S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Oct 3, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Sep 26, 2016

Forecast of limited downside of 1.5% was spot. 2% swing up did not happen thanks to Deutsche Bank crisis but bullish bias kept S&P up very well. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.

Forecast Starting Oct 3, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 30, 2016:
  • More upside likely
  • Blowoff top potential
  • Swing top points to weaknesses going into late October

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Report Snapshot


Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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