Archive for Weekly Outlook
USDJPY Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Quick fall early in the week due to news shock. Then struggled to hold and failed to go above Y-0. Closed the week above Y-0 but below midpoint.
Outlook
Indecision. Need B-0 turning into support as evidence that it is ready to go higher. Otherwise sideway likely.
USDCAD Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
First test of Y-1 led to pullback to Y-0. Y-0 held very well and gave us Y+2. Then euro zone news shock sending the pair all the way back to Y-1. Closed the week at week low near Y-1.
Outlook
News driven market. The stage is set to flush out the longs from the past few weeks. As long as Y-0 to B-0 acts as resistance, new low is expected for next week.
GBPUSD Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Drifted near B-1 as mentioned last week. That led to a flush below Y-1. Yet news shock from euro zone changed its course and forced a reversal back up to above Y-0. Stopped finally when 100% range of last week is reached. Closed at the week high.
Outlook
A short term bottom is forced in place. It does not matter how it is done. As long as B-0 acts as support, looking for cable to go higher with B+2 as first target.
EURUSD Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Got Y-2 as expected. Intervention type news shock from there is also expected. Closed near the high of the week and above Y-0.
Outlook
euro has not snapped out of its bearish down trend yet. If early next week euro stall from Y+1, then a strong pullback to B-0 or lower is expected. Messy pair to swing trade.
Dow 30 Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Total collapse in the beginning of the week. Yet formed a double bottom from there and zoomed back up to previous week close. Failed from there and gap down to week low again. Right before we get to witness a major selloff, news shock came in and trapped every single bears. Once gap above Y-0, nothing can stop this from going up to Y+1. Closed the week at week high.
Outlook
News driven environment coupled with month end dynamics exaggerated every swings last week. Such messy environment is rare and this week should calm down as the dirty details of the euro zone deals will take at least couple of weeks before they become problems again.
Given the explosive rally we had last week, bears giving up points to B+2 in play.
Nasdaq 100 Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
Early part of the week was a weak drift towards previous week close from below. As that failed to push higher, Y-2 was tagged. Then the multi-stage news shock created a short squeeze to force NQ to close at the week high.
Outlook
Y+1 in play. Taking that out and within 2 weeks B+2 is possible as long as the gap below near B-0 is not challenged.
S&P 500 Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Lawrence’s Comment
News shock from the start of the week failed to damage the bullish technical pattern I mentioned last time. Somehow Y-2 was never tagged in that flush on Monday. Then a double bottom was formed and squeezed higher. Another news shock to force ES lower yet this time cannot even push it down to week low. By the end of the week, a multi-stage news shock sent ES straight up to Y+1. Closed the week at the high.
Outlook
If B+1 failed to act as resistance, Y+2 to B+2 in play. The dramatic turns of events last week has trapped many bears, making it possible to go much higher. All it takes could be just a minor news shock.
AUDUSD Jul 02 to Jul 06 Outlook
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Dropped below Y-1 and popped back up immediately. That put Y-0 in play and tagged Y-0 quickly. Failure to go higher from Y-0 sent it back down to Y-1 again. This time it held up just fine, hence staged an explosive rally to above Y+1.
Outlook
Outside reversal week implies higher price still. Should focus on the long side only until B-0 fails to hold as support.