Archive for Weekly Outlook
AUDUSD Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
As expected long continuation week for Aussie. Closed the week at week high.
Outlook
The rally last week was a bit weaker than expected. As all other currencies are also in wait and see mode due to crisis in Europe, it is difficult to look for more.
As long as B-0 acts as support, still bullish for Aussie to go higher.
USDCAD Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Continue the consolidation process as expected. Test of Y-1 resulted in a bounce to Y-0 then slow drift back down to Y-1. Closed the week near week low.
Outlook
A clear resistance line has developed over the past 2 weeks. A clean breakout above B-0 which also holding above the resistance line will produce a rally back to B+2.
Failing to breakout upside points to B-2 in play as it is likely to take a flush to take out the weak longs.
EURUSD Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Intervention at its finest – by rumors. No one even dare to touch euro in 2nd half of the week allowing it to drift higher all the way. Closed the week at Y+1.
Outlook
No outlook. Cannot predict how people will react to uncertainty. In this case, if volatility increases, then B+2 and B-2 are both in the radar.
I will not touch this pair until after I get the first 2 swings next week. From there the outlook should be more readable.
GBPUSD Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Looking for a breakout and we got that at the end of the week. Ran straight to Y+2 as well. Closed at week high.
Outlook
Personally I missed the breakout as it was the end of the week and I thought there was not enough time to get the run going so I removed my swing orders. That was stupid.
Cable should have a bit more in it to get to Y+2 and higher. The main problem is that Greece election is this Sunday and can change the game completely. If there is not much swing Sunday / Monday in this pair, then I expect continuation long for this week, looking for B+2 in play.
Dow 30 Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap up to the gap top that Dow was supposed to fill. Spent 1st 2 days to clean up this mess. i.e. fill the island gap and flush back down to form a bottom. Then news shocks hit in waves, Y+1 turning into support right before the big rumor was spreaded. Closed the week at Y+2 and week high.
Outlook
As long as there is no huge surprises from Greece over the weekend, more upside is expected. Y+1 / B-0 is now strong support zone and it will take a lot of effort to break it.
If B-0 failed to hold this market up, there is no real support until Dow is flushed back down to B-2.
Nasdaq 100 Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap up turned into breakout failure. Gave us an excuse to send NQ back down to Y-0. Tagged Y-0 and failed to push it lower since. Then end of week news shock produced a squeeze back up to Y+1.
Outlook
Once Y+1 / B+1 is cleared and turning into support, NQ can go a lot higher, not just B+2 or B+3. There will be enough trapped shorts to push this much higher as this base took almost 2 months to build.
The less likely scenario is that the breakout failed to materialize. Once B-0 is breached we should get B-2 quickly.
S&P 500 Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Gap up then stalled back below previous week close. That staged a flush to Y-0. Yet Y-0 was not tagged like NQ. And multiple pushes against previous week close since. Finally news shock gave ES a reason to zoom higher. Closed the week at week high.
Outlook
B-0 is now very strong support. If Sunday / Monday news shock from Europe failed to take ES below B-0, then B+2 should not be a problem.
USDJPY Jun 18 to Jun 22 Outlook
Posted by: News Robot | Comments (0)Lawrence’s Comment
Consolidation above Y-0 as expected. Originally looked like a breakout to the upside was in the making, until news shock hit late in the week. Got the 200% expansion of the tight range. Closed the week at the low.
Outlook
Short term bullish scenario invalidated. Will be very difficult to trade this week as everyone is aware of the Y-1 / B-2 support area.
As long as B-0 acts as resistance, slight bias towards lower price.