Statistics for Traders

Statistics is one of the most misunderstood and abused subject in mathematics (and science). The reason is something we can all easily understand – statistics is something we can all sort of relating to but counter-intuitive when applied in event by event situations.

Our brains are wired that way so that our ancestors can survive in nature. Since human has not evolved into any better forms for quite some time, yet our civilization is advancing in such a pace that even our computers are outdated every year or two, our minds are not that cooperative when it comes to making decisions that are drastically different from the ones that our ancestors faced. The ability to adapt our minds in making proper trading decisions boils down to our ability in applying logical thinking and statistical analysis properly.

It all sounds so complicated but in reality all you have to do is to take time understanding some basic concepts in statistics, then utilize the distilled rules and concepts to make better trading decisions, as oppose to relying on our gut feelings.

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Emini S&P Day Close to Range Distribution

To answer a question from our member, here is the distribution plot of Emini S&P close of the day relative to the range of the day. By representing the price as a percentage of the RTH range, centered at the midpoint, we get a distribution gra ...


Essence of Trading: Only Man-made Roads are Straight and Smooth

Ever observe a tree in detail? From afar, a tree may look tall and sturdy. That is just our impression of the tree. By looking at a tree carefully, you would notice that it is not quite accurate. Its branches are never grown in straight lines. The ...

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SPY Range Expansion Behaviour

This is a study on the probability of SPY expanding its range as a multiple of the average range over 10 days period. The study was originally done by our member smilingsynic. I am just reproducing the results here using data from 1993 up to last Fr ...

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What to Expect After 2 Down Days?  member only

One of my favorite daily level Time Map patterns is that Emini S&P dropped for 2 days significantly. It provides something so consistent to work with over the years you have to wonder why no one talks about it at all.



Trading with Tick Index: Tick1K and its Divergence Signals

Someone asked what I mean by “custom tick divergence” in my real-time commentaries. Here are 5 charts (one day each) for the past week with Emini S&P, $Tick index and my DNO_Tick1K index. (You can expand them to full size for better viewing.) ...


Black Swan 2 - A Simple End of Day ETF Strategy That Works  member only

Some time ago I wrote an article titled The Black Swan that explains the fundamental problem with buy-and-hold strategy when applied onto stock market. This time we are going to take a look at the first of several strategies that can beat buy-and-hold strategy hands down in terms of better risk control and capital deployment.


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Where There's a Rule, There's a Way

The article in Wired magazine is a great reminder to all traders of what modern trading is all about. The article is not about trading, by the way. It is a story of a geological statistician, Mohan Srivastava, who cracked the code of a scratch-n-win ...


Teaching a Grade 4 on Probability

Before summer started, my son was learning probability at school and his teacher gave his class some interesting questions to solve. The background is that they've just learned fraction, decimal numbers, etc. The Coin Toss Game How likely you a ...

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Fascinating Volume and Open Interest Relationship in Emini S&P

As of friday's close, emini S&P has an estimated daily volume of 3,251,000 (more than 3 million), with prior open interest stands at 2,350,000 (more than 2 million). Think about the ratio. The daily turnover is more than the commited overnight pos ...

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Studying Your Data Across All Bar Sizes

Have you ever wonder why you like to use 5-minute bars to trade something, and then, all of a sudden, switch into another time frame like 15-minute bar to monitor another instrument. Why we somehow have different level of comfortability with differen ...

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