S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Aug 29, 2016
Review of Forecast for Aug 22, 2016
No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Slingshot move materialized. Short term breadth sell mode working out perfectly. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 29, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 26, 2016:
- Breakout setup for 2% or more swing this week in both directions with bias for downside first and week of potential v-reversal play
- 1% move in one direction will likely give us 2% in same direction
- Short term breadth sell mode will register intraday oversold condition easily
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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