S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jun 27, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Jun 20, 2016


S&P custom breadth downside breakout capped the upside push and led to total collapse after Brexit. Intraday volatility spikes as expected. 2% down registered. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.

Forecast Starting Jun 27, 2016


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 24, 2016:
  • Custom market breadth downside momentum points to more downside likely
  • Intraday volatility expansion expected
  • 1% up move points to 2% or more push in play
  • 2% down move will put 5% downside risk in play
  • Custom breadth oversold on intraday basis will give us a sharp reversal, premium member please refer to special report for more information

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Report Snapshot


custom_market_breadth_20160624

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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Comments
  • smilingsynic June 26, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    I was hoping to dip my toes back into the market after the month of unprecedented chaos in my personal life. But Friday’s action makes it look like I would be risking a tidal wave. This looks like one of those markets in which daytraders can succeed and in which those who hold positions overnight are the ones who are in danger.

    • Lawrence June 26, 2016 at 7:50 pm

      No point to risk overnight play. One announcement from EU, UK or any central bankers coughing will effectively swing ES 10+ pts at the blink of an eye.

      Even during regular session, the moves are very directional and unforgiving for those who are not accustom to such extreme condition.

      It takes full attention and focus to trade in this environment.

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