LC Long Term Ideas

[Lawrence]

Still on track for this one.

[Lawrence]

92 proven to be important resistance and a slide of 17 pts from AH high 97-98 happened.

The problem, however, is that ES has again created another breakout setup that can go either way.

Definitely frustrating for those who are interested in swing trading ES.

[Anna Karenina]

thanks for the comments LC.

[Lawrence]

Breakout of previous week range to the upside and completed 50% expansion based on prev week range.

ES now sitting at dangerous zone with potential snapping back down to mid 70s by this Friday.

Very difficult to trade the short side, however, as euro zone keep feeding news and b.s. out to pop euro higher.

[Lawrence]

you are welcome.

[geosing]

What will be a sign of a top in this kind of market to initiate a swing short position. I guess if you are long, you just stay the course.Hard to go long here. I hope a good January will be good for the rest of the year, from the bull point of view. Behavior so far has been that of a bull market, climbing walls of worry. I thought we would get a good flush during the opex week, even if intra-day, Tuesday after the long weekend was the only chance.

[Lawrence]

I wait for confirmation all the time. In this case a simple reversal week, or a reversal of 2-week at an important price level will do.

[geosing]

TY. Trick is really how to recognize such a confirmation. Probably easier in weeklies, but sure is hard intra-day. I just read that Mr DeMark has his tea leaves pointing to a market top on Tuesday next week between 1338 and 1342 SPX cash. Will have to see how the bots deal with this forecast; probably easy to spike it up on dull volume due to Chinese holiday ahead.

[geosing]

DeMark Link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/demark-says-s-p-500-may-reach-1-342-by-next-week-before-falling.html

[Lawrence]

Chinese new year, for some reason, often marks the top of the stock markets worldwide in the first quarter of a year.

Since Chinese New Year is always New Moon, so astro traders may jump all over it. =)

For me the statistics has been quite strong for many years based on first new moon of the year. Due to the fact that Asian countries will have 1 to 2 days of holidays on Mon and Tues.

So topping out on Tue or Wed is not a surprise.

[geosing]

It almost looked like ES could never trade below prior week low. Happened this week after 5 weeks of Higher highs and higher lows and 7 consecutive higher highs in the weekly. Would be interested in your thoughts on the January PA and close. Drops have been followed by bear flags followed by gap down and yet another bear flag and volume seems to have come down and have stayed down for a long time now, it appears.

[Anna Karenina]

good thread, thanks.

[Lawrence]

Since that peak from last week of Jan, ES has not been able to move higher or lower.

It is locked at a tight range.

When ES eventually move away from this zone a long term trend will be established.

[Lawrence]

Mentioned in real-time chat today I am looking for a long term short on S&P 500 index today.

It is a position that may take a month to fully build up.

The goal is to ride this for a long long time. A year or more maybe?

I found enough reason to believe that we are seeing a repeat of 2000 and more interestingly, 1976-77 to be repeated all over again.

[geosing]

You also mentioned Dow’s Adam/Eve pattern. I see this nicely visible in YM 30′. Is this what you were referring to? What would negate your bearish view, as you evaluate the price action during this coming month. I am assuming we will see a lot of sharp moves, (especially not favoring bears) as you stated that it will be difficult for daytraders.

[Author]

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