100% previous week range completed, immediately bounced back to midpoint. Closed the week near midpoint.
Outlook
Bottoming action early next week at B-1 will give euro a double bottom that can zoom back up to B+1 area.
Dow 30 Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap up and traded above Y+1 has turned into a false breakout. That set the stage for a selloff to Y-1. Yet right before Y-1 was tagged, Dow rallied all the way back near Monday low. Then euro zone news shock collapsed the stock markets worldwide, sending Dow to close the week at its low.
Outlook
Messy chart. Daytrading was fine last week even though one has to change the view almost everyday.
Dow has closed below previous year close first time this year. This has opened the door to potentially more downside if it cannot bounce back quickly this coming week.
If a swing bottom is going to form, it has to happen quickly.
Strong support at B-2 and Y-3.
GBPUSD Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Swing violently as expected. The unexpected part was that it is to the downside only. Final flush tagged Y-4 and bounced. Closed the week below Y-3.
Outlook
Consolidation likely. B-0 is strong resistance and I do not expect cable to be able to take it out on first 2 tries.
A quick dip below B-1 tagging Y-5 and then snap back up above B-1 points to a push towards B-0.
USDCAD Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap down and consolidated around B-0. Then zoomed higher as expected. Another easy play last week. Closed the week above Y+2.
Outlook
The target of Y+3 should be reached early next week. Strong support at B-0 if it chooses to consolidate.
1.05 historically often act as resistance on quick runups. So early next week tagging 1.05 with no pullback first means potential sell setup will be formed right there.
Nasdaq 100 Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Nasdaq has a cleaner failed breakout than Dow early in the week. Yet it did not drop to Y-1 at all, until euro zone news shock sending dip buyers into panic mode. Closed the week at the low.
Outlook
An oddly shaped trend sell week. That points to high probability of at least 20-25% range expansion to the downside.
Government intervention looming.
Daytrading probably better than swing trading this week as we cannot tell what the officials may do to shock the markets again.
S&P 500 Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Similar to Dow, false breakout to the upside early in the week leading to test of Y-1. Bounced fiercely into NFP then double slam down by euro zone news shock and bad NFP numbers. Closed the week at the low.
Outlook
News driven market has a strong tendencies moving back to the point where the shock started. Hence, Y+1 / B+1 will be in the card once a short term bottom is found.
There is no need to pick bottom. If a bottom is formed, there will be ample time to jump on board for the run back up to B+1 and probably higher.
The nearest support zone is previous year close and January low. Closing that gap would remove the main excuse to go lower.
USDJPY Jun 04 to Jun 08 Outlook
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Breakout to the downside. Completed 200% range expansion then bounced. Closed at Y-3.
Outlook
Back to long term support zone 76-78 again. Consolidation below B-0 is expected with downside bias to tag Y-4 / Y-5.
Will be difficult to trade as we all know BOJ and Japanese government have been quite open about intervention.