S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Dec 7, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Nov 23, 2015


(Note: No forecast posted for the week of Nov 30)
Consolidation pullback mode expectation worked out perfectly. Intraday volatility died down as forecasted. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.

Forecast Starting Dec 7, 2015


Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Dec 4, 2015:
  • Sideway consolidation mode this week with slightly bearish bias
  • Volatility is expected to stay low
  • Once 1.5% drop is in place continuation down to 2.5% is likely

Report Snapshot


breadth_forecast_20151204

Short Explanation About The Model


My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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