S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Apr 27, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Apr 20, 2015
First attempt to go higher last week was capped at the 1.5% boundary as forecasted last week. Yet by mid week the selling failed to produce the strong downside risk scenario as forecasted. That in turn led to an all out rally higher into end of week. Forecast from last week got the first half of the week correct but failed to tell us the end of week scenario as the situation changed mid week. The breadth analog model did its job but it can be better if you track it daily.
Forecast Starting Apr 27, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 24, 2015:
Last few times this scenario happened, we get significant selling within a week
Both upside and down side are capped at 1% this week.
Trend sell in place for more weaknesses in coming 2 weeks.
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Overview
Emini overnight range 1859.75 up to 1907.50
Overnight Midpoint 1883.50
Previous Week Midpoint 1896.25
Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with gap up of ...
Overview Emini overnight range 1859.75 up to 1907.50 Overnight Midpoint 1883.50 Previous Week Midpoint 1896.25 Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with gap up of ...READ MORE
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Apr 27, 2015
Review of Forecast for Apr 20, 2015
First attempt to go higher last week was capped at the 1.5% boundary as forecasted last week. Yet by mid week the selling failed to produce the strong downside risk scenario as forecasted. That in turn led to an all out rally higher into end of week. Forecast from last week got the first half of the week correct but failed to tell us the end of week scenario as the situation changed mid week. The breadth analog model did its job but it can be better if you track it daily.
Forecast Starting Apr 27, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 24, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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