S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 13, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Jun 6, 2016


S&P not able to range expand much to the upside and given up everything suddenly fulfilled the compression expectation as custom breadth compression continues. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.

Forecast Starting Jun 13, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 10, 2016:
  • Custom market breadth compression continues with major breakout imminent
  • Intraday volatility breakout imminent
  • 1.5% up move points to more upside range expansion in play
  • Potential whiplash move on daily level in the making as 5-day custom breadth in contradicting state against the 20-day ones

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Report Snapshot


custom_market_breadth_20160610

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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