S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 13, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jul 6, 2015
Even though the situation in Greece is messing up the markets, the down trend in force for the week kept the bulls from pushing S&P higher. The original projection of 5% decline from the week that produced the top of the year so far has been completed. The breadth analog model did a good job last week again.
Forecast Starting Jul 13, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 10, 2015:
Situations with Greece and China will still cause news shock that cannot be predicted by the model
Neutral with mild bearish bias for coming week
Printing +1.5% or more on closing basis will point to the rare cases of all out rally potential
Down trend in force for the 2nd-3rd week from now
Risk of a significant top in place with 10% or more decline is still intact
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 13, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jul 6, 2015
Even though the situation in Greece is messing up the markets, the down trend in force for the week kept the bulls from pushing S&P higher. The original projection of 5% decline from the week that produced the top of the year so far has been completed. The breadth analog model did a good job last week again.
Forecast Starting Jul 13, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 10, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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