S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jan 18, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Jan 11, 2016


Monday did not produce a flush down of 2% thus the 2% upside was not in play. Custom breadth did not reverse, so we did not get the rally of 3.5% or more. A bounce was produced but not the correct type. The breadth analog model did a fair job for the week.

Forecast Starting Jan 18, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jan 15, 2016:
  • Slingshot flush down of 2% and quick squeeze back up 2% is possible on Monday (or Tuesday due to US holiday on Monday)
  • Bottom out on breadth basis will kick start a rally of 3.5% and more

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Report Snapshot


breadth_forecast_20160115

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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