S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 8, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jun 1, 2015
The expectation of volatile price actions was correct. We are looking at the start of a 5% downside move also taking shape. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Jun 8, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 5, 2015:
- Volatile price actions continues this week but will become more directional going into end of the week
- Risk of 5% or more decline still in effect
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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