S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Mild bullish bias pointing to up drift of 1% or more in coming 5 trading days.
Critical decision to be made in the week after should down trend on daily wants to continue.
A move beyond 2% from previous week close is unlikely.
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
As on last Friday, the 3-day advance issues was short term oversold. Thus it is expected a bounce should happen on Monday and that has already happened.
Critical price level of ...
To utilize S&P500 Tick1K Index, we can start from its basic properties of being highly correlated to the bar to bar pattern with Emini S&P (and SPY too) on 5-minute ...
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Review of Forecast for Sep 14, 2015
Another week with extreme swings of 3% up and then 3% down thanks to FOMC interest rate decision. The normal expectation of 1% upside ...
Majority of option traders who understand options tend to focus on the mathematics of VIX while the chart traders who trade S&P 500 Index futures tend to focus on the ...
Many day traders who use Tick Index as part of their market timing tools often find that it changes its behaviour every few weeks. The most obvious issue is that ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 18, 2016
Limited upside as projected. No 1% down move so no follow through to the downside. Breadth sell setups not confirmed yet. The breadth analog ...
Review of Forecast for Dec 14, 2015
Bottoming call worked out. Got the 2.5% and more rally as well. Premium members learned that a complete reversal was expected starting Thursday as ...
Review of Forecast for Jun 6, 2016
S&P not able to range expand much to the upside and given up everything suddenly fulfilled the compression expectation as custom breadth compression continues. ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 19, 2015
Pullback of 1% capped the drop so the 2% and more decline did not materialize. Volatility spike as forecasted. The breadth analog model did ...
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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