The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 August 16 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) below neutral zone going sideway
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) drifting around neutral zone
3. 3-Day Advance issues (green line) dropped down to oversold zone with S&P making new low together
Inference
a. #1 is mildly bearish
b. #2 points to indecision
c. #3 a short term bottom is in the making
Last update pretty much predicted exactly what S&P would do since mid-July:
– S&P drifted higher in multiple broken up swings
– took 2 to 3 weeks to produce the top
– a significant top is now in place
What we do not know at this point is whether this top is a major one or just a short term one. That all depends on the upcoming bounce staged by 3-Day Advance Issues at this point. If S&P can drop significantly more from the current level before Short Term Tick16 going oversold, it will be extremely difficult for S&P to recover from the selloff. Hence a long term top will be in place.
On the other hand, if S&P can hold its ground now and start to bounce, it will have a good chance to recover at least 50% of the selloff so far.
My monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Jan 18 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow ...
Review of Forecast for Feb 29, 2016
Volatile breakout play materialized. Real-time breadth turned bullish since early in the week the swing low was formed. Extreme volatility as forecasted. Swing top ...
The current snapshot of 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2012 Aug 17 Close.
Readings
1. 3-Day Advance Issues having divergence top against S&P
2. Tick16 ST ...
I am going to present the first example trading model in this series that exploits the characteristics of the NYSE Tick Index. Most people focus on the intraday behaviour of ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 17, 2016
Monday did not challenge Friday high, so no directional push towards previous week low. Instead, we got consolidation all week. The breadth analog model ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 11, 2016
First half of the week the 1.5% upside cap looked working but then last 2 days of the option expiration week cleared the resistance. ...
Review of Forecast for Apr 13, 2015
All attempts to go higher last week are capped below the 1% boundary as forecasted last week. Forecast of strong downside risk was also ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 24, 2016
Limited upside as expected. Overall dropped to 1.5% boundary only hence 2.5% downside move not activated. As projected, sudden reversal happened all week with ...
Review of Forecast for Feb 15, 2016
Up swing of more than 2.5% as expected. Extreme volatility warning materialized as S&P500 breaking all nearby intraday resistance levels. The breadth analog model ...
Market Internals 2013-08-16
Monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 August 16 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) below neutral zone going sideway
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) drifting around neutral zone
3. 3-Day Advance issues (green line) dropped down to oversold zone with S&P making new low together
Inference
a. #1 is mildly bearish
b. #2 points to indecision
c. #3 a short term bottom is in the making
Last update pretty much predicted exactly what S&P would do since mid-July:
– S&P drifted higher in multiple broken up swings
– took 2 to 3 weeks to produce the top
– a significant top is now in place
What we do not know at this point is whether this top is a major one or just a short term one. That all depends on the upcoming bounce staged by 3-Day Advance Issues at this point. If S&P can drop significantly more from the current level before Short Term Tick16 going oversold, it will be extremely difficult for S&P to recover from the selloff. Hence a long term top will be in place.
On the other hand, if S&P can hold its ground now and start to bounce, it will have a good chance to recover at least 50% of the selloff so far.
Share