LC Long Term Ideas
- This topic has 256 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 9 months ago by Lawrence.
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- December 14, 2011 at 5:53 pm #206027LawrenceKeymasterDecember 14, 2011 at 5:54 pm #206028LawrenceKeymaster
The ES selloff to 1200 done.
Now looking for a bottom forming from this 1200 zone to go back up to the gaps above.
i.e. 1260+
December 14, 2011 at 6:10 pm #206029geosingParticipantI was affected by Refco. Did not have anything to do with MF Global, luckily. I have reduced my equity in brokerage accounts rather drastically and now trade with much reduced size. Did this when I read about the IB CEO foray in buying into MFGlobal, as an insider deal. Who knows when the next shoe is going to fall and where. Everyone is cooking the books in an extreme fashion at the expense of Joe SixPack and Jill Winecooler.
December 14, 2011 at 6:16 pm #206030geosingParticipantI am thinking rallies will be of the lockout kind with stocks marked up in gaps to adjust the books. Beginning to behave like a bear market now. What comes after 1260-1280?
December 14, 2011 at 6:22 pm #206024LawrenceKeymasterI need to see how the mkt breadth behaves by year end to figure out what’s next.
December 19, 2011 at 4:41 pm #206025LawrenceKeymasterES sell back down to the 1200 area.
Key levels to watch is whether ES can form a bottom at 1200 downto 1180 zone.
Signs of panic is showing so a flush is in progress.
December 19, 2011 at 6:52 pm #206026geosingParticipantThis post probably belonged here …. sorry for posting in the daytrading thread.
6 consecutive days of close below open.
6 days below MA-200
6 days of close below EMA-9
5 Exact touches of triangle from the October low.
3 Pushes down from top of triangle – December high (12/7)So what happens now? Chop around within the triangle singing “jingle bells”? Fake-out break-out lower to trap short sellers and force some longs to liquidate and move back towards the 2010 Close and close the year “unchanged”? Or just do so from now on? Or really sell off to achieve the triangle break target?
December 21, 2011 at 5:54 am #206145LawrenceKeymasterGot the reversal in the expect Mon to Tue timeframe.
ES 1260 is in play.
Bennie is so predictable. =P
December 23, 2011 at 10:10 pm #206023geosingParticipantES 1260 bagged and tagged, as LC predicted! SPY (also SPX) bounced from the bottom of the triangle to the top in an uncorrected swing. Market just gapped over the 200MA line and closed over the 2010 Close. Is positive close on the agenda or just close it unchanged to keep everyone guessing going forward.
Smartly gap over the longstanding downtrend line on Tuesday and go till year end? Or fade back to the bottom of the triangle one more time? Always amazing how the market can be positioned so precisely.
If the 3 pushes pattern is a continuation pattern, isn’t another downleg probable?
December 25, 2011 at 3:47 pm #206021LawrenceKeymasterOnce the MM move target of the imeediate up leg is used up, that will be the decision point.
The 1-2-3 move that you marked are irregular in height so it is more a down move with 3 legs as oppose to 3 pushes down.
January 3, 2012 at 9:30 am #206022LawrenceKeymasterLooking for a top to form on ES from first few days of Jan.
The gap from last year close should be filled pretty quickly.
No less than 30 pts pullback again.
January 3, 2012 at 9:32 am #206019LawrenceKeymasterIf they are going to close the gap with that 30 pts only, then the top should be in the 1284-1286 area
January 6, 2012 at 8:59 am #206020LawrenceKeymasterGot to 1282 after NFP report today, the top swing zone. Looking for 2 weeks of decline from here.
Worst case is congestion but not much higher prices.
January 6, 2012 at 3:50 pm #206013geosingParticipantOct 27 high 1283.50 is yet to be tagged. Bound to be stops above that swing high. MM on the daily points to 1316. May be a Wyckoff upthrust before a size-able decline? Since you are expecting 2 weeks, I am assuming it will be just a correction and then more upside move? I have 12500-12800 as a topping zone for the Dow.
January 10, 2012 at 1:16 pm #206014LawrenceKeymasterGot 1292 on ES today. Probably the swing top I am looking for.
From there a 40 pt drop will fill the gap below at 1252
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