S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Oct 31, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Oct 24, 2016

Limited upside as expected. Overall dropped to 1.5% boundary only hence 2.5% downside move not activated. As projected, sudden reversal happened all week with gaps above and below previous trading day extremes. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.

Forecast Starting Oct 31, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 28, 2016:
  • More downside likely
  • A bounce is due on Monday or Tuesday
  • A drop of 1.5% will point to 2.5% slide into end of the week potential

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Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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