Trading Edges That Last
- You May Also LikeSince last update, S&P has experienced its most volatile month ever. However the custom market breadth indices never improved and keep getting worse. As of last Thursday the target zone ...READ MOREAs on last Friday, the 3-day advance issues was short term oversold. Thus it is expected a bounce should happen on Monday and that has already happened. Critical price level of ...READ MORE
Monthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 July 19 close. ...READ MOREThe mega swings in the breadth have successfully forewarned and confirmed the swings of S&P over the past 5 swings. The challenge at this point is that 3-Day Advance Issues ...READ MOREMy monthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Dec 19 close. Reading 1. Long Term ...READ MORETo utilize S&P500 Tick1K Index, we can start from its basic properties of being highly correlated to the bar to bar pattern with Emini S&P (and SPY too) on 5-minute ...READ MOREMonthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2014 Jan 23 close. ...READ MOREIt is time to take a look at the basic statistical behaviour of the Tick Index. Following is a chart of NYSE Tick Index and its 3 distribution graphs. ...READ MOREBoth Tick16 ST and 3-Day Advance Issues are pushed down to slightly negative levels. If they continue to slide a bit more both will enter oversold territory. Since Tick16 LT is in ...READ MOREAfter I posted the breadth bias warning last week. Someone asked for some samples of the potential outcomes from history. Here they are. First one, the one that simply go ...READ MOREMarket Internals 2011-09-25Market Internal Update 2011-05-10Market Internals 2013-07-21Market Internals 2011-12-15Market Internals 2012-12-19Trading with Tick Index: S&P500 Tick1K Index MismatchMarket Internals 2014-01-23Trading with Tick Index: Know Its PersonalityMarket Internals 2012-04-08Market Internals Update 2011-05-03
As Featured In
Market Internals 2013-10-22
Monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 October 22 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) bearish
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) in breakout mode after spending days near Long Term Tick16
3. 3-Day Advance Issues (green line) divergence top against S&P new high
Inference
a. #1 is bearish
b. #2 volatility expansion coming
c. #3 a short term top in the making. If S&P does not pullback significantly while 3-Day Advance Issues going back down to neutral, it will turn into a powerful buy signal.
Review
Inference was correct from last update:
– 3-Day Advance Issues went negative and we got this 3 weeks selloff
– 5% drop with a new high printed right after, "extreme volatility" indeed!
Long Term Outlook
Dow has not make a new high with S&P and Nasdaq on this latest rally. This divergence has happened across the globe. Usually such setup points to the markets having these new highs being wrong.
2 historical scenarios similar to what we have now worth mentioning here. One is year 1929 and the other is year 1998. Both happened on unusual circumstances but having completely opposite outcomes. Check out the charts yourself to see what I mean.
Share