Investment Outlook 2019 According to STOPD
Here is the PowerPoint version of my Jan 7, 2019 live presentation at Rotary Club Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong meeting.
Some of the key points in the video that need more explanation are related to the forecasts I made with STOPD on various markets:
Hong Kong Real Estate – expect at least 2 to 3 years of correction. Minimum of 30% drop in price from the peak is expected.
Gold – as long as the red zone holds, it is likely gold will challenge 1500 within a year or two.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – completed 200% expansion, going into correction phase that should last about 2 to 3 years with minimum correction back down to 100% expansion level (the green zone).
Hang Seng Index – picture perfect 200% expansion and topped out. Minimum correction back down to the midpoint of the range over the past 10 years (cyan zone) with potential to flush down to the midpoint of the complete run up since year 1987 (green zone).
Shanghai Composite Index – bubble top that exceeded 300% expansion many years ago. Takes at least 2 times the amount of time spent on the run up to complete the correction. Initial breakdown of 70% points to a second one of same magnitude that will be completed soon (orange zone).
US Dollar Index – once US dollar can clear the resistance area (cyan zone), we are looking for US dollar to go for the 200% expansion in coming few years.
Euro – as long as the resistance of the down channel holds, Euro is going for its breakdown move to at least 1.00 with US dollar (cyan zone) and if chaos is induced, much lower.
British Pound – 200% downside expansion target is set in motion (green zone) with potential to break the down trend if it holds the 100% expansion target (orange zone) in coming 2 years, which can produce a lasting rally for many years.
Canadian Dollar – a very powerful setup in place for Canadian dollar to crash against US dollar. As long as the orange zone holds, we are looking for the US dollar to challenge the all time high against Canadian dollar (green zone) within a a year or two.